Crypto Scan

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Crypto Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 46 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-11-crypto-scan.md

2026-07-17 Crypto Scan — HOOD's Extreme Fully Round-Trips, RIOT The Worst Of A Deteriorating Miner Basket, ADA's Reversal Deepens Further

Crypto stays broadly weak — every major coin remains death-crossed and 37-84% off its 52-week high — but the sharpest single move this cycle is HOOD giving back its entire prior-scan strength: RSI fell from 61.7 to 46.3 and its 30-day print flipped from +21.4% to -7.57%. The miner basket's deterioration flagged last scan has continued: RIOT is now the most oversold name in the equities tier (RSI 26.9, 30D -35.0%), and MARA joined it in real damage (RSI 34.4, 30D -24.8%, 3-month gains erased). ADA's flagged "noise" pop keeps confirming itself as noise — now down on both 7D and 30D. As a risk-appetite read, this stays in contrast with the broad-equity tape, which cooled from a healthier starting point this same cycle (see this cycle's ETF-universe scan) — crypto continues working through a deeper, unresolved drawdown.

Data as-of 2026-07-17 for equities/ETFs and most coins; DOGE-USD and DOT-USD feeds refreshed to current this cycle after being stale at 07-09 last scan. COIN's feed was flagged as rate-limited today and may reflect the prior session's close rather than a live 2026-07-17 print — treat its row with that caveat even though the file's own date stamp reads current. Source: summaries/crypto.json. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-crypto-scan (2026-07-10/11 close).


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Structurally unchanged and still weak — every major coin death-crossed, 37-84% off its 52-week high; the equity proxies show the cycle's real damage, led by HOOD's full round-trip and RIOT's continued slide
BTC dominance / alt read Mixed, no alt-season confirmation — BTC (-1.94% 7D) held up better than SOL/ADA/AVAX/DOT on the week, but ETH/SOL/LINK still outpace BTC on 30D
ETF flows proxy IBIT/GBTC/ETHE/BITO all flat-to-modestly-up, tracking spot closely — no independent flow signal beyond the coins themselves
Miner health Deteriorating further. RIOT is now the most oversold name in the whole crypto universe (RSI 26.9, 30D -35.0%); MARA joined the damage (RSI 34.4, 30D -24.8%, 3M flipped negative)
MSTR/COIN bellwethers Both roughly flat on price this cycle but structurally worse — MSTR's 3M print deepened to -44.5%, COIN's regime downgraded from `downtrend` to `collapse`
Key insight HOOD — last scan's strongest chart in the entire universe — has fully round-tripped: RSI 61.7→46.3, 30D +21.4%→-7.57%, 3M +56.2%→+9.5%

What's Going On

The coin layer hasn't structurally changed: every major name remains death-crossed and sits 37-84% below its 52-week high. BTC ($62,886.23, RSI 47.8) cooled from RSI 54.5 last scan and deepened slightly on 30D (-2.38%, was +1.16%), still in collapse regime. ETH ($1,829.80, RSI 55.6) held its downtrend upgrade from last scan and stayed modestly positive on 30D (+4.69%). SOL ($74.66, RSI 46.0) gave back most of its prior 30-day gain (+16.75%→+3.8%). ADA ($0.16, RSI 44.3) is the clearest confirmation story two scans running: the +35.7% 7-day pop flagged as unconfirmed noise back on 07-07 fully reversed by 07-11, and now it's down again on both 7D (-5.88%) and 30D (-5.88%) — a clean, repeated validation of not chasing an unconfirmed spike. DOGE and DOT both refreshed to current data this cycle after two scans stale: DOGE ($0.07, RSI 37.4) deepened on 30D to -22.22%, and DOT ($0.85, RSI 42.3) improved slightly on RSI while its 30-day print widened to -15%.

The spot-ETF layer (IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO) remains unremarkable, tracking the underlying coins closely — all four sit flat-to-modestly-positive on 30D and stay in collapse regime, 49-63% off their highs. No independent flow signal is visible in this data.

The miner basket is the scan's clearest ongoing deterioration. RIOT ($18.26, RSI 26.9, 30D -35.02%) is now the single most oversold name in the entire crypto universe, worsening from last scan's already-weakest read (RSI 34.3, 30D -19.78%) — its golden cross is still intact but the trend has clearly rolled over. MARA ($10.69, RSI 34.4, 30D -24.82%) joined the damage this cycle, its 3-month print flipping from +21.6% to -8.08%. CLSK ($13.03, RSI 42.6) ticked up slightly in price but its 30-day print deepened to -24.42%. BITQ ($22.12, RSI 34.7, 30D -20.63%) also weakened further. MSTR ($94.85, RSI 39.9) and COIN ($157.12, RSI 45.3) are both roughly flat on price this cycle, but COIN's regime downgraded from downtrend to outright collapse — a real structural step down even without a big price move. HOOD is the cycle's biggest single reversal: last scan's standout at RSI 61.7 and the strongest 30-day/3-month print in the entire universe has fully round-tripped — RSI now 46.3, 30-day flipped from +21.4% to -7.57%, 3-month compressed from +56.2% to +9.51%, price down from $111.97 to $99.96. The "crypto-adjacent equities hold up better than coins" read from prior scans no longer has a clean standard-bearer.

As a risk-appetite gauge: this cycle's ETF-universe scan shows broad equities cooling from a healthy starting point (QQQM/QQQ RSI dropped from the low-50s to the low-40s) while crypto continues working through a deeper, longer-running drawdown that hasn't resolved either direction. The two tapes are both softer this cycle, but crypto's damage remains structurally worse and longer-dated.


What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-11 → 2026-07-17)

Change Read
HOOD fully round-tripped its extreme — RSI 61.7→46.3, 30D +21.4%→-7.57%, 3M +56.2%→+9.51% The cycle's biggest single reversal; the "strongest chart in the universe" no longer holds that title
RIOT deteriorated further, now the most oversold equity in the universe — RSI 34.3→26.9, 30D -19.78%→-35.02% Continues the deterioration flagged last scan; golden cross still intact but the cushion keeps shrinking
MARA joined the damaged names — RSI 45.1→34.4, 30D -7.42%→-24.82%, 3M flipped from +21.6% to -8.08% A name that had been merely "cooling" is now genuinely damaged
COIN's regime downgraded from `downtrend` to `collapse` despite a roughly flat price Structural deterioration without a big price move — worth tracking whether price follows
ADA's reversal deepened further — now negative on both 7D and 30D (-5.88% each) Second consecutive scan confirming the flagged "noise" pop was exactly that
DOGE/DOT feeds refreshed to current (were stale at 07-09 for two scans) — DOGE 30D deepened to -22.22%, DOT's RSI improved slightly to 42.3 Now comparable to the rest of the board on a like-for-like basis
MSTR's 3-month print deepened to -44.47% (was -28.5%) despite a flat 7-day print Structural damage continuing even without fresh price action

How To Read The Board

regime tags (collapse/downtrend/pullback) describe structure, not a trade call — most of the coin layer remains in collapse or downtrend, simply confirming the ongoing multi-month drawdown. The miner/BITQ equities carrying an intact golden cross while showing 20-35% 30-day declines is the key tension this cycle: the long-term crossover hasn't flipped, but the near-term trend has clearly broken for RIOT and MARA specifically — track both signals together rather than either alone. HOOD's round-trip is a reminder that even the strongest chart in a weak universe can fully reverse within one cycle; treat any single-name extreme in this universe as fragile until it holds across at least two scans.


Price Table

Coins

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D 3M vs 52wk High Regime Note
BTC-USD $62,886.23 47.8 -1.94% -2.38% -18.46% -50.17% collapse Cooled from RSI 54.5, deepened slightly on 30D
ETH-USD $1,829.80 55.6 +1.90% +4.69% -24.42% -63.06% downtrend Held its regime upgrade, still modestly positive 30D
SOL-USD $74.66 46.0 -4.37% +3.80% -15.99% -70.51% downtrend Gave back most of last scan's 30D gain
XRP-USD $1.08 43.3 -1.82% -9.24% -27.03% -70.28% collapse Weakened further
ADA-USD $0.16 44.3 -5.88% -5.88% -38.46% -84.21% collapse Flagged "noise" pop confirms itself again — negative on both 7D and 30D
DOGE-USD $0.07 37.4 0.0% -22.22% -30.0% -76.61% collapse Feed refreshed, deepened on 30D
AVAX-USD $6.49 44.2 -3.71% -3.85% -33.37% -81.93% collapse Unremarkable, continued weakness
DOT-USD $0.85 42.3 -3.41% -15.0% -36.57% -82.54% collapse Feed refreshed, RSI improved slightly
LINK-USD $8.19 54.8 +2.89% +1.36% -14.95% -70.49% downtrend Roughly steady

Spot ETFs

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Note
IBIT $36.35 49.8 +0.33% +2.05% -49.39% collapse Tracks BTC spot closely
GBTC $49.71 49.6 +0.30% +1.86% -49.85% collapse Tracks BTC spot closely
ETHE $14.88 53.8 +2.83% +8.06% -62.93% collapse Tracks ETH spot, slightly stronger
BITO $8.69 49.4 +0.23% +1.64% -62.43% collapse Futures-based BTC proxy

Crypto Equities

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D 3M vs 52wk High Trend GC/DC Regime Note
MSTR $94.85 39.9 +0.22% -15.71% -44.47% -79.12% strong-down DC collapse Flat price, 3M print deepened further
COIN* $157.12 45.3 -1.23% -3.76% -25.76% -64.66% strong-down DC collapse Regime downgraded from downtrend; *flagged as possibly rate-limited today — verify freshness
MARA $10.69 34.4 -15.16% -24.82% -8.08% -54.41% down GC downtrend Joined the damaged names — 3M flipped negative
RIOT $18.26 26.9 -12.92% -35.02% +0.83% -37.93% down GC downtrend Most oversold equity in the universe; GC intact, trend still rolling over
CLSK $13.03 42.6 +1.40% -24.42% +8.13% -44.81% down GC downtrend Small price uptick, 30D still deepened
BITQ $22.12 34.7 -7.56% -20.63% -10.73% -29.67% down GC pullback Crypto-industry ETF, continued slide

*(Bonus / crypto-adjacent: HOOD $99.96, RSI 46.3, 7D -10.73%, 30D -7.57%, 3M +9.51%, vs 52wk high -35.03%, GC=False/DC=True, regime downtrend. Fully round-tripped from RSI 70.1 two scans ago and RSI 61.7 last scan — no longer the standout it was.)*


Tier Analysis

BTC Dominance & Momentum (alt season?) — No. BTC held up better than SOL/ADA/AVAX/DOT on the week (7D), but ETH/SOL/LINK still outpace BTC on 30D. Genuinely mixed, not a clean rotation. ADA's second consecutive confirmed reversal reinforces treating unconfirmed alt spikes skeptically.

ETF FlowsIBIT/GBTC/ETHE/BITO posted small, mostly positive 7-day moves that track their underlying coins closely. No independent flow signal beyond spot-price tracking.

Miner Health — Deteriorating further. RIOT is now the most oversold name in the tracked universe (RSI 26.9), and MARA has joined it with a real 30-day decline (-24.82%) and a 3-month print that flipped negative. All three miners retain golden crosses, but the near-term trend has clearly broken.

MSTR/COIN As Bellwethers — Both roughly flat on price this cycle, but COIN's regime downgrade to collapse (without a corresponding price move) is the more interesting structural signal — worth watching whether price confirms the downgrade next cycle.

Key Levels — ADA's -84.2% from its 52-week high remains the widest reference point in the coin layer; RIOT's -37.9% is the narrowest in the equities tier despite being the most technically oversold name in the scan — a reminder that RSI and distance-from-high are separate signals here.

Risk Gauge — Both crypto and broad equities cooled this cycle (this cycle's ETF-universe scan shows QQQM/QQQ RSI dropping from the low-50s to the low-40s), but crypto's damage remains structurally deeper and longer-running — every major coin stays death-crossed versus a broad-equity sleeve that stayed golden-crossed throughout its pullback.


Entry Zones

Ticker Price Zone RSI Setup
RIOT $18.26 Avoid / verify stabilization first 26.9 Deepest oversold in the universe but still actively deteriorating (30D -35.0%), not basing
HOOD $99.96 Watch for a base 46.3 Fully round-tripped from RSI 70+; no longer extended, but no confirmed stabilization yet either
COIN $157.12 Watch for price confirmation of the regime downgrade 45.3 Regime downgraded to collapse without a matching price move — the disconnect is the thing to watch, and today's print may be stale
ETH-USD $1,829.80 Watch for a golden-cross flip 55.6 Still the one coin holding its structural upgrade (collapse→downtrend) two scans running

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH ETH-USD, IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO, HOOD Either the one structural holdout (ETH) or names that cooled from an extreme without a fresh breakdown
⚠️ CAUTION / DETERIORATING RIOT, MARA, CLSK, BITQ Miner basket continues weakening across the board
⚠️ VERIFY FRESHNESS COIN Flagged as possibly rate-limited today; confirm the print before treating the regime downgrade as fully current
🔍 NO CLEAR SIGNAL BTC-USD, SOL-USD, XRP-USD, ADA-USD, DOGE-USD, AVAX-USD, DOT-USD, LINK-USD, MSTR Structurally unchanged or continuing an existing drawdown; nothing newly actionable this cycle

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
RIOT's next print Now the most oversold equity in the universe; a golden-cross loss would confirm the miner basket has genuinely turned, not just cooled
HOOD's next print Fully round-tripped from a two-scan extreme — watch whether it stabilizes here or continues reverting toward the coins' weakness
COIN's price vs. its regime downgrade Regime flipped to collapse without a matching price move — and today's data may be stale; verify the freshest print before drawing a conclusion
MARA/RIOT golden-cross status Both still carry an intact cross despite real 30-day declines — a loss of that cross would be the next confirmation of a genuine turn
ETH's golden-cross status Still the one coin to hold a structural upgrade across two scans — a GC flip would be the clearest confirmation of a turn in the coin layer
Crypto-vs-equity risk divergence Both tapes cooled this cycle, but crypto's damage remains deeper and longer-running — worth tracking whether that gap widens or narrows

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.