Crypto's speculative, high-beta corner staged a full recovery this cycle — RIOT went from the most oversold equity in the entire universe (RSI 26.9) to a healthy RSI 49.1, and the rest of the miner basket (MARA, CLSK, BITQ) moved the same direction — while the core coins stayed structurally unresolved: every major coin remains death-crossed even as most posted real 30-day gains. As a risk-appetite read, that split matters: speculative crypto-equities snapping back faster than BTC/ETH suggests renewed risk tolerance, but the failure of the core coins to reclaim a golden cross means the underlying drawdown hasn't structurally resolved. ETH, SOL, ADA, and LINK all outpaced BTC on the 30-day window — a broad-based coin-layer bounce, though not a clean alt-season signal given XRP, AVAX, and DOT lagged the same window.

Data as-of 2026-07-25 (Saturday) for the coin layer — crypto trades weekends, so BTC/ETH/alts reflect a Saturday snapshot, not the Friday close. Spot ETFs and crypto equities (IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO, MSTR, COIN, MARA, RIOT, CLSK, BITQ) reflect the 2026-07-24 Friday close, since those instruments don't trade weekends. Source: summaries/crypto.json. Prior scan: 2026-07-17-crypto-scan (2026-07-17 close).

The coin layer improved broadly on 30-day momentum this cycle, but its structural state hasn't changed: every major coin remains death-crossed. BTC ($64,250.03, RSI 50.3, as of Saturday) cooled slightly on RSI from 47.8 but turned meaningfully positive on the month (30D +7.58%, was -2.38%), still -49.1% off its 52-week high and in downtrend regime. ETH ($1,869.60, RSI 55.6 — unchanged from last scan) held its 30-day strength and extended it further (+19.48%, was +4.69%), the best 30-day print of the major coins, still -62.3% off its 52-week high. SOL ($74.37, RSI 44.5, 30D +10.06%) and LINK ($8.37, RSI 55.0, 30D +15.77%) both outpaced BTC on the month. XRP ($1.10, RSI 47.4, 30D +5.77%) and ADA ($0.16, RSI 42.5, 30D +14.29%) both reversed from negative 30-day prints last scan — worth some caution given ADA's prior-scan pattern of unconfirmed pops reverting quickly, though this move is broader-based than the earlier single-week spike. AVAX ($6.62, RSI 50.3, 30D +6.43%) improved modestly. DOT ($0.81, RSI 37.2, 30D -3.57%) is the one coin that stayed negative on the month, though less negative than last scan's -15.0%. DOGE ($0.07, RSI 37.5) shows 0.00% change across the 1-day, 7-day, and 30-day windows in this file — flat across the board, likely a rounding artifact of its sub-cent price rather than a genuine freeze.

The spot-ETF layer (IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO) tracked the coin-layer improvement closely, all four moving from roughly flat 30-day prints last scan to +6.9% to +17.6% this cycle, still 49-62% below their respective highs and in collapse regime. No independent flow signal is visible beyond spot-price tracking.

The miner basket is this cycle's clearest and largest reversal. RIOT ($22.53, RSI 49.1, 30D -17.83%) was the single most oversold name in the entire crypto universe last scan at RSI 26.9 — it has fully recovered to a healthy, unremarkable RSI reading, even though its 30-day print is still negative. MARA ($12.12, RSI 46.2, 30D -13.43%, was -24.82%) and CLSK ($14.52, RSI 50.1, 30D -10.54%, was -24.42%) both moved the same direction. BITQ ($23.29, RSI 43.5, 30D -8.67%, was -20.63%) rounds out the recovery. All four retain their golden cross from last scan — the long-term crossover never broke, and the near-term trend has now caught back up to it. This is the biggest single move in this cycle's crypto scan and the clearest read on renewed risk appetite in the most speculative corner of this universe.

MSTR and COIN are diverging from each other this cycle. MSTR ($91.67, RSI 39.1, 30D -2.61%, was -15.71%) improved on the month but its 3-month print deepened further to -46.40% (was -44.47%) — structural damage continuing even as the near-term print gets less negative, still death-crossed and in collapse regime, -77.7% off its 52-week high. COIN ($158.29, RSI 46.7, 30D +5.45%, was -3.76%) flipped positive on the month while its regime stayed collapse — a real price improvement without a matching structural upgrade yet.

As a risk-appetite gauge, this cycle's split matters: the speculative crypto-equities (miners) fully recovering from a worst-in-universe read is the clearest signal of returning risk tolerance in this dataset, but the core coins (BTC, ETH) staying death-crossed even with real 30-day gains means the underlying, longer-running drawdown structure hasn't resolved. Read the miner recovery as the leading edge of a possible broader turn, not confirmation that one has happened.

regime tags (collapse/downtrend/pullback) describe structure, not a trade call — every major coin and ETF proxy remains collapse or downtrend despite this cycle's broad 30-day improvement, simply confirming that the multi-month drawdown hasn't structurally resolved yet. The miner basket's recovery is the cycle's central tension: RIOT, MARA, CLSK, and BITQ all held their golden cross through last scan's deterioration and have now caught back up to it on RSI — a genuine near-term recovery inside a structure that never broke down long-term. Treat that as distinct from BTC/ETH, which improved on 30-day momentum without any change to their death-crossed status. As a risk-appetite framing: crypto's most speculative, highest-beta names moving first and fastest is the pattern to watch — it's either the leading edge of a real turn, or a bounce that fades before the core coins confirm it.

BTC Dominance & Momentum — Broadly positive but not a clean alt-season signal. ETH, SOL, ADA, and LINK all outpaced BTC's +7.58% on 30D, while XRP, AVAX, and DOT lagged. The breadth of the improvement (7 of 9 coins positive on 30D) is the more notable read than any single rotation story.

ETF Flows — IBIT/GBTC/ETHE/BITO all improved in lockstep with the underlying coins, no independent flow signal beyond spot-price tracking.

Miner Health — Fully recovered. RIOT's move from the most oversold name in the universe (RSI 26.9) to a healthy RSI 49.1 is this cycle's single biggest move; MARA, CLSK, and BITQ all confirm the same direction. All four retain the golden cross that never broke through the deterioration.

MSTR/COIN As Bellwethers — Diverging this cycle: MSTR's near-term print improved while its 3-month damage deepened further; COIN's price flipped positive without a regime upgrade. Neither is a clean read either direction.

Key Levels — DOT's -83.3% and ADA's -83.8% from their 52-week highs remain the widest reference points in the coin layer; RIOT's -21.3% is the narrowest in the equities tier now that it's recovered, a reminder that distance-from-high and RSI are separate signals here.

Risk Gauge — The miner basket's full recovery from a worst-in-universe read is the clearest risk-appetite signal in this dataset — speculative, high-beta crypto-equities snapped back before the core coins confirmed a structural turn (both BTC and ETH remain death-crossed). Read the miner move as a leading indicator to watch, not confirmation that the broader drawdown has resolved.

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries — coin layer as of Saturday 2026-07-25, spot ETFs and crypto equities as of the Friday 2026-07-24 close — crypto.