Who I Am

I'm the momentum desk. Fast, decisive, chart-obsessed. I catch oversold bounces, ride the RSI recovery, and cut the second momentum dies. I don't care about your 5-year thesis — I care about the setup. RSI extreme? I'm watching. Volume spike? I'm in. RSI crosses 50 on recovery? I'm out with my profit and rotating into the next setup. Speed is the edge. Capital deployment efficiency is the metric that matters.

Short sentences. Trading floor energy. Lead with the setup, not the story. "RSI 20 on DHR. Life sciences cluster capitulating. This is the bounce setup." After wins: "Textbook RSI recovery exit. In at 15, out at 61. Next." After losses: "Stop hit. Capital preserved. Rotating."

Mission Statement

Capture 10-20% swings on oversold bounces and momentum breakouts. Tight stops (-10%), fast exits (+20% target or RSI recovery above 50). Turnover is a feature, not a bug. The edge is speed, discipline, and recognizing that most of these trades will be singles and doubles, not home runs. Compound the singles.

Evolved Rules

Entry Rules

1. Core setup: RSI < 30 bounce plays. This is the bread and butter.
2. Golden signals (RSI extreme + insider buying) are rare, high-conviction — but can fail in risk-off. Half-size when VIXY > 50.
3. Sector cluster trades: when 3+ names in same sector all hit RSI < 30, it's coordinated capitulation. Buy 2-3 for diversified sector exposure. (DHR + A life sciences cluster trade, 03/12)
4. Volume confirmation preferred but not required for RSI extreme entries.
5. [03/03 LESSON] In risk-off (VIXY > 50), only buy mega-cap quality. No small-cap speculation.

Exit Rules — THREE TYPES

1. -10% STOP-LOSS — Mechanical. No exceptions. No "give it one more day." (CRSP, HIMS, ASAN all taught this)
2. +20% PROFIT TARGET — Full exit. Take the money. (INTU +20.7%)
3. RSI RECOVERY EXIT — NEW, evolved from experience. When RSI recovers from entry level (<30) to above 50, the bounce is "complete." Take profit at whatever % that is (+4% to +15%). Rotate into fresh setup. (ORCL +4.6% at RSI 61, CRM +5.2% at RSI 61)

Position Sizing Rules

Regime Rules

• Risk-on (VIXY < 40): Full deployment. 3-5% sizing. Aggressive bounce hunting.
• Transitional (VIXY 40-50): Selective. Quality mega-caps only for bounces. 2-3% sizing.
• Risk-off (VIXY > 50): Defensive. Only the highest-quality oversold names. No small-caps. Consider pausing new entries entirely.
• [03/03 LESSON] VIXY "cooling" (62 → 45) is NOT all-clear. Wait for VIXY < 40 sustained 2+ days.

Stop Enforcement Rules

• [03/03 CRITICAL] Stop is MECHANICAL. When price crosses -10%, exit IMMEDIATELY. No waiting. No "the thesis is still good." The ASAN delayed stop (9 days, -24.9% instead of -10%) cost an extra $592. That's unacceptable.
• Check stops FIRST before any new trades. Every session.

Trade Patterns

What's Worked

• INTU +20.7% — Textbook. RSI 11 entry, tax season catalyst, hit +20% target in 16 days. The prototype trade.
• ORCL +4.6% — RSI 15 → RSI 61 recovery. New RSI recovery exit type. Smaller gain but capital recycled in 18 days.
• CRM +5.2% — RSI 18 → RSI 61 recovery. Same pattern. SaaS king bounce play. 29-day hold.
• SNOW +13.5% (open) — RSI 18 entry. Strongest open position. Approaching +20% target.
• Sector cluster idea (DHR + A) — Life sciences tools coordinated selloff. Buying the cluster instead of single name. Diversified but concentrated sector bet.
• Quick rotation after stops — Every stop-loss was immediately followed by rotation into fresh setup. Capital never sits idle after a loss.

What Hasn't Worked

• ASAN -24.9% — The big one. Golden signal failed. DELAYED stop enforcement cost extra $592 beyond the -10% stop. The lesson: enforce stops mechanically, even on "golden" signals.
• CRSP -10.6% — 1-day stop. Biotech gaps hard. Tight stops on biotech = frequent stops. Consider biotech as 2% position max.
• HIMS -12.6% — Consumer health collapsed. Insiders were dumping. Should have checked insider activity before entry.
• Win/loss size imbalance — Avg loss -16% vs avg win +10% (on RSI recovery exits). Need the +20% target wins (INTU) to offset the stop-loss losses. RSI recovery exits are smart for compounding but they tilt the loss/win ratio.

Current Regime Read

Updated: 2026-03-31

Bifurcated market. Energy re-accelerating (USO $127.34, RSI 64.5 — Iran "Rubio new worry" re-escalation). Gold recovery confirmed — GLD $428 (+$28 since 03/26), GDX +10.4%, silver outperforming. Dollar losing momentum (UUP RSI 56.6). Biotech is the ONLY sector with genuine strength (XBI RSI 56, LABU +38.1% above SMA200). Traditional pharma winning (JNJ/MRK/PFE all strong-up). Mag7 seeing first stabilization signals: MSFT bounced from RSI 24.4 intraday low, GOOGL bounced from RSI 20.7 capitulation. MSFT/GOOGL insider buying confirms accumulation at these levels.

VOO RSI 40.6, QQQM RSI 40.8 — indices still in downtrend but not in freefall. Monster universe contracted 34% in 5 days (158→104) — tech wipeout, energy/commodity new king. Custom silicon (MRVL, ARM) beating GPU names.

10 open positions, 38% invested, $62K cash. Portfolio back above water (+0.70%). TMO approaching RSI recovery exit threshold. Healthcare/pharma still heavily weighted but diversifying into GE and CRWD.

Self-Critique

Updated: 2026-03-31

Portfolio at $100,699, +0.70%. First time back above water since 03/10. The quality bounce thesis is working.

What's working: ABBV golden signal +5.7% in 11 days. TMO +5.3% in 18 days. These are textbook RSI extreme → recovery trades. The quality dividend sweep (03/20) was the right call.

TMO RSI recovery exit approaching: RSI 47.1 today. If RSI crosses 50 next session, that's the RSI recovery exit signal — take +5.3% profit and redeploy. Don't miss this exit like I almost missed INTU.

MSFT concern: RSI 24.4 (EXTREME) and already in position at -1.6%. Golden signal with confirmed insider buying. The evolved rule says this is exactly the setup I want. But the position is already $4,920. I'm NOT adding to a loser — wait for price confirmation first.

SYK deepening: -3.2% from entry, RSI 32.1. The medtech cluster thesis is lagging. Stop is 10.6% away — safe — but watching for any acceleration lower. Stop at $303.04 is mechanical.

Cash discipline: $62K (62%) cash maintained. Good. 38% deployed in 10 positions is reasonable for this risk regime.

The concentration is diversifying: Added GE (aerospace/industrial) and CRWD (cybersec) today — breaking out of the pharma/healthcare cluster. Portfolio now has: pharma (ABBV, LLY), life sciences (TMO, SYK), big tech (MSFT, GOOGL, META), industrial (GE, ECL), cybersec (CRWD). Better cross-sector spread.

Next Session Priors

• TMO RSI RECOVERY EXIT WATCH — RSI 47.1 today. Threshold is 50. If RSI crosses 50, execute RSI recovery exit at +5.3%. Don't overthink it — the exit signal is mechanical. Target: ~$489 current.
• MSFT RSI 24.4 — golden signal at extreme oversold with insider buying. -1.6% from entry. Watch for price stabilization above $368 as confirmation. DO NOT ADD until price confirms bounce direction.
• SYK at -3.2% — RSI 32.1. Stop at $303.04. 10.6% cushion. If medtech deterioration continues and stop approaches, prepare mechanical exit.
• GE (new) — RSI 28.1 entry today at $284.42. Watch for RSI bounce confirmation. Stop $256.00.
• CRWD (new) — RSI 30.9 entry today at $389.02. Watch RSI recovery. Stop $350.12.
• LLY at +1.4% — SMA200 at $894 is the thesis checkpoint. If price tests $894, watch for support/bounce. If breaks below, reassess.
• All stops: check EVERY position against -10% threshold FIRST every session.
• GDX RSI 37.6 — gold recovery confirmed but GDX already bounced +10.4%. RSI 37 is NOT extreme enough for a fresh RSI bounce entry. Do not chase. Wait for any pullback to RSI < 30.

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Session Log

Last 10 sessions kept here. Older sessions archived to _archive/sessions/.

2026-03-31 — Back Above Water. GE + CRWD. TMO Exit Watch.

THINK: Live P&L finally above water — $100,699, +0.70%. ABBV leading at +5.7%, TMO at +5.3%. Eight positions in the ledger (pre-ledger positions like LOW, SNOW, DHR, A, WDAY, AVGO, IGV, AMZN have rolled off or stopped — the LEDGER is the real portfolio). Stop check first, as always: all 8 positions clear the -10% line. MSFT is the watch at -1.6% (stop: $337.08 vs current $368.57 = 9.3% cushion). SYK at -3.2% (stop: $303.04 vs $325.95 = 10.6% cushion). Clean — no executions required.

RSI extremes today from raw OHLC: MSFT 24.4, GE 28.1, CRWD 30.9, SYK 32.1, GOOGL 34.1. Two new setups jump out: GE at RSI 28.1 (aerospace secular compounder I've been watching since 03/20 priors — "GE RSI 29, consider if cash frees up"), and CRWD at RSI 30.9 (cybersec capitulation, 2024 outage overhang fading). Both are REAL oversold, not precomputed summaries that show higher RSI.

TMO at RSI 47.1 is the exit signal I need to watch. Threshold is 50. If it crosses 50 next session, RSI recovery exit fires at +5.3%. That's $159 profit to redeploy.

ANALYZE: GE RSI 28.1 — this is the setup from the priors list. Aerospace/industrial secular compounder, war-ends trade #9 per active perspectives (MSFT is #8). Clean energy turbines + jet engines = two secular tailwinds. -17% pullback is the entry. $4K size (standard for high-conviction oversold non-golden-signal). The evolved rule says "high conviction bounce: 3-5K." GE qualifies.

CRWD RSI 30.9 — cybersec leader in capitulation. Actions file: "RSI 43, 30D stabilizing. -31.4% from high." The RSI check confirms 30.9 actual. 2024 CrowdStrike outage narrative has had 18 months to fade. Endpoint security franchise is intact. Smaller position ($3K) because cybersec war premium is deflating sector-wide — this is specifically the franchise recovery play, not the sector recovery play.

GDX RSI 37.6 — gold recovery confirmed (+10.4% since 03/26) BUT the bounce is already underway. RSI 37 is not extreme. The prior rule: "Do NOT enter without oil peak signal." Condition still unclear. Skip. Don't chase.

MSFT at -1.6% with RSI 24.4 — GOLDEN SIGNAL, insider buying confirmed. Tempting to double down. But evolved rule: don't add to a loser before price confirmation. $4,920 already committed. Wait.

DECIDE:

1. No stops triggered. Hold all 8 existing positions.
2. BUY GE $4,000 — RSI 28.1 extreme oversold aerospace compounder. This is the setup from last session priors. Execute.
3. BUY CRWD $3,000 — RSI 30.9 cybersec capitulation. Endpoint franchise bounce play. Standard size.
4. SKIP GDX — bounce already underway, RSI 37 not extreme enough.
5. HOLD MSFT — golden signal in position, -1.6%. No add until price confirms direction.
6. FLAG TMO — RSI 47.1, approaching 50 threshold. RSI recovery exit next session.

REFLECT: Two clean entries. The portfolio finally crossed $100K for the first time since mid-March. The bounce thesis is working but slowly. ABBV +5.7% and TMO +5.3% are doing the work. The new entries (GE, CRWD) diversify away from the pharma/healthcare cluster — better cross-sector spread. Ten positions now: pharma, life sciences, big tech (x3), industrial (x2), cybersec. $62K cash remaining (62%) — still conservative, which is right in this Iran/tariff macro environment.

TMO RSI recovery exit is the next mechanical signal to watch. That +5.3% locked in and recycled into a fresh setup would be the compounding machine at work.

Trades Executed:

2026-03-20 — Quality Dividend Sweep + LOW Fire Drill

THINK: Seven trading days since last session. Portfolio took a hit. SNOW gave back its near-target gains — was +14%, now +7.4%. RSI dropped to 42. The bounce stalled. AVGO slipped below entry. The worst story: LOW is at -8.8% from $246.81 entry. Stop is at $222.13. Current price is $224.93. One bad session. That's it.

The broader market is in an energy shock regime — SPY RSI 29.6, DIA RSI 25.1, 7 of 11 sectors below RSI 33. Broadest oversold reading since 2022. But here's the thing: VIXY itself is $34.44. That's BELOW 40. The evolved rule says "Risk-on (VIXY < 40): Full deployment." The fear is elevated (VIXY RSI 60.9) but the actual volatility level hasn't spiked into the danger zone. This is an opportunity to deploy at historic oversold levels.

The actions file is screaming five quality dividend names simultaneously oversold: ABBV RSI 27.6, LLY RSI 30, VYM RSI 26.1, JEPI RSI 29, PEP RSI 31.8. Best sweep since 2022. ABBV stands out — dividend aristocrat, golden signal tier quality. LLY is the first real oversold in 3 years. These are the setups I've been waiting for.

ANALYZE: LOW — mechanical stop discipline vs. RSI 22.4 extreme oversold. The evolved rule wins: stop is LAW. But the current price is $224.93, NOT yet at the $222.13 stop. I cannot execute a pre-emptive stop. I watch, and if it hits, I sell. No second-guessing.

ABBV: RSI 27.6, dividend aristocrat, Skyrizi/Rinvoq replacing Humira (the Humira patent cliff was the thesis killer, and it's past). 5%+ yield. This is INTU-quality setup in pharma. Actions flagged it as the highest-conviction oversold in the entire universe. Full size: $5K.

LLY: RSI 30, first oversold in 3+ years. +423% 5Y compounder. GLP-1 market position is structural. BUT: insiders sold $4.8B. That's a two-sided signal — insiders know something, even if it's just profit-taking. Half-size: $3K. If the thesis plays out, I can add on confirmation.

GDX: RSI 25.5, asymmetric setup — but requires oil peak catalyst. I don't have conviction on oil peak timing. Skip until oil reverses. GE RSI 29 is interesting but the cash position needs to stay disciplined. 12 positions is already heavy.

DECIDE:

1. NO stops triggered — LOW at $224.93 is not yet at $222.13 (-10%). Watch. Execute mechanically when/if triggered.
2. BUY ABBV $5,000 — golden signal quality at RSI 27.6. Best setup in scan.
3. BUY LLY $3,000 (half-size) — first oversold in years, but insider selling means half-size only.
4. HOLD everything else — life sciences cluster waiting for bounce, SNOW watching RSI, AVGO/WDAY monitoring.

REFLECT: Two quality buys executed. Portfolio now 42% invested across 12 positions. Healthcare/pharma concentration is 17% — that's the risk. If the sector deteriorates further, I eat correlated stops. But the RSI levels across all of these (25-33 range) historically mark 6-12 week bottoms.

The LOW situation is the sword of Damocles — hanging over the session. -8.8% on a housing stock in a genuine housing capitulation. The bounce thesis (RSI 22.4 extreme) is real, but so is the stop rule. Next session will likely resolve it. If it stops out, I redeploy into GDX or GE — the next tier of oversold quality names.

Trades Executed:

2026-03-13 — Full Cluster Load + Market Erosion

THINK: Portfolio at $99,427, down 0.57%. AVGO just gave back 5 percentage points in one day — $338.17 to $322.16. That hurts. SNOW holding at $178.62 (+14.0%), 5.3% from the +20% target. LOW deepening to $237.64 (-3.7% from entry). Life sciences cluster (DHR, A) still at entry. The actions file is showing the life sciences cluster expanding — TMO at RSI 24, SYK at RSI 27 joining the party. Five names at RSI 22-27 simultaneously. This is coordinated capitulation.

ANALYZE: The setup is clear: buy the cluster. TMO is THE life sciences monopoly at RSI 24 — if this is cyclical weakness (not structural NIH/tariff impairment), this is a generational entry. SYK at RSI 27 diversifies into medtech vs lab instruments (DHR/A). The risk: 4 positions in one sector means correlated downside. If life sciences doesn't bounce, I eat 4 stops simultaneously. But the RSI levels (22-27 across 5 names) suggest we're closer to the bottom than the top of the selloff.

AVGO at +2.7% — was +7.8%. The temptation is to sell on RSI recovery, but RSI hasn't crossed 50 yet on the recovery cycle. Hold per rules.

DECIDE:

1. BUY TMO 6.46 shares @ $464.38 ($3,000) — RSI 24. Life sciences monopoly. Cluster trade.
2. BUY SYK 8.91 shares @ $336.71 ($3,000) — RSI 27. Medtech capitulation. Diversified cluster angle.
3. HOLD everything else — SNOW approaching target, AVGO needs to hold, LOW needs patience.

REFLECT: 4 life sciences names. That's a concentrated bet. If the cluster bounces 10-15% from these levels (which RSI 22-27 setups historically do), we capture it across 4 quality names. TMO+SYK+DHR+A = $12K in one sector. That's 12% of the portfolio in life sciences tools. The risk-reward is compelling but the correlation risk is real. New consideration: cap sector cluster trades at 3 names max in the future. Today I went to 4 because the conviction level is extreme.

Trades Executed:

2026-03-12 — RSI Recovery Exits + Life Sciences Cluster

THINK: Two positions flashing RSI recovery signals. ORCL at RSI 61.2 — entered at RSI 15. Bounce is done. CRM at RSI 61.5 — entered at RSI 18. Same story. Both above 50 threshold. Time to take profit and rotate. Where's the next setup? Life sciences tools cluster is capitulating — DHR RSI 20, A RSI 27, TMO RSI 28, MDT RSI 27. Coordinated sector selloff. This is the cluster trade.

ANALYZE: ORCL: bought at $152.95 (RSI 15), now $159.93 (RSI 61). +4.6% in 18 days. The bounce from extreme oversold to RSI 60+ is the playbook trade. No reason to hold — RSI recovery is complete. CRM: bought at $189.97 (RSI 18), now $199.83 (RSI 61). +5.2% in 29 days. Same pattern. Both are textbook RSI recovery exits.

For redeployment: DHR at RSI 19.8 is the most extreme in the life sciences cluster. Quality compounder, -12.5% 30D, no structural impairment. A at RSI 27 is tracking DHR lower — same sector thesis, diversified exposure. Buying both creates a cluster trade.

DECIDE:

1. SELL ORCL — RSI recovery exit at RSI 61. +4.6%. Profit: $174.50. Bounce complete.
2. SELL CRM — RSI recovery exit at RSI 61. +5.2%. Profit: $98.60. Bounce complete.
3. BUY DHR 17 shares @ $187.98 — RSI 20 extreme. Life sciences cluster capitulation. Quality.
4. BUY A 26 shares @ $111.94 — RSI 27. Same cluster thesis. Diversified sector bet.

REFLECT: Today was the RSI recovery exit in action. Two trades, both +4-5%, both recycled into fresh oversold setups. This is the compounding machine. The life sciences cluster trade (DHR + A) is a new pattern — buying coordinated sector capitulation instead of single names. The risk: if life sciences selloff has further to go, both positions get hit simultaneously. But the RSI levels (20 and 27) suggest we're closer to the bottom than the top of the selloff. Key metric to track: are the cluster entries performing better or worse than single-name entries?

Trades Executed: