Crusoe / Lochmiller hardens incumbent-electrical bear case

Thesis

Crusoe / Lochmiller hardens incumbent-electrical bear case

  • Type: thesis-shift (subtype: hardens)
  • event_id: 2026-05-02-eaton-incumbent-bear-hardens
  • Source: Crusoe / Chase Lochmiller AI stack economics (49-min talk hosted by @apoorv03; full transcript at inputs/podcasts/_transcripts/2026-05-02-crusoe-chase-lochmiller.txt)
    • parent_event: 2026-05-02-crusoe-lochmiller-transcript
  • Shift: Lochmiller (CEO Crusoe) on record that Eaton + Schneider — the legacy electrical primes that sit at Layer 1 of our voltage stack — "have fundamentally not innovated in the last hundred years," and are at structural risk from solid-state transformers + 800V DC + power electronics built on modern wide-bandgap semis. This is operator-side validation of the existing perspective's "incumbents-monetize-the-door, challengers-monetize-the-wall" framing, but from a major customer of the incumbents specifically calling out their stagnation.
  • Effect on thesis: Strengthens the bear case for Layer 1 incumbents. Tightens the asymmetry argument — the new entrants (AOSL, NVTS, VICR, POWI, BESI) get more of the value capture if the incumbents stay frozen. Adds an explicit "incumbent risk note" to README's Where Real Money Gets Captured section, and a new catalyst (ETN/Schneider response signal) to Watch For.
  • Per-ticker: ETN ↓ (incumbent moat weaker than consensus), POWI ↑ (topology IP wins if challengers eat share), VICR ↑ (VPD), AOSL ↑ (OpenVReg reference), BESI ↑ (hybrid bonding cross-thesis). MPWR neutral here (already on Layer 3 — separate dynamics). GEV / VRT covered separately in ai-power-bottleneck log when that perspective converts.
5 events
DateTypeEvent
May 3 ArticleAI Power — Week in Review (Apr 27 – May 3, 2026) May 1 ArticlePicks-and-Shovels: Power Semis & AI Data-Center Power Delivery May 28 CatalystNVDA Q1 FY27 Earnings (superseded cadence date — 2026-05-28) May 1 Deep DiveMPWR - Monolithic Power Systems Deep Dive May 26 InvestigationCPU Shortage Thesis — First-Principles Derivation

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