• Type: spark (subtype: conversion)
• event_id: 2026-05-03-oil-200-scenario-conversion
• Source: Production perspective — 2026-05-01-oil-200-scenario; pre-absorption parent perspective at 2026-04-10-iran-war-oil
• Shift: Perspective converted to research/ directory + log format on 2026-05-03 as part of perspective backfill.
• Effect on thesis: None substantively. Operational change to enable per-shift calibration + cross-perspective affects: graph. Parent linkage to us-energy-dominance preserved.
• Per-ticker (initial reads): All key tickers carry forward from production. Demotion stance preserved.

Pre-conversion frozen state (informational, not log entries)

The thesis evolved from "Iran war oil shock → $200 oil" through several phases:

• 2026-02 — Original "Iran-war-oil" perspective (the parent, since absorbed into us-energy-dominance)
• 2026-04-10 — Bifurcated into us-energy-dominance (structural) and oil-200-scenario (acute crisis)
• 2026-04-12 — Stage-2 fertilizer cascade observation: CF +51% 3M validated the transmission
• 2026-04-26 — Demoted from base case to tail risk (named trigger never broke)
• 2026-05-01 — Cascade reversed; oilfield-services piece reabsorbed by us-energy-dominance

If we mass-backfill earlier shifts (deferred per master brief Stage 5), each prior refresh gets its own event entry.