• Type: spark (subtype: conversion)
• event_id: 2026-05-03-war-ends-playbook-conversion
• Source: internal — Stage 5 third-paradigm pilot per event-sourced-research-os. First non-physics-down perspective (paradigm: macro) to convert; tests whether the directory + log format holds for flip-arc / concentrated-rotation theses.
• Shift: Perspective copied into 2026-05-03-war-ends-playbook (last-refresh date prefix per the dated-naming rule) with current projection (README.md) reflecting state as of 2026-05-01. Pre-conversion thesis frozen at production 2026-05-01-war-ends-playbook.
• Effect on thesis: None substantively. Operational change to enable per-shift calibration + cross-perspective affects: graph. Going forward all new shifts log here, not in production.
• Naming observation (kept as forward note, not retroactive edit): the file name 2026-05-01-war-ends-playbook.md and the id: war-ends-playbook describe the origin of the thesis (war winds down → diversified rotation playbook). The content as of 2026-05-01 is the evolved form: concentrated long mega-cap tech + Asian semis. Production name field already reads "War Ends Playbook (Concentrated Tech Rotation)" — the rename has begun. Future refresh may decide to fork: keep war-ends-playbook as the historical lens (ceasefire trigger watch-for retained) and spin up a new risk-on-tech-rotation perspective for the concentrated-long thesis. Not done at conversion time to keep scope clean.
• Per-ticker: No directional change.

Pre-conversion frozen state (informational)

Pre-2026-05-03 thesis, sources, and watch-fors live in production at 2026-05-01-war-ends-playbook. That file is frozen at its 2026-05-01 last-refresh state per the research/ isolation rule — no retroactive edits. The README.md here is the current projection (post-conversion); the production file is the snapshot as-of conversion.

Origin (informational, not log entries):

• 2026-03-26 — Original "War Ends Playbook" drafted. Diversified 19-trade rotation thesis (consumer discretionary, housing, India ETFs, airlines, oilfield services rolling over to risk-on once ceasefire triggers). Archive: 2026-03-26-war-ends-playbook.
• 2026-04-10 — First retrospective archive at _archive/2026-04-10-war-ends-playbook.md. AMZN promoted to #1 trade.
• 2026-04-26 — Major retrospective: 19-trade playbook had 3 winners and 16 losers. Lesson codified: "name a theme, name 3-5 picks max." Concentrated cohort emerged: AMZN, GOOGL, NVDA, MSFT, EWY, EWT.
• 2026-05-01 — Final pre-conversion refresh. 13 branches retired with verdicts; concentrated long survivors all +20-32% 30D, all RSI 62-73, all near 52-week highs. Production frozen at this state.

The granular pre-conversion history isn't backfilled here. If we ever decide to mass-backfill (deferred per master brief Stage 5), the prior shifts get standalone event files generated from production prose + archives.