Source

Previous: [2026-04-03-war-ends-playbook.md]

Update — April 14, 2026: PUSHED OUT — Naval Blockade Delays Everything

Don't buy laggards yet. The Hormuz naval blockade pushes the "war ends" timeline further out. Even if a ceasefire happened tomorrow, Semafor reports 4 months to normalize (infrastructure repairs, tanker backlogs, crew confidence, insurance). That puts the earliest normalization in August 2026.

But the market is acting like war already ended. SPY +1.7%, QQQ +1%, VIX crushed. AMZN now $208 (RSI 72 = overbought). The market is front-running resolution while the blockade is literally ongoing. This is either genius or complacency.

The laggard re-rate thesis is still valid — just the timeline extends to H2 2026 at earliest. Don't chase AMZN at RSI 72. Wait for the actual normalization catalyst (ceasefire + oil below $100 sustained + Hormuz reopened to tanker traffic).

See:

Status: ACTIVE — Oil's first pullback ($138→$128) + AMZN breakout validates the quality laggard thesis

The most interesting development this week: AMZN ripped 10% to $238 while oil pulled back 7.4%. This is EXACTLY the rotation the playbook predicted — quality tech laggards re-rating as the energy premium cools. AMZN at RSI 71 from a death cross setup just weeks ago is the first confirmed "war-ends" trade working in real-time, even without an actual ceasefire.

Oil pullback context: USO $128 (fr...