R15 continuity — no new tape on VST/TLN, RSI changes are window-roll, posture unchanged

Update

R15 continuity — no new tape on VST/TLN, RSI changes are window-roll, posture unchanged

  • Type: refresh (subtype: log-only-continuity)
  • event_id: 2026-05-20-ai-power-bottleneck-r15-no-new-tape-continuity
  • Source: R15 current-week research desk cycle — workflow/RUNS.md 2026-05-20 r15-current-week-research-desk-cycle. R15 freshness backfill on the 5/19 tape did NOT add new bars for VST/TLN (both still 2026-05-18 in cache); CEG IS fresh-5/19 but at the same $260.67 close as R14 already captured.
  • Verdict — no posture change. The R14 cohort-split frame holds: IPP leg weakening (CEG/VST/TLN regulatory + valuation drag, not demand), equipment leg holding on contracted backlog (BE/GEV). The R13 sharpening (equipment leg is the cleaner expression of "generation gates AI capex") is reinforced by R15's BE-conviction-doc capture in today's intake harvest (the salvaged 2026-05-12 dumb-money Discord conviction doc) — third-party validator of the equipment-leg thesis at the same time-point.
  • RSI window-roll caveat: R15 RSI readings (VST 33, CEG 33, TLN 38, BE 54, GEV 46) differ from R14 RSI readings (VST 27, CEG 32, TLN 38, BE 41, GEV 39) on IDENTICAL underlying bars (no new 5/19 tape for VST/TLN/BE/GEV). These differences are precompute window-roll artifacts (the 14-day RSI window rolled forward 1 day; the highest prior close fell out). They are NOT real oversold-healing or thesis change. Important to read RSI here with this caveat — VST RSI 27→33 is NOT a buy signal; the price is unchanged.
  • Operational "broken" gate clarification reaffirmed: the implicit "broken" gate (RSI sub-25 + 30D < -25%) for at least one of CEG/VST/TLN is still the operational read. VST 30D -14.3% on unchanged 5/18 price is closest to but well off the gate. Should be stated in README body at next refresh.
  • Watches unchanged (→ SCANS): FERC Crane / Three Mile Island injection-rights decision (June/July 2026); PJM capacity collar extension through 2029/30; CEG Calpine debt and interest-expense refresh. Both regulatory catalysts remain the cleanest near-term resolution catalysts.
  • Per-ticker (R15 tape):
    • CEG → $260.67 (R14: same 5/19 close), RSI 33 (window-roll), 7d -3.91% (window-roll bounced 7d from R14's -11.1%), 30d -9.21%
    • VST → $136.75 (still 5/18 stale), RSI 33 (window-roll from R14's 27), 7d -6.52%, 30d -14.32% — closest to operational broken gate
    • TLN → $324.21 (still 5/18 stale), RSI 38 (unchanged), 7d -13.1% (window-roll from -15.5%)
    • BE → $261.34 (R14: same 5/19 close), RSI 54 (window-roll from 41), 30d +19.73% — equipment leg holds; new Discord conviction doc resharpens the bull frame
    • GEV → $1011.80 (R14: $1012.25, slight flat), RSI 46, 30d +2.18% — same equipment-leg pattern
3 events
DateTypeEvent
May 4 ArticleCambrian Thesis — AI supply chain 2x2 May 29 UpdateEnergy Candidates May 29 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan

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