R25-C refresh: voltage-stack thesis validates, WOLF re-rate corrected

Update

R25-C refresh: voltage-stack thesis validates, WOLF re-rate corrected

  • Type: refresh (subtype: stale-right)
  • event_id: 2026-05-22-r25c-ai-power-delivery-refresh
  • Source: published/research-notes/2026-05-22-r25c-ai-power-delivery-stale-perspective-refresh.md and published/insight-candidates/2026-05-22-r25c-ai-power-delivery-decision.md, grounded in the R25-A scan bucket published/scan-result-buckets/2026-05-22-r25a-friday-current-tape-broad-refresh.json.
  • Shift: The perspective was stale-right, not stale-wrong. The 18-day gap hid a strong voltage-stack tape move: 18 of 20 key tickers were green over 30 days, with wide-bandgap / equipment names driving the 3-month strength. The README's named make-or-break catalyst, MPWR Q1 2026, resolved positively: earnings beat, management raised the capacity target from $4B to $6B, and optical-power Communications grew 33% QoQ. ETN remained the cohort laggard, which supports the incumbent-bear leg rather than invalidating it.
  • Effect on thesis: Refresh, do not fold or retire. The current projection now treats MPWR Q1 as a positive resolved catalyst and keeps the Layer 1 incumbent-risk read live. WOLF gets an explicit correction: the +211% 3-month equity move is a post-Chapter-11 balance-sheet re-rate, not proof that the substrate-share question resolved. Operationally, Wolfspeed remains an open check because Q3 FY26 gross margin was still -27%.
  • Per-ticker: MPWR ↑ — positive catalyst resolution. ETN ↓/watch — incumbent laggard confirms the bear case. WOLF watch-only — equity repaired, operational substrate-share question unresolved. AOSL / NVTS / VICR / POWI / BESIY remain challenger-beneficiary watches.
6 events
DateTypeEvent
May 1 ArticlePicks-and-Shovels: Power Semis & AI Data-Center Power Delivery May 3 ArticleAI Power — Week in Review (Apr 27 – May 3, 2026) May 29 ScanMonster Scan Jun 20 ScanMonster Scan Jun 16 ScanMonster Scan May 28 CatalystNVDA Q1 FY27 Earnings (superseded cadence date — 2026-05-28)

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