Source

The most original mechanism twist in the set — and the bridge between the forced-buying and nothingburger camps. "Macro Moover" (moomoo macro community) argues the danger is NOT index rebalance day but the book-build window (early-to-mid June) when long-only funds must fund the ~$50–75B allocation by selling their most-liquid holdings.

Key claims:

• The mechanical NDX rebalance is small (~$3–5B, ~2% ADV); per-ticker forced selling is trivial (NVDA ~$359M, AAPL ~$301M). On the rebalance leg the author AGREES with the nothingburger case.
• The real drain is the discretionary "funding pocket": NVDA/AAPL/MSFT/AMZN get sold to raise IPO allocation cash during the book-build.
• Macro buffer is gone: bank reserves down ~$560B ($3.626T → $3.067T); RRP drained from ~$694B → ~$1.85B. "The elastic buffer that made ARM's 2023 IPO a non-event is gone."
• Second supply wave (~$7–10B) at ~Q1'27 when float doubles via lockup release.

Lane use: relocates the liquidity-drain test from a dated index event to the T-7→T-1 book-build window — testable against pre-IPO Mag7/AI-infra tape.

Date caveat: the post displays "June 2, 2025"; content is unambiguously about the June 2026 listing (cites the June 12 date and current reserve levels). Almost certainly a 2026 typo — captured under 2026-06-02; verify true post date before citing the date itself.