• event_id: 2026-06-16-livestock-disease-phase-0a-refresh

Context: Phase 0a qualitative refresh, 12 days after promotion to ACTIVE. Summaries stale (2026-06-12 precompute); no numerics per Phase 0a rule.

Key question for this refresh: has any screwworm detection beyond the USDA 20 km infested zone (the stated alert trigger) been reported since 2026-06-04?

Qualitative read: no confirmed out-of-zone detection has surfaced in available context. The USDA sterile-fly release program (the same SIT approach that achieved eradication in 1966) was already operational at open; 4M sterile flies per week aerially deployed over the Zavala County, TX zone. Twelve days is consistent with an early containment posture — the sterile-fly program needs several fly-generation cycles (roughly 3 weeks per generation) before its efficacy can be confidently read. The absence of an out-of-zone detection in this window is neutral-to-mildly-positive for containment but is not confirmation.

Thesis state: MONITORING LANE HOLDS. The alert trigger (any detection beyond the 20 km zone) has not fired. The perspective is correctly structured as event-gated: the protein-rotation leg stays dormant, the clean up-chain expression (ELAN, animal-health herd-spend) maintains its relative-strength character, and the rest of the complex continues to trade on the larger consumer/GLP-1 macro rather than cattle-disease signals.

What did NOT change:

• The alert trigger definition is unchanged: an out-of-zone APHIS detection escalates this to priority high.
• ELAN is still the single clean expression of the thesis — it wins on herd-health spend across any livestock disease vector (cross-protein hedge) and has shown relative strength vs the complex.
• ZTS is still explicitly not this trade (franchise issues unrelated to screwworm).
• The protein-rotation leg (TSN/HRL/SFD/poultry names) remains conditional on dispersion that isn't in the tape.

Next scheduled information events:

• APHIS detection updates: event-driven, no fixed calendar — track via USDA APHIS NWS situation reports.
• ELAN Q2 2026 print (~early August): first opportunity to see if NWS parasiticide (Negasunt™/Tanidil™) demand is registering in the cattle segment numbers.

Narrative arc: event-driven, currently tracking toward the containment outcome. If the sterile-fly program holds and no out-of-zone detection is reported through August, this perspective moves naturally toward MONITORING (thesis partially de-risked) and eventually RESOLVED-containment with a retrospective. If an out-of-zone detection fires, this flips to crisis/escalation immediately.

No new tickers, watchlist changes, or ACTIVE.json updates in this pass. Prose and watch-fors updated in README; numerics deferred to Phase 0b.