• event_id: 2026-06-16-war-ends-playbook-phase-0a-full-rerun-captures

Fresh captures scanned: 34 tweets, ~20 Discord, ~40+ Reddit, ~11 article (all 2026-06-16). Grep for: ceasefire, war, defense, reconstruction, Ukraine, Iran, G7, PANW, CRWD, FTNT, NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, EWY, EWT, TSM.

Key captures that changed the read:

1. US-Iran ceasefire cluster (Semafor × 5 + Sherwood News): "Trump wants Iran in 'rearview mirror'"; "Oil prices hit three-month low over US-Iran truce"; "Broad skepticism over Iran-US truce"; "Republicans and Democrats unite: Trump's Iran nuclear deal needs a Congressional vote"; "Trump signals Ukraine not a priority"; "Oil tumbles below $80 to 3-month low on US-Iran deal." This is the single densest geopolitical-de-escalation batch since the perspective opened — the closest the tape has come to a "war ends" catalyst in the original spirit of this thesis.

2. Ukraine de-prioritization (Semafor: "Ukraine talks set to return to the fore" + "Trump signals Ukraine not a priority"): These together confirm that the Moscow-Kyiv standoff is being sequenced as a secondary priority after Iran. This is NOT a reopen catalyst — the original trigger was a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire driving housing/consumer re-rate; Iran peace is a different conflict with different rotation beneficiaries.

3. G7 discord (Semafor: "G7 leaders convene in France amid signs of discord"): Transatlantic allies divided on Iran and Ukraine. Vmaxpax tweet flags "binary events — last day of G7 summit" around $TKMS (KNDS / Thales adjacent defense names). Macro noise, not a thesis mover.

4. Defense spending impasse (Semafor: "Defense spending impasse raises fall shutdown threat"): Senate Democrats playing hardball on defense appropriations. Potential pressure on the rotation source (LMT/NOC/RTX) that previously fed the cybersec leg — not actionable here since the cybersec leg binary catalysts are resolved.

5. Paradis Macro Report June 16 (tweet): Names "FOMC · US/Iran Peace Deal · AI Trades & Positioning" as the catalyst cluster. Confirms macro texture.

Verdict: Iran ceasefire is the most direct "war-ends-adjacent" catalyst to date. It validates the original thesis genre (geopolitical de-escalation = risk-on) but not the specific thesis (wrong war, wrong rotation legs). No reopen. Monitoring status confirmed. The original 19-trade rotation legs are retired with verdict; the surviving AI-supercycle concentrated-long signal lives in ai-power-bottleneck.

Prose update: README updated with a "What changed — 2026-06-16 refresh" section documenting these captures and the no-reopen verdict. Frontmatter last_refreshed was already corrected by the prior Phase 0a pass.