DRAM parabolic-launch monitor — status update 2 (4 refined triggers re-evaluated)
DRAM parabolic-launch monitor — status update 2 (4 refined triggers re-evaluated)
Question: As of 2026-06-17 (~3.5 weeks / ~16 trading days after the 2026-05-22 status-1 baseline), did $DRAM fire any of the 4 refined triggers from the 2026-05-26 status-1 update? Verdict: None of the 4 fired. $DRAM continues to track the memory cohort tightly (DRAM/MU ratio +1.1% vs its 20-day mean — well inside the ±10% band), holds firmly above SMA20, and shows no autonomous-flow volume spike. The one substantive change is intra-cohort rotation: the heat has moved from the DRAM/HBM makers (MU/HY9H.F) to the storage names (WDC RSI 75.7, STX 73.8). Cohort is strong-but-not-extreme; standing-watch retained.
What we're asking
Status-1 (2026-05-26) retired the original 2026-05-10 absolute-price triggers and replaced them with 4 refined, correlation-aware triggers. Task TASKS-RESEARCH.md:187 calendar-scheduled this re-evaluation for ~mid-June. Data is a fresh managed fetch + precompute this session (no stale read).
What we found
Cohort tape (precompute summary, 2026-06-17)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D | 30D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU (DRAM/HBM maker) | $1043.19 | 61.6 | +10.3% | +7.8% | +53.1% |
| DRAM (ETF) | $69.95 | 63.9 | +11.8% | +12.1% | +41.8% |
| STX (storage) | $1066.07 | 73.8 | +19.3% | +21.4% | +43.9% |
| WDC (storage) | $712.13 | 75.7 | +29.4% | +33.7% | +55.3% |
| HY9H.F (SK Hynix GDR) | $1365 | 60.9 | +11.0% | +6.6% | +33.2% |
| SIMO (controllers) | $307.12 | 65.0 | +10.5% | +8.1% | +28.1% |
| EWY (Korea basket) | $205.08 | 57.2 | +3.8% | +9.8% | +16.5% |
(RSI/price from data/summaries/memory.json; ratio/streak/volume math below computed from data/stocks/{DRAM,MU}/ohlc/3m.json, 53 aligned bars 2026-04-02 → 2026-06-17.)
Trigger evaluation — none fire
| # | Refined trigger (from status-1) | Reading 2026-06-17 | Fire? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DRAM/MU price-ratio diverges >10% from rolling 20-day mean | ratio 0.06705 vs 20d-mean 0.06634 = +1.08% | ❌ no |
| 2 | DRAM closes < SMA20 for 5 consecutive sessions while MU > its SMA20 | DRAM +11.8% above SMA20; max consecutive days below (last 25) = 1 | ❌ no |
| 3 | Cohort-wide RSI > 75 across 3+ memory names (peak-cycle up-trigger) | only WDC 75.7 > 75 (STX 73.8 near); 1 of 3+ | ❌ no |
| 4 | DRAM vol > 3× 30d-avg on a day it diverges from MU by >5% | today 40.8M = 0.97× 30d-avg (42.1M); 0 fire-days in window | ❌ no |
Three observations
(a) DRAM still tracks the cohort, slightly lagging. The DRAM/MU ratio fell from 0.0703 (5/22) to 0.0671 (6/17) — DRAM rose +32% while MU rose +39% over the window. No autonomous froth (ratio not running ahead), no ETF-specific fade (ratio not collapsing). The "derivative-of-MU" read from status-1 holds.
(b) Intra-cohort rotation: storage now leads. At status-1 the cohort was bunched at RSI 60–66 with the HBM names (MU/HY9H.F) leading on price. Today the storage names lead on heat — WDC (RSI 75.7, +33.7% 7D) and STX (73.8, +21.4% 7D) are the hottest; MU/HY9H.F sit mid-pack (RSI ~61). The supercycle bid has broadened from HBM into NAND/HDD. The DRAM ETF (63.9) sits between, as expected for a basket.
(c) Volume base stepped up, not blown off. Status-1 noted DRAM 30d-avg vol ~16M; it's now ~42M, and today's 40.8M is in-line (0.97×). That's ETF liquidity deepening as it matures — the opposite of a one-day blow-off spike. SMA200 still null (ETF launched ~Apr 2026, ~53 bars); SMA20 remains the only technical anchor.
Verdict + reasoning
- None of the 4 refined triggers fired in the ~16 trading days since status-1. The trigger redesign continues to hold up: DRAM behaves as a tightly-correlated cohort derivative, not an autonomous flow signal.
- The actionable change is rotation, not a trigger. The peak-cycle breadth tell (T3) is the closest to firing — WDC is over the line and STX is at the doorstep — but it's the storage sub-cohort heating up, not the DRAM/HBM makers. Worth flagging for the next standing-watch refresh: if WDC + STX + a third name (SIMO 65, MU 61.6) push >75 together, T3 fires on a storage-led breath, which the original DRAM/HBM framing wouldn't have anticipated.
- Standing-watch retained, triggers unchanged. No re-calibration needed — the 4 refined triggers are doing their job. Calendar-revisit ~early-to-mid July (next ~3-week cadence).
- Cross-link: ties to the cross-thematic-basket RSI-breadth refinement (
TASKS-RESEARCH.md→ "Refine standing-watch trigger: cross-thematic-basket RSI breadth") — today's storage-led heat (WDC/STX) is exactly the kind of within-basket migration that a per-cohort RSI trigger captures but a single-name (DRAM-only) watch would miss.
Carrier notes
- Managed fetch (MU/STX/WDC/EWY/SIMO/DRAM) +
precompute memoryrun this session, 2026-06-17. HY9H.F (2026-06-15) and Samsung 005930.KS (2026-06-16) lag one session per foreign-market calendar — immaterial to the triggers (all keyed on DRAM/MU). - RSI cited from the precompute summary (canonical price-truth); note the OHLC
rsi_14for DRAM reads ~57.7 (different window/source) — the summary's 63.9 is the figure of record. - Triggers 1/2/4 computed in-script from OHLC closes/volume/SMA20 (code does the math; not eyeballed).
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/trend figures): desk pre-computed watchlist summaries as of the artifact date —
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json.
Related
8 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.