Chemicals Scan
Chemicals Scan
Bifurcated sector — commodity chemicals (DOW, LYB) deeply broken while specialty/coatings (PPG, ECL, DD, LIN) hold up. DOW (RSI 31.8, -15.1% 30D, -25.8% from high) is the only near-oversold name and the weakest in the group. PPG is the lone strong momentum name (RSI 65.5, +16.4% 30D). The industrial-gas anchors (LIN, APD) are flat/basing.
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-18 (Fri 06-19 Juneteenth, closed). LYB, SHW, PPG are 2d stale and APD, DD are 1d stale from yfinance throttle — flagged inline.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Split tape — commodity petrochemicals (DOW -15% 30D, LYB -15% 30D) are the laggards near oversold, while coatings/specialty (PPG +16% 30D, ECL +10% 30D, DD) and industrial gas (LIN, APD) hold steady. No clean sector trend |
| Key insight | DOW (RSI 31.8, weak-down, -25.8% from high) is the only name approaching oversold but it's the weakest fundamentally-trending name — a falling-knife setup, not a quality pullback. PPG (RSI 65.5, strong-up, golden cross, +16.4% 30D) is the lone clean momentum name |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPG | $120.65 | 65.5 | +7.1% | +4.86% | +16.39% | +16.87% | -9.58% | 🔒 Hold (06-16, 2d stale) |
| SHW | $322.44 | 59.7 | +5.1% | +4.09% | +6.77% | +0.80% | -15.07% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| ECL | $269.12 | 59.4 | +3.8% | -0.02% | +9.82% | +4.31% | -12.98% | 🔒 Hold |
| LIN | $512.15 | 52.0 | +0.4% | -1.66% | -0.46% | +4.56% | -1.46% | 🔒 Hold |
| DD | $47.95 | 51.7 | +0.6% | -2.05% | +2.99% | +10.61% | -9.40% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| APD | $281.75 | 45.1 | -0.3% | +0.10% | -3.43% | -0.22% | -9.01% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 1d stale) |
| LYB | $62.59 | 34.9 ↓ | -6.6% | +1.28% | -14.68% | -11.17% | -25.43% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| DOW | $31.73 | 31.8 ↓ | -6.9% | -2.55% | -15.07% | -14.50% | -25.76% | ❌ Don't Buy |
Tier Analysis
Strong-Up / Hold (RSI 60-66):
PPG (RSI 65.5, strong-up, golden cross, uptrend regime, +13.2% vs SMA200, +16.4% 30D, +16.9% 3M) is the single clean momentum leader — coatings outperforming commodities. SHW (RSI 59.7, weak-up but downtrend regime, death cross, still -15.1% from high — bounce within a downtrend) and ECL (RSI 59.4, up trend, +9.8% 30D, -13.0% from high) round out the firmer band.
Mid-Range / Flat (RSI 45-52):
LIN (RSI 52.0, strong-up, golden cross, +9.6% vs SMA200, only -1.5% from high but flat 30D — basing regime, the steady anchor), DD (RSI 51.7, strong-up, golden cross, +14.4% vs SMA200, +10.6% 3M — quietly constructive), APD (RSI 45.1, weak-down, basing, -3.4% 30D — the soft industrial-gas name). These are the holding-pattern names: structurally intact, no momentum.
Approaching / Oversold (RSI 32-35): LYB (RSI 34.9, weak-down, -14.7% 30D, -25.4% from high — but golden cross technically intact above SMA200) and DOW (RSI 31.8, weak-down, -15.1% 30D, -25.8% from high, -13.3% vs SMA50) are the two broken commodity-petrochemical laggards. Both oversold by RSI but in active downtrends — falling-knife territory, not quality-pullback buys.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOW | $31.73 | 31.8 ↓ | -15.07% | Near-oversold but weak-down trend + -25.8% from high; commodity-petrochemical falling knife — need RSI <30 AND a floor near SMA200 ($29.09) before any contrarian look |
| LYB | $62.59 | 34.9 ↓ | -14.68% | Same commodity-petrochemical weakness; -25.4% from high, weak-down — watch for stabilization above SMA200 ($55.84), not buyable yet (06-16, 2d stale) |
| DD | $47.95 | 51.7 | +2.99% | Cleanest structural setup (strong-up, golden cross, +14.4% vs SMA200, only -9.4% from high); alert for an RSI dip to 40-45 as a quality re-entry (06-17, 1d stale) |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | PPG, ECL, LIN | Strong-up / up trends, golden crosses intact — hold, PPG the cleanest momentum |
| 🔍 WATCH | DD | Strong-up + golden cross, only -9.4% from high; best quality re-entry on a dip |
| 🔍 WATCH | SHW, APD | RSI-trend conflict — SHW bouncing in a downtrend, APD soft/basing; need trend confirmation |
| 🔍 WATCH | LYB | Oversold-ish (RSI 34.9) but weak-down; only watch for an above-SMA200 floor |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | DOW | RSI 31.8 but weak-down trend, -25.8% from high — commodity falling knife |
What Changed
- Commodity vs specialty split widens — DOW (-15.1% 30D) and LYB (-14.7% 30D) are the laggards; coatings/specialty (PPG +16.4%, ECL +9.8%) and DD hold up
- DOW the weakest name — RSI 31.8, -25.8% from high, -13.3% vs SMA50; only near-oversold name but in an active downtrend
- PPG breaks out — RSI 65.5, strong-up, golden cross, +16.4% 30D / +16.9% 3M — the lone clean momentum name in the group
- Industrial gas anchors flat — LIN (RSI 52, -1.5% from high, basing) and APD (RSI 45.1, -3.4% 30D) holding steady with no momentum
- DD quietly constructive — strong-up, golden cross, +14.4% vs SMA200, +10.6% 3M, only -9.4% from high
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Commodity petrochem (DOW/LYB) -15% 30D vs specialty (PPG/ECL) up | Sector is bifurcated — don't treat "chemicals" as one trade |
| DOW RSI 31.8 but weak-down + -25.8% from high | Oversold ≠ buyable — this is a downtrend, not a quality pullback |
| DD strong-up + golden cross + only -9.4% from high, RSI 51.7 | Quietly the best-structured name for a pullback re-entry |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Treating DOW's RSI 31.8 as an oversold-buy in a quality name | DOW is the weakest-trending name in the group; oversold RSI in a weak-down/-25%-from-high name is a knife |
Open Questions
Related
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