Chemicals Scan
Chemicals Scan
Sharp split tape: the two commodity-chemical names (DOW RSI 23.3, LYB RSI 21.9) are washed out and collapsing — both -25 to -28% over 3M, sitting right on SMA200 with down/collapse regimes — classic falling-knife territory, NOT clean oversold-quality. The coatings/industrial-gas/specialty side (SHW, PPG, LIN, ECL) is healthy and grinding up, RSI 60-68. APD is basing flat. DD shows RSI 95.5 / +179% 30D / +224% vs SMA200 — a corporate-action artifact (un-adjusted spin/split), NOT a tradeable signal; flagged, not actioned.
Latest bar 2026-06-25. All numbers from precomputed
summaries/chemicals.json.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Bifurcated — commodity chems (DOW/LYB) capitulating (RSI 22-23, but `down`/`collapse`, on/below SMA200 = falling knives, not buys); specialty/coatings/gases (SHW/PPG/LIN/ECL) healthy uptrends RSI 60-68 |
| Key insight | DOW (RSI 23.3) and LYB (RSI 21.9) are washed on momentum but in active downtrends right at SMA200 with negative 1-3yr returns — these are value-trap setups, not the post-bottom flag→breakout the book wants. PPG (RSI 64.5, strong-up, golden cross, +17% 3M, +14.4% vs SMA200) is the cleanest confirmed uptrend. DD reading is a data artifact — ignore |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs SMA20 | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DD | $138.05 | 95.5 | strong-up | -4.40% | +179.11% | +203.61% | +143.7% | -12.61% | 🚫 Data artifact (un-adj. spin/split) |
| ECL | $281.47 | 68.6 | up | +0.82% | +11.02% | +6.81% | +6.9% | -8.99% | 🔒 Hold (death cross flag) |
| SHW | $339.08 | 66.3 | up | +4.05% | +8.94% | +6.39% | +8.7% | -10.69% | 🔒 Hold (death cross flag) |
| PPG | $122.37 | 64.5 | strong-up | +1.31% | +11.71% | +16.95% | +5.2% | -8.29% | 📈 Accumulate (cleanest uptrend) |
| LIN | $524.39 | 60.3 | strong-up | -0.14% | +2.15% | +6.17% | +2.7% | -1.93% | 🔒 Hold (basing, near high) |
| APD | $280.86 | 45.3 | weak-down | -0.82% | -3.02% | -3.60% | 0.0% | -8.80% | 🔍 Watch (basing flat) |
| DOW | $29.16 | 23.3 | down | -7.67% | -16.49% | -25.36% | -11.8% | -31.79% | ❌ Falling knife (on SMA200) |
| LYB | $55.68 | 21.9 | down | -6.36% | -18.48% | -27.61% | -11.8% | -33.67% | ❌ Falling knife (collapse) |
Tier Analysis
WASHED BUT BROKEN / AVOID (RSI <24, active downtrend):
DOW (RSI 23.3, down, -16.5% 30D, -25.4% 3M, -31.8% from high, sitting -0.2% from SMA200) and LYB (RSI 21.9, collapse, -18.5% 30D, -27.6% 3M, -33.7% from high, -0.7% from SMA200). Both are technically golden-crossed only because the slow average hasn't rolled over yet — the live regime is down/collapse with negative 1-3yr alpha. These are commodity-chemical value traps catching the knife, NOT the bottom→pop→flag→breakout the book requires. Do not buy. Watch for a base + RSI reclaim of 40 before treating either as oversold-quality.
CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT / healthy uptrend (RSI 60-68):
PPG (RSI 64.5, strong-up, golden cross, +17.0% 3M, +14.4% vs SMA200, -8.3% from high) is the cleanest — a real uptrend with room. LIN (RSI 60.3, strong-up, golden cross, basing, only -1.9% from high) is the quality anchor but flat 30D (+2.2%). SHW (RSI 66.3) and ECL (RSI 68.6) are both up but carry death-cross flags and trade below/near SMA200 — grinding higher but structurally less clean; hold-grade, not fresh entries.
NEUTRAL / basing: APD (RSI 45.3, weak-down, basing, flat at SMA20, -8.8% from high) — coiled, no edge yet.
EXTENDED/TRIM: None on legitimate readings (DD's 95.5 is an artifact).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPG | $122.37 | 64.5 | +11.71% | Cleanest trend-hold structure (strong-up, golden cross, +14.4% vs SMA200). Add on a pullback toward SMA20 ($116.30) rather than into the +17% 3M run |
| APD | $280.86 | 45.3 | -3.02% | Basing flat on SMA20 with golden cross intact; a turn back up through SMA50 ($290.66) with rising RSI would confirm a fresh trend |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | PPG | Strong-up + golden cross + breadth room; add on dips, not chases |
| 🔒 HOLD | LIN, SHW, ECL | Quality uptrends; LIN near high, SHW/ECL grinding with death-cross flags |
| 🔍 WATCH | APD | Basing flat — wait for an SMA50 reclaim |
| ❌ AVOID | DOW, LYB | RSI 22-23 but active down/collapse regimes at SMA200 — falling knives, not oversold-quality |
| 🚫 IGNORE (data) | DD | RSI 95.5 / +179% 30D is an un-adjusted corporate-action artifact — file as data bug, do not action |
What Changed
- DOW and LYB capitulated hard — both now RSI ~22-23, -25 to -28% 3M, and have fallen to within 1% of their SMA200; momentum is washed but the trend is still actively down.
- PPG is the cleanest mover on the healthy side — strong-up, golden cross, +17% 3M.
- LIN sits at its high (-1.9%) but is flat 30D — quality consolidation, not breakout.
- DD reading is corrupt — +179% 30D with price +143.7% above SMA20 is mathematically a corporate-action (spin-off/split) un-adjustment, not a real move.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| DOW RSI 23.3 / LYB RSI 21.9 both at SMA200 in down/collapse regimes | Commodity-chemical washout is a falling-knife, not a tradeable oversold-quality bottom yet |
| PPG strong-up + golden cross + 14.4% vs SMA200 | Only clean confirmed uptrend with room — the trend-hold candidate of the group |
| DD RSI 95.5 / +179% 30D / +143.7% vs SMA20 | Corporate-action data artifact — flag to engine, never trade off it |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Reading RSI 22 commodity-chem names as "oversold buys" | A washed RSI inside a `down`/`collapse` regime sitting on SMA200 with negative multi-year alpha is a value trap, not the post-bottom flag the book requires |
Open Questions
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.