• Type: refresh (subtype: weekly data + monitoring-check)
• event_id: 2026-06-26-china-structural-discount-eow-full-scan-refresh
• Source: 2026-06-26 EOW scan files — 2026-06-26-macro-commodities (FXI RSI 23.4 + dollar context), 2026-06-26-etf-universe (KWEB RSI 28.5 / FXI 23.4 overview); perspective data table 2026-06-26.
• Shift: The offshore-VIE complex pushed toward capitulation extremes: KWEB -4.9% 7D RSI 28.5 (-44.8% from 52wk high), FXI -4.8% 7D RSI 23.4 (-24.8% from high), BABA -8.7% 7D RSI 17.0 (-50.8% from high), BIDU -5.9% 7D RSI 28.6, JD -6.7% 7D RSI 27.0. BABA RSI 17 is the most extreme reading in the entire perspective watchlist. ASHR (onshore A-shares, no VIE) held at RSI 51.1 with only -3.9% from 52wk high, in strong-up trend. The KWEB↔ASHR spread is now its widest since the perspective was born (~41 points off high). All three structural discounts are compounding simultaneously: VIE/governance (spread widening), CCP-action tail (ADR fears + dollar stress on USD-denominated assets), and macro overhang (FXI freefall reading into COPX -11.51% 30d via China demand destruction). The dollar breakout (UUP RSI 72.9) amplifies USD-denominated Chinese asset stress.
• Effect on thesis: ACTIVE status confirmed. The further-discount scenario named in the perspective is the live one: discount is deepening, not narrowing. Still not a setup — RSI 17 (BABA) is not a volume-confirmed turn above a rising SMA. No re-rate trigger has appeared. Primary watch-for gauge (KWEB↔ASHR spread) is moving in the wrong direction for re-rate; the right direction for the structural-discount lens. Watch for any VIE/governance catalyst (HK-listing path, regulatory de-risk headline) or a macro turn (property stabilization, RMB strength) as the eventual re-rate signal.
• Per-ticker (from data table 06-26): KWEB ↓ (RSI 28.5, -4.9% 7D, -44.8% from high — VIE wrapper in freefall), FXI ↓ (RSI 23.4, -4.8% 7D — SOE/macro leg equally stressed), ASHR → (RSI 51.1, -1.2% 7D — onshore holding; spread vs KWEB at widest; VIE discount isolated), BABA ↓ (RSI 17.0, -8.7% 7D — capitulation territory; not a buy), BIDU ↓ (RSI 28.6, -5.9% 7D), JD ↓ (RSI 27.0, -6.7% 7D), PDD ↓ (RSI 34.3, -6.2% 7D), NTES → (RSI 56.5, -5.8% 7D — relative strength outlier in the complex).

🔄 2026-07-05 operating book: Demoted to bench (status → monitoring) in the operating-book cut (operating-book, ratified 2026-07-04) — model + promotion trigger kept (see watch_for), capture routing unchanged. Trigger firing = push to Jan for promotion review; slot 4 of the book is open.