Full Scan Market Brief — June 26, 2026

Issue #24 · The Rotation Gets a Name · ~14 min read

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1. Three Things

1. The rotation got named. A new tracked thesis — ai-capex-digestion — now governs the real book: the index (SPY/QQQ ~3-5% off highs) hides that half the mega-caps are 30-57% below their highs while money pours into breadth (IWM RSI 63.8), value (VTV +3.08% 30D vs VUG -6.18%), and healthcare (XLV the week's leader at RSI 72.3).
2. Breadth keeps narrowing: the count of monster-momentum names fell to 191 (from 205 yesterday, off a 299 peak in May), and AVGO dropped out of monster territory entirely (RSI 40.3, back to its SMA200) while ARM bled -17% on the week — two mega-cap AI names stepping back from leadership.
3. The dollar won. UUP at RSI 72.9 near a 52-week high crushed the entire commodity complex — crude (USO RSI 29.4), silver (SLV -21% 30D), gold (GLD RSI 35.8) all broke down — and the AI-supply leaders (MU +152% / SNDK +216% above their lifetime VWAP) just rested, parabolic and extended, without giving anyone a clean entry.

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2. The Big Picture

For the fourth week running the story is rotation, not panic — but this week it broadened, got a name, and started to thin at the top.

Act 1 — The index lies. SPY and QQQ are only a few percent off highs, which makes the tape look calm. It isn't. Underneath, DIA (RSI 61), IWM (RSI 63.8) and RSP (equal-weight) are green while cap-weighted growth bleeds; VTV is beating VUG by ~9 points on the month; XLV led the entire market up +4.4% on the week to RSI 72.3. This is a textbook leadership handoff from concentrated mega-cap growth to breadth, value and defensives — and it's now explicit enough that it has its own governing thesis (ai-capex-digestion), whose one job is to decide whether this is a healthy mid-cycle rotation or the front edge of a capex-ROI reckoning. The read so far: rotation, not reckoning.

Act 2 — The wreckage. The death-crossed cohort kept dying. ORCL had a catastrophic week (-19% in five days, RSI 29.8, now -57% from its high — the app-layer de-rate won the OCI-straddle decisively). MSFT (RSI 40.8, death cross, -33% from high), PLTR (collapse regime), and TSLA (death cross confirmed, full inverted stack) round out the broken side, joined by enterprise SaaS (CRM/NOW/ADBE/ZS all flipping toward collapse), China knives (FXI RSI 23.4, the market's sole true capitulation), crypto coins (MSTR -26% on the week), and consumer brands (NKE -7%). The lesson the tape keeps teaching: low RSI plus a death cross is broken, not cheap. Oversold can stay oversold.

Act 3 — What's actually working, and what's just resting. Two very different things are bid. First, the rotation's destination — defensives, value, biotech (XBI RSI 76.2), airlines (AAL parabolic at RSI 78.2), housing (XHB/ITB RSI 67-69 on the rate-relief trade), even Hormel (HRL RSI 79.7). Most of that is now extended, not entry. Second, the AI-supply froth — memory (MU/SNDK), semis (AMAT +104% above VWAP), optical (ALAB/GLW) — which sat still this week but remains 50-216% above its lifetime VWAP. The cleanest buyable thing on the board isn't in either bucket: it's the quality mega-cap dips that held their golden cross — NVDA, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, NET — sitting at or near equilibrium while everything around them sorted into "extended" or "broken."

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3. Focus List

The focus list splits the whole market's lesson in miniature. NVDA / GOOGL / AAPL / AMZN / NET are the buyable side — golden cross intact, quality dips into rotation; buy the SMA20 reclaim, not the knife mid-flush. NVDA is the textbook setup (at SMA200, at VWAP equilibrium) but it's advisory-only on the live book, with GOOGL as its tradeable twin — best relative strength, held the entire week. MU / SNDK / ARM are the extended-froth side — hold winners, add only on a confirmed flag. MSFT / TSLA are broken — death-crossed, no entry. NTR is the trap in plain sight: RSI 28.8 looks like a gift, but a golden-cross name in persistent distribution with the stop 3% away is oversold-as-description, not oversold-as-signal.

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4. Sector Scorecard

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5. Market Vibe

The market is doing the most coherent thing it's done in a month: it's rotating, on purpose, in broad daylight. This isn't a fear tape — VIXY and VXX are crushed (-27% vs their VWAP), bonds are bid, and the bargain-bin filter (RSI < 30 and below SMA20) turned up exactly two names in the entire large-cap universe (CME and ORCL). A market that's truly de-risking floods that filter; this one barely populated it. What's happening instead is a deliberate handoff: capital leaving the most-crowded cohort (mega-cap growth + enterprise software) and showing up in breadth, value, defensives, and the rate-relief trade (housing's quiet RSI-69 breakout is the cleanest example nobody's discussing).

The weird part — the part that doesn't fit a clean "risk-off" narrative — is that the flight-to-quality is the dollar and bonds, not gold. UUP broke out to a 52-week high and gold fell (-8.5% on the month, RSI 35.8). The gold-as-haven reflex is simply gone; the anomaly we've tracked for two months has become the baseline. And the froth that should be the first thing to crack in a real reckoning — memory, semis, optical — didn't crack. It rested. MU and SNDK are sitting 150-216% above their lifetime average buyer and just... held. That's the single biggest tension in the tape: if this were a capex reckoning, the AI-supply leaders would be the next domino. They're not falling yet. So the working call stays: rotation, with the supply-side froth as the canary — watch MU's 50-day, not the index.

The contradiction to keep honest about: breadth is narrowing even as it leads. The ranks of monster-momentum names have shed 108 off their May peak, AVGO just dropped out, and 45 of the surviving 191 monsters are already overbought. Leadership that's both leading and thinning is late-stage behavior. Not a top call — a thinning. But it's why "hold the winners, don't chase" beats "back up the truck" this week.

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6. Scan Dashboard

6a. Every Manifest Scan at a Glance (30 of 30)

6b. Expanded Dispatches

macro-commodities — the dollar broke everything. UUP hit RSI 72.9, within 0.35% of a 52-week high, and dragged the entire commodity complex down with it: crude (USO RSI 29.4, -19.5% 30D), silver (SLV -21% 30D), gold (GLD RSI 35.8). The one outlier is housing — XHB/ITB printing RSI 67-69 on +12% 30D runs, the rate-relief trade quietly breaking out while nobody watches. And factor rotation showed up here in its purest form: VTV (value) RSI 61.7 vs VUG (growth) RSI 39.1.

monster-scan — the board is thinning at the top. 191 monsters, down from 205 yesterday and a 299 peak in May, with AVGO falling out into secular territory (+1.4% over SMA200) for the first time in months. Memory still owns the top — SNDK +216% over VWAP, MU +152% — but 45 of 191 names now carry RSI ≥ 70. Biotech is the surprise new cluster (LABU RSI 77, ABSI RSI 75, TWST RSI 79.5). Watch DD (RSI 88, +188% 30D) — that's a DuPont corporate-action artifact, not a momentum signal; do not trade it.

bargain-bin — the market isn't actually oversold. The filter (RSI < 30 and below SMA20) scanned the entire large-cap universe and returned exactly two names: CME (RSI 22.7) and ORCL (RSI 29.8) — both strong-down, death-crossed falling knives, neither a buy. The sparseness is the signal. Most beaten-down names are sitting RSI 31-37, not below 30. This is rotation, not capitulation.

defense-contractors — violent internal divergence. The ETF layer is holding bids (ITA -5.5% from high, DFEN +22% 3M) on structural NATO/geopolitical demand, but the individual primes are a mess: RTX is the clear winner (RSI 57.5, uptrend) while NOC is near capitulation (RSI 30.9, -35% from high, collapse regime) and LMT keeps underperforming. The clean expression is the ETF, not the stock-picking.

ev-clean-energy — three separate distress clusters. Chinese EVs in capitulation (BYDDY RSI 19.2, XPEV 22.8, LI 26.1), solar cracking (ENPH -32% 30D, SEDG -29%), lithium rolling over (ALB RSI 28). All death-crossed — oversold doesn't mean dip. BE is the lone survivor but +88% over VWAP after a +89% 3M run = trim/hold, not add.

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7. The Front Page — Deep Research Teasers

7a. Perspective Dispatches

(All numerics cross-checked against the 2026-06-26 validated daily summaries; perspectives stamped last_refreshed: 2026-06-26.)

AI Capex Digestion — the Crowded-Trade Unwind (NEW, born 2026-06-26). The headline thesis of the week, and the one now governing the real book: is the mega-cap-growth + SaaS unwind a healthy rotation or a capex-ROI reckoning? The bellwether to watch is a GOOGL SMA20 reclaim (~$363); the leading tell is hyperscaler capex guidance on the next round of earnings (MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL/META) — a guide-down flips rotation → reckoning and hits the AI-supply leaders (MU/AVGO) next. Read so far: rotation, not reckoning.

AI Power Bottleneck — Watts Per Rack. The generation-side thesis is intact but its cleanest equity (BE) is now extended — RSI 43.2, +88% over VWAP after a +89% 3M run, a hold-not-add. The CRWV/CORZ/IREN cohort rests with the rest of AI infra. Watch for fresh hyperscaler↔nuclear/gas PPA deals as the live confirmation.

AI Power Delivery — the 30% Parasitic Loss. The challenger cohort re-rated hard and is now priced for it: MRAAY +142% over SMA200 (RSI 58.6), VICR RSI 55.2 / +101% over SMA200. The incumbent-bear leg (ETN as cohort laggard) still holds. Asymmetry has tightened onto the challengers — extended, not fresh.

AI Optical Supercycle — Wave-Curve Rotation. GLW (Corning) is the week's new large-cap entrant — +14% on the week, RSI 61, +73% over VWAP, bid as a direct AI-datacenter-connectivity beneficiary. But the whole book is 50-216% above VWAP (SNDK +216%, ALAB/IBIDF +109%) — intact thesis, no entry at these prices; FN is the only name near support.

Memory Supercycle — DRAM/NAND/HBM Tightness. Still mid-cycle on thesis, late on the trade. MU $1,132 (RSI 59, +152% over VWAP), SNDK $2,091 (+216%); cohort RSIs cooled from 62-65 to 48-59 this week as STX/WDC took the sharpest hits. Golden crosses intact across the board — hold winners, don't initiate.

Nearline HDD Storage — Density-Led Oligopoly. STX ($899.90, RSI 48.5, +104% over VWAP) and WDC ($586.45, RSI 50.2, +138% over VWAP) blew off and are now resting, fully priced. The purest expression (captive-media drive makers) remains STX/WDC; the Q4 FY26 prints (late July/Aug) are the next read on whether either maker breaks supply discipline.

CPU Shortage Supply Chain — ABF Substrate Bottleneck. The "missing 4th leg" of the AI cohort already re-rated: IBIDF +198% over SMA200 (RSI 65.9), AMD +158% 3M (RSI 56.2). Substrate/OSAT (ASX/AMKR) is the leg that wins in all three hypotheses; merchant CPU is the contested one. AMD + Intel Q2 prints in late July are the first real read on allocation/price-hike language.

Nuclear Fuel Cycle — Enrichment Chokepoint. The whole lane stayed washed out — LEU got hammered (-64% from ATH per the defense scan), the cohort sits sub-45 RSI, DUK the most stable. Still a lane "on sale" but pre-confirmation — needs a volume-confirmed turn in LEU/CCJ, not just an oversold reading. The demand engine (ai-power-bottleneck) cracking is the single biggest invalidator.

US Energy Dominance — Blockade as Leverage. The week's news: crude broke the bottom of its range — USO $105.48, RSI 29.4, sitting on its VWAP floor (-19.5% 30D). The integrated majors are now oversold-quality: XOM/CVX/COP RSI 32-34, golden crosses intact, all near VWAP fair value — a classic accumulate-in-weakness setup. The late-cycle services warning (OIH) is cooling as crude capitulates.

Biotech Capital Cycle — IPO-Window-Levered Picks-and-Shovels. The rotation is real and bifurcated: mid-cap tools/CROs ripping (TWST RSI 79.5, XBI RSI 76.2 near ATH) while the laggard mega-cap anchors (TMO/DHR/MEDP) still lag. Ratification gate unchanged — needs TMO/DHR/MEDP to put in positive 3M and RSI > 60 together before the mega-cap money has confirmably joined. Optionality is in the laggards, not the extended mid-caps.

China Structural Discount — Multiple-Capped, Not Earnings-Capped. FXI (RSI 23.4) and KWEB (RSI 28.5, death cross) are the market's sole true capitulation — but the live tell hardened: ASHR (onshore, no VIE) is ~-3% off its high while KWEB (offshore VIE) is ~-26%, isolating the VIE/governance discount as exactly what's being priced. A clean downtrend, not a setup — oversold RSI alone (BABA ~21) is not a buy.

Livestock Disease — Screwworm → Cattle Shock. A monitoring lane with a defined trigger, not a buy-the-basket call: the protein/animal-health complex is still in a correlated GLP-1-driven drawdown with no hurt-down/alternatives-up dispersion to trade. Clean expression stays at ELAN. Alert trigger: any screwworm detection beyond the USDA 20km infested zone.

SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event. Post-debut (SPCX listed June 12), the space halo aired out hard — RKLB -16.76% on the week, RDW -15.36%, LUNR -50.94% 30D, and the SpaceX ETF basket whipsawed wildly (SPCH -41% 30D vs SSPC/SPCQ +42% 30D). The perspective is now in the lockup/comp-watch window: does SPCX re-rate the existing AI-infra cohort (NBIS/CRWV) up or down, and is the T+30 lockup a real sell event.

*Gulf Infrastructure Strike (monitoring).* Premise intact (Ras Laffan still shut, a multi-year helium reduction) but every trade leg remains inverted — APD weak, the LNG complex broken, Asian fabs ripping against the thesis. Kept as a monitored binary into the late-Aug/early-Sep SK-fab helium-depletion window.

*Risk-On Tech Rotation [id: war-ends-playbook] (monitoring).* The durable risk-on / AI-supercycle signal lives in the AI lane now — but its named longs have rolled: AMZN/GOOGL/NVDA in pullback, MSFT death-crossed, a far cry from the +29% / RSI 71 readings at the perspective's birth. Held as a regime lens, not a trade book.

*The Gold Anomaly [id: gold-crash] (monitoring).* Confirmed and played-out: GLD RSI 35.8 broke below VWAP, the dollar is firm (UUP RSI ~73), and gold's no-bid is now plain inverse correlation reasserting. The anomaly has become the baseline — do-not-expect-gold-to-hedge-the-book. Reopen only on GLD > $445 RSI > 55.

7b. Monster Watch

The dominant theme is leadership narrowing: 191 monsters down from a 299 May peak, AVGO gone, 45 of the survivors already overbought. Memory/semis still own the top board but every name there is 100%+ over VWAP. The week's new cluster is biotech (LABU/ABSI/TWST/APGE all overbought) — a rotation magnet that's now extended, not an entry.

7c. Deep Dive Spotlight

Eleven deep dives were refreshed this scan. The three that matter most:

• NVDA — Buy-the-dip (advisory/paper only). Editorial: "The cleanest AI-infra entry setup in the cohort this week" — RSI 37.9, golden cross intact, sitting on SMA200 ($190.43), VWAP at equilibrium ($186.44). The member of the cohort that held structural integrity while MSFT/ORCL/PLTR broke. Live NVDA-block keeps this paper-only; GOOGL is the real-book twin.
• AVGO — Hold / watch SMA200. Editorial: "The week's leader-to-dropout tell." Was a monster-scan leader in mid-May ($447); now testing SMA200 ($360) at RSI 40.3, the last line before the $328-340 entry zone. Golden cross intact, but trend weak-down — a break opens the lower zone.
• ORCL — No bottom call. Editorial: The "ambiguous OCI-straddle" frame from June 22 resolved — the app-layer de-rate won decisively. -19% in one week, RSI 29.8 oversold but the MA stack is so far overhead a bounce is noise, not trend. Broken cohort confirmed.

Plus 8 more deep dives this scan: AAPL (quality dip, cleanest read of 3 refreshes), AMZN (testing SMA200, inflection), ARM (SMA20-pullback entry arrived & overshot), MSFT (broken, no entry), NET (net outperformer, trail stop SMA50), NTR (first oversold read, wait for confirmation), PLTR (HOLD paper mirror only), TSLA (death cross confirmed, no entry).

7d. Sector Rotation Radar

→ Files: 2026-06-26-{theme}.md

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8. Key Signals

Gold / Commodities. The whole complex is a dollar story now. UUP at RSI 72.9 near a 52-week high crushed crude (USO RSI 29.4), silver (SLV RSI 31.7, -21% 30D), and gold (GLD RSI 35.8) into confirmed downtrends, with metals breaking below their SMA200s. Agriculture is quietly collapsing too (AGRO RSI 29.8, -25% 30D). The only commodity-adjacent winner is housing (XHB/ITB RSI 67-69) — and that's a rate-relief trade, not a commodity trade. The flight-to-quality bid went to the dollar and bonds (TLT RSI 65.8), not gold.

Insider Buying. Still no green light. For the second straight week, zero golden setups (RSI < 30 plus insider buying) — no capitulation-bottom confirmation anywhere. What there is is distribution: AMZN insiders sold ~$9.2B into the SMA200 test, GOOGL -$289M, NFLX -$1.4B. The single most important caveat on the otherwise-clean AMZN dip is that the people who know it best are selling it.

Crypto. Risk appetite said "off" at the margin. MSTR -26% on the week, COIN -16% — the bellwethers got hit hard. The one tell worth noting is the miner-vs-coin divergence: RIOT held (-4.5%) while the coins and proxies cratered, the same AI-infra-not-crypto behavior that folded crypto-geopolitics into the power thesis months ago. DFTX (RSI 88.5, +91% 30D) is the lone parabolic crypto-adjacent name and looks like froth, not signal.

Regime Transitions (snapshot as of the 2026-06-26 close; code-diffed, not recomputed). The climate is stock-picking weather — dispersion "elevated" (single-name moves running 2.0x the benchmark). The bucket counts tell the rotation: 326 names in pullback (the dominant state), 234 uptrend, 127 downtrend, 96 in collapse, only 15 parabolic. Among the day's flips: AAPL → uptrend (thesis intact) on the focus side; the broken-cohort migration continued with ADBE, ACN and ADA-USD all dropping → collapse, AA pullback → downtrend, while AAL flipped → parabolic and ABBV broke out → uptrend. The shape: quality dips holding their regime, the SaaS/crypto cohort sliding into collapse, the cyclical winners (airlines) going parabolic at the top.

Housing — the quiet breakout. Worth its own callout: XHB and ITB are printing RSI 67-69 on +12% 30D runs while nobody talks about them. In a week where everything commodity-and-growth broke, the rate-relief trade quietly made new ground. If the rotation has a next leg, this is a candidate.

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9. The Wild & Whacky

• DuPont (DD) printed RSI 88, +188% in 30 days. Almost certainly a spinoff/corporate-action data artifact, not a real move — flagged in two scans. Do not trade it as a monster; verify against a clean source first.
• Hormel (HRL) is one of the most overbought names in the entire market — RSI 79.7, +26.5% 30D. A processed-meat staple ripping like a momentum stock is what a defensive-rotation blow-off top looks like.
• HIMS reclaimed its SMA200 today ($33.94 vs $32.99) — the first clean reclaim in the recovering cultural-thesis cohort, flipping its status from "watch below SMA200" to "confirmed recovery watch."
• Hilton (HLT) traded 7.3x its normal volume with no obvious price break — a classic unexplained-volume flag worth a news check.
• The bargain-bin filter returned exactly 2 names from the entire large-cap universe. In a "selling" tape that should be dozens. The market is rotating, not capitulating — the sparse filter is the proof.
• ARM fell -17% in a single week — its largest one-week drawdown since the April recovery began — yet is still +132% over three months. Violent mean-reversion inside an extraordinary trend.
• SpaceX ETFs split in half: SPCH -41% over 30 days while SSPC/SPCQ are +42%. Same underlying, opposite tape — a post-IPO structuring mess worth understanding before touching any of them.
• AMZN is sitting on its SMA200 to the penny — price $232.69, SMA200 $232.77. Rarely does a make-or-break level line up this cleanly; this is the single chart to watch Monday.

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10. Paper Trade Report Card

Headline: the desk took its biggest realized-gain-and-stop day of the cycle — disciplined harvesting, not drawdown. Every book did the same thing: booked the winners that hit targets (LLY/ABBV/LABU/AMAT), mechanically cut the stops (BE/NUGT/CME/URA), and recycled cash into golden-cross quality dips (GOOGL/NET/DDOG/TJX/COST).

Danger zones: AMZN/pelosi-trades -1.25% below its $240 stop; LULU/burry-13f -33% (value-trap, urgency 10); RBLX/ark -29%. The shared open drags across books are the gold complex (GDX/NUGT) and NVDA -8.8% — but NVDA reads hold, not stop (thesis intact, at SMA200). Best thesis working: the rotation discipline itself — three of four books cleared their broken/extended names and re-armed on the quality-dip shopping list before the weekend. Worst position: BE, stopped out -23.4% in claude-momentum — the AI-power name that ran +89% then gave it back, a clean illustration of "extended is not invincible."

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11. What I'd Tell a Friend

The market is doing you a favor this week: it's sorting itself into three clean piles, and you only have to buy from one of them. Buy the quality dips that kept their golden cross, hold the froth, and don't touch the broken stuff no matter how oversold it looks.

Highest-conviction entries right now, with levels:

1. GOOGL — $337, RSI 34. The single best real-book-eligible setup. Best relative strength of the mega-caps, held the entire down-week, golden cross intact, +7.6% over SMA200. Buy the SMA20-reclaim pop (~$363 is the bellwether the new ai-capex-digestion thesis watches). This is the tradeable twin of the NVDA setup you can't take live.
2. NVDA — $192.53, RSI 37.9 (advisory/paper only). The textbook dip — sitting on SMA200 ($190.43), at VWAP equilibrium, golden cross intact. SMA20 reclaim at ~$207 = the pop-and-first-trim level.
3. AAPL — $283.78, RSI 41.5. Quality-dip flush; regime still "uptrend," golden cross intact. Add here; deeper add zone $250-260 if the flush extends.
4. AMZN — $232.69, RSI 40. The binary. Holds SMA200 ($232.77) → buyable inflection. Breaks → wait for $215-225. Respect the -$9.2B insider selling as the one caveat.
5. XOM — $136.54, RSI 33.5 (or CVX/COP, all RSI 32-34). Oversold-quality energy: golden cross intact, near VWAP fair value, accumulate-in-weakness as crude washes out on its VWAP floor.

What to do today: nothing urgent — this is a shopping-list-and-levels weekend, not a chase. The single thing to watch this week: AMZN's SMA200 and the first hyperscaler capex guidance. AMZN holding $232 keeps the whole golden-cross-dip cohort buyable; a capex guide-down on the next round of mega-cap earnings is the one thing that flips this from "rotation" to "reckoning" — and the first place it would show up is the memory/semis froth (watch MU's 50-day). Until then: rotation, not reckoning. Buy quality, hold winners, skip the knives.

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12. Active Perspectives

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13. Scan Summary

Scans completed (30): market-pulse, ai-scan, ai-infrastructure, biotech-scan, nvda-ecosystem, defensive-scan, healthcare-scan, consumer-scan, retail-scan, cloud-etfs, cybersec, ev-clean-energy, etf-universe, insider-scan, bargain-bin, tech-insider-buys, crypto-scan, macro-commodities, defense-contractors, geopolitical-risk, optical-supply-chain, drone-defense, supply-chain-traces, wfe-test-metrology, food-security, cultural-thesis, airlines, chemicals, travel-leisure, monster-scan.

Counts: 16 active perspectives refreshed (incl. the new ai-capex-digestion) · 11 deep dives refreshed · 11 candidate themes · 4 paper books + bench-signals tracker updated · monster breadth 191 (↓ from 205; peak 299).

Date: 2026-06-26 (EOW close). Price truth: 2026-06-26 validated daily summaries (summaries) plus today's 30 scans — nothing recomputed in prose.

Cross-references: Status report · Actions digest · Week in review · Rotation map · Previous brief (#23, 06-25)

Sources

Price, RSI and trend figures read from the desk's validated daily scan summaries (research/market-engine/data/summaries/). No number in this note was computed in prose.