Graduated — capital-cycle / balance-sheet-survivor layer (10-K program)

Thesis

Graduated — capital-cycle / balance-sheet-survivor layer (10-K program)

  • Type: thesis-shift (subtype: hardens)
  • event_id: 2026-07-01-graduated-capital-cycle-balance-sheet-survivor-layer-10-k-program
  • Shift: The quantum-compute 10-K deep-dive program (5/7 pure-plays, all EDGAR-XBRL-verified) crystallized the discriminator the basket framing was missing: quantum at this stage is a capital-cycle / balance-sheet-survivor trade, not a commercial-advantage trade. Added a 'capital-cycle layer' section ranking the pure-plays by funding survivability.
  • Effect on thesis: Basket-first discipline unchanged; this refines WHICH single-name is safe to rotate into once the base-and-breakout trigger fires — funded survivors first, dilution lotteries only after a financing overhang clears.
  • Per-ticker: QBTS ↑ (survivor — real commercial book, ~$33M bookings). IONQ ↑ (survivor — fortress balance sheet). INFQ ↑ (survivor-ish — contract-backed). RGTI ↓ (dilution lottery — thin cash). QUBT ↓ (balance-sheet-over-business — cash without revenue). Arrows = capital-cycle survivability rank, not price direction; a green EPS quarter here is a non-cash warrant mark, not profit.
8 events
DateTypeEvent
Jun 28 InvestigationIs quantum computing actually working yet? Jun 25 InvestigationQuantum-compute cohort first-pass triage — real-vs-vaporware across the 7 pure-plays (IONQ RGTI QBTS QUBT INFQ ARQQ LAES) Jun 29 VideoQuantum as the next post-AI trend — US executive orders + sovereign equity stakes Aug 17 ScanWashout Turn Scan Jul 7 ScanAI Scan Aug 12 ScanMonster Scan Aug 13 ScanWashout Turn Scan Aug 13 ScanMonster Scan

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