Desk Status — July 11, 2026

Data as-of 2026-07-10 close, internal tape refresh (pre-computed summaries + today's 30-scan actions digest). Code did the math; nothing recomputed in prose.

1. Market Weather

Risk-on, no haven bid. SPY (VOO proxy) $754.95, RSI 59.7, strong-up, +9.2% vs SMA200 — grinding at highs, −0.72% off its 52wk high. VIXY $20.34, RSI 34.3, collapse regime, −29.3% vs SMA200 — vol is dead, complacency flag standing. GLD $377.01, RSI 42.9, strong-down, death-crossed, −2.41% 30D — no safe-haven bid despite the week's macro noise. TLT $84.47, RSI 39.9, newly death-crossed, strong-down — the single biggest structural change on the board; IEF confirms (RSI 45.0, also death-crossed). EEM $66.90, RSI 49.5, strong-up trend but flat 30D (−0.37%) — international drifting sideways as the dollar re-firms.

Call: equities healthy and un-frothy, bonds are the new risk (rates repricing, not a credit scare — HYG RSI 55.7 untouched), gold and vol both offer nothing right now.

2. Sector Heat Map

No sector is truly oversold — the coolest reads (energy, materials) are basing, not breaking. Nothing is extreme overbought either; the froth that lived in individual names (biotech, cyber) unwound without a sector-level ETF ever printing capitulation-tier RSI.

3. Top 5 Opportunities

1. NVDA $210.96 — the two-cycle stalemate resolved bullish: RSI 42.3 → 57.2, +7.3% week, SMA200 cushion widened to +10.2%. Add zone = SMA20 retest ($201.95). Advisory-only for the real book (NVDA-block).
2. AVGO $399.97 — cleared its long-flagged SMA200 test, best 7D print in its tier (+5.4%). Add zone = SMA20 retest ($382.58).
3. NTR $65.43 — focus name, repair continuing past RSI 50 (28.8 → 48.8 → 51.7). SMA50 reclaim ($67.40) confirms; stop $59.
4. COST $916.25 — the one constructive oversold setup on the board (RSI 36.3, golden cross intact); inherited WMT's exact playbook from last cycle. Wait for a base before treating RSI as a bounce signal.
5. LASR $72.05 — the one drone-complex name that improved on both price and trend this week (RSI 55.1, strong-up, thesis intact); today's buy target across three paper books.

4. Top Risks

• MPWR — running ~7% above its stop; the tightest real-book risk on the board right now.
• BTC $64,300.60 — exit advisory active (carried), −29.4% P&L, still collapse regime/death cross, −49.0% off high; the +2.3% 7D bounce doesn't change the structure.
• CRM $163.32 — exit advisory active (carried), −14.5% P&L, strong-down death cross, −40.4% off high; 30D improved but trend unrepaired.
• TLT/IEF death cross — bonds newly strong-down after being the strongest complex two weeks ago; rates repricing, respect it rather than treat it as a dip to buy.
• PLTR $126.79 — bounce failed (prior +9.4% 7D fully reversed), death cross, −38.9% off high, plus −$2.5B insider selling flagged for verification.
• BE $244.61 — trend flipped weak-down (−18.9% 7D) with insider selling corroborating; last cycle's "add on flag" call is dead.

5. Actions Log

Zones (from today's digest):

• Entry zones — no strict buys pass the oversold screen: PLUG, ALB, AMVMF, EOSE all fail trend-hold rules (falling knives). Approaching-oversold watch list: COST, IONS, ORCL, RIOT, NFLX, POET, DOW, LYB, AEHR.
• Quality accumulates (the actual buy-side): NVDA, AVGO, NTR, AMGN, GILD, TMO, XLU/XLP, BESIY, LASR, DDOG, AMZN.
• Price alerts triggered: NVDA SMA20 reclaim, NET $260 breakout, USO VWAP-floor nibble. Killed: BE add-on-flag (structure broke first).
• Exit alerts (holdings): BTC and CRM active advisories (carried); PLTR new watch; MDT/WMT holding and repairing; NET winner-management (+51.3%, consider trailing protection).
• Trim/avoid (market-wide): BE, TER, SOXL, CRDO, INTU/HUBS, SLV, TLT/IEF, leveraged ETF cluster.

Today's trades:

• Sells: EQT (mccaul-trades) — stop-loss exit at −17.1%. DXCM (bench-signals) — target hit, +20.5%.
• Buys: claude-momentum — NTR / NET / LASR, $5K each. claude-trader — AMGN $3K, NTR $2.5K, LASR $2K. yolo — LASR $10K.

6. Portfolio Pulse

7. Key Numbers

• Most oversold (tracked universe): PLUG, RSI 28.0 — deepest print, but falling-knife structure, not buyable.
• Most overbought sector ETF: XLF, RSI 66.2 (+6.24% 30D).
• Gold: GLD $377.01, RSI 42.9, −2.41% 30D, death-crossed — no haven bid.
• Regime counts: parabolic tier collapsed 17 → 2 names; monster-board overbought count fell 39 → 14; 79 names now sit in the healthy RSI 45–60 zone; 48 regime transitions diffed today (busiest in weeks).
• Golden-cross + RSI<30 setups (bottom confirmation): zero, 4th straight cycle.

8. What Changed (vs 2026-07-07)

• NVDA/AVGO resolved bullish — the two-scan-cycle stalemate flag fired (NVDA RSI 42.3 → 57.2, +7.3% week; AVGO cleared its SMA200 test).
• Froth unwound through time, not price: parabolic regime count 17 → 2, monster overbought 39 → 14, indices still near highs (SPY −0.72% off high).
• Bonds turned: TLT/IEF newly death-crossed after being the strongest complex two weeks ago — the biggest structural change on the board.
• WMT resolved its oversold setup (RSI 34.0 → 44.2) and COST immediately inherited the same setup fresh.
• BE broke down (−18.9% week, insider selling corroborating) — last cycle's "add on flag" call is dead.
• NET's $260 breakout triggered (+51.3% real-book P&L) — shifts from an entry watch to a winner-management problem.
• Two paper-book exits fired today (EQT stop, DXCM target) alongside a buy wave concentrated in LASR across three strategies plus NTR/AMGN/NET.

Sourced from today's actions digest (2026-07-11-actions-daily-digest.md), pre-computed market-pulse summary, and the verified paper-trading ledger. research:feeds / research:terminal-projections owned by the main thread.