Dean W. Ball on Kimi K3 — genuinely frontier, not distillation, token-hungry, 'not obviously cheap to run'

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Dean W. Ball on Kimi K3 — genuinely frontier, not distillation, token-hungry, 'not obviously cheap to run'

· @deanwball

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  1. It's a very good model! I don't think its performance can be explained away by distillation or anything like that. In agentic coding sessions, it seems pretty much on par with the best public models of Q1 2026. In my fairly limited use, it also seemed very token hungry. It's not obvious to me that this model is actually that cheap to run.

  2. I am personally surprised the Chinese state continues to allow the open sourcing of models this good... [reasons: ~75% strategic blindness / lack of AGI-pilledness; ~25% lack of inference compute due to US export controls + aggressive-exports strategy]. For the companies... the decision to open source is partially ideological and partially because they are behind, and they know that very few people would pay for sub-frontier models from China.

  3. Open-weight models are inherently decelerationist...

— @deanwball, 2026-07-17T15:05:05Z.

Desk relevance: point 1 independently corroborates the K3 report's central mechanism — the model is token-hungry and "not obviously cheap to run," i.e. commoditized weights ≠ commoditized inference. Point 2's export-controls byproduct (no inference capacity → open-weight strategy) is a new causal frame worth tracking.

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