First trigger fires: small-caps-lead (verified, with a caveat)
Event
First trigger fires: small-caps-lead (verified, with a caveat)
Summary
- Type: trigger (machine-watched, verified on the 2026-08-04 settled close) - Shift: small-caps-lead fired per its declared condition — IWM 30d +0.94% (> 0) AND 7d +2.84% (> +1.5%). The caveat that keeps this from reading as confirmed leadership: small caps are NOT leading the tape in relative terms — SPY did +4.11% and QQQ +7.16% over the same 7 days, so IWM's move is participation in a broad risk-on week,
Related
7 events DateTypeEvent
Aug 5 Market SignalVol Compression Trio Fear Disarms Aug 4 ConditionsMarket Conditions Aug 5 ConditionsMarket Conditions Aug 3 ConditionsMarket Conditions Aug 3 Market SignalBreadth Turn Confirming Aug 6 TweetThe Kobeissi Letter — record 4.0M S&P 500 call volume as put/call skew posts its biggest two-day drop since 2017 Aug 7 ConditionsMarket Conditions No direct external sources are attached to this read.