Airlines Scan — August 21, 2026 Close

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Airlines Scan — August 21, 2026 Close

Scan symbols 6
Watchlists 1
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 17 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-14-airlines.md

Every tracked airline extended its pullback for a second straight scan: all six names' RSI dropped further, and three — Delta ($DAL), United ($UAL), and the sector-tracking ETF ($JETS) — slid out of strong-up into weak-down trend, while Southwest ($LUV), American ($AAL), and Alaska ($ALK) fell a rung further, from weak-down into outright down. But the one-year picture splits the cohort cleanly: Delta, United, and JETS sit comfortably above their 200-day averages with double-digit gains over the past year — a deep pullback inside an intact uptrend, not a breakdown. Alaska is the one name where both windows agree it's broken: down 26.4% over the past year, 11.9% below its 200-day, and the sector's worst alpha by a wide margin.

Data as-of the 2026-08-21 close (Friday's settled tape, scanned Monday 2026-08-22) for all six tickers. All numbers from the pre-computed airlines summary. Comparison scan: the August 14, 2026 close — no 2026-08-21-dated airlines scan exists to compare against, so this covers an eight-day gap, not a single scan cycle.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Broad two-scan deterioration — RSI eased sector-wide and three names dropped a full trend tier
Key insight The 1-year/200-day view splits the group: Delta, United, and JETS are pulling back inside intact uptrends (12.7%, 5.3%, and 5.0% above their 200-days); Alaska is the one name broken on every window (-26.4% over the year, below its 200-day, worst alpha in the sector)

What's Going On

Every one of the six tracked airline names weakened further this scan, extending the pullback flagged on 2026-08-14. RSI dropped across the board — Delta from 52.3 to 39, United from 52.1 to 37.8, Southwest from 41.3 to 31.5, JETS from 50.2 to 38.6, American from 44.0 to 38, and Alaska from 44.2 to 32.5 — and the whole cohort has now dropped out of the neutral-to-strong band it occupied on 08-14 into the approaching-oversold band. Trend classification deteriorated too: Delta and United slid from strong-up to weak-down, and Southwest, American, and Alaska all fell a further rung, from weak-down into outright down.

The year-long data draws a sharper line than the week's price action does. Delta sits 12.7% above its 200-day average with a 42.48% gain over the past year and positive alpha (+20.66); United is 5.3% above its 200-day with a 16.44% one-year gain, though its alpha has slipped negative (-5.37); JETS, the sector ETF, is 5.0% above its 200-day with an 18.56% one-year gain. All three read as a deep pullback inside an intact multi-year uptrend, not a breakdown. Southwest has actually broken below its 200-day (-5.4%) even though its one-year change is still positive (+29.96%) — its long trend is now genuinely under test. American sits almost exactly on its 200-day (-0.6%) with a near-flat one-year change (+9.94%) and negative alpha (-11.87), the marginal name in the group. Alaska is the one where every window agrees: down 26.42% over the past year, 11.9% below its 200-day, and by far the sector's worst alpha reading (-48.24) — that's the genuinely broken name here, not a pullback.

This pullback isn't isolated to the mainline carriers — it shows up almost identically in travel-leisure's cruise names this scan, where Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line both flipped to strong-down with confirmed death crosses, reading as the same discretionary-travel-demand signal hitting a second corner of the sector. What doesn't confirm it is chemicals, the industrial-input side of this read-through: that cohort held flat to modestly improving over the same window, with no broad RSI or trend deterioration. It also doesn't show up in travel-leisure's lodging and booking names — Marriott, Hilton, Airbnb, Expedia, and Booking are all still basing or extending, not breaking down. Cause unknown from this data: nothing in the tape distinguishes whether this is a transportation-specific move (fuel, capacity) or genuine consumer-demand softness, since the booking/lodging side of the same discretionary spend isn't confirming it.

What Changed Since 2026-08-14

  • Delta: RSI 52.3→39.0 (eased sharply), trend strong-up→weak-down (downgraded), price $89.35→$82.41, 7D -2.18%→-7.76% (worsened), 30D +3.94%→-1.33% (swung negative), 52-week-high gap -4.57%→-13.87% (widened).
  • United: RSI 52.1→37.8 (eased sharply), trend strong-up→weak-down (downgraded), price $125.34→$113.17, 7D -3.26%→-9.72% (worsened), 30D +3.61%→-3.49% (swung negative), 52-week-high gap -8.95%→-18.45% (widened).
  • Southwest: RSI 41.3→31.5 (eased further), trend weak-down→down (downgraded again), price $44.26→$40.38, 7D -5.93%→-8.79% (worsened), 30D -10.13%→-15.27% (worsened), 52-week-high gap -18.58%→-26.73% (widened).
  • JETS (ETF): RSI 50.2→38.6 (eased sharply), trend strong-up→weak-down (downgraded), price $31.56→$29.57, 7D -3.01%→-6.34% (worsened), 30D +0.99%→-1.76% (swung negative), 52-week-high gap -6.46%→-13.18% (widened).
  • American: RSI 44.0→38.0 (eased), trend weak-down→down (downgraded again), price $14.83→$13.82, 7D -6.96%→-6.81% (roughly flat), 30D -5.12%→-6.56% (worsened), 52-week-high gap -19.85%→-26.45% (widened).
  • Alaska: RSI 44.2→32.5 (eased sharply), trend weak-down→down (downgraded again), price $45.96→$40.41, 7D -8.01%→-12.08% (worsened), 30D -4.01%→-8.90% (worsened), 52-week-high gap -27.90%→-38.66% (widened further, still the sector's widest gap).

How To Read The Board

RSI (Relative Strength Index) gauges how aggressively a stock has been bought or sold over roughly the past two weeks, on a 0-100 scale — under 30 signals an oversold, potentially undervalued stretch; over 70 signals overbought, extended risk; readings in between are neutral. Trend reflects a stock's structural direction based on its moving averages over the past several weeks — it is a short-window read, not a verdict on the multi-year story. vs SMA shows how far price sits above or below its 20-day average. The one-year change and the distance from the 200-day average are the longer-horizon check: a stock trading above its 200-day with a solidly positive one-year gain is in an intact multi-year uptrend even during an ugly week; a stock below its 200-day with a flat-to-negative one-year change and weak alpha is a trend genuinely being tested.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
DAL $82.41 39.0 $88.47 -6.8% -7.76% -1.33% 🟡 Deep pullback, not a breakdown — 12.7% above its 200-day, +42.48% over the past year
UALE $113.17 37.8 $123.48 -8.4% -9.72% -3.49% 🟡 Pullback in an intact trend — 5.3% above the 200-day, though this year's alpha has turned negative
LUV $40.38 31.5 $44.86 -10.0% -8.79% -15.27% 🔴 Trend broke — now below its 200-day; the pullback has become a real test
JETS $29.57 38.6 $31.48 -6.1% -6.34% -1.76% 🟡 Sector-ETF pullback, still 5.0% above the 200-day and +18.56% over the year
AAL $13.82 38.0 $15.09 -8.4% -6.81% -6.56% 🟠 Sitting right on the 200-day; a near-flat year with negative alpha, the marginal name
ALKE $40.41 32.5 $46.84 -13.7% -12.08% -8.90% 🔴 The one genuinely broken name — down over the past year and 11.9% below its 200-day

Tier Analysis

RSI < 25 (Oversold): None this scan.

RSI 25-40 (Approaching Oversold) — the whole sector, for the first time this cycle: All six names dropped into this band this scan, down from last scan's 40+ readings across the board. The long-horizon data splits the group into three tiers within it: Delta (39.0), United (37.8), and JETS (38.6) are pulling back inside uptrends that remain solidly above their 200-day averages (+12.7%, +5.3%, +5.0%) with double-digit one-year gains. American (38.0) sits almost exactly on its 200-day with a near-flat one-year change and negative alpha, the marginal case. Southwest (31.5) has broken below its 200-day even with a still-positive one-year change, putting its long trend genuinely under test. Alaska (32.5) is the one name broken on every window — down over the past year, well below its 200-day, and the sector's worst alpha.

RSI 40+ (Neutral-to-Strong): None this scan — the first time this cycle the entire cohort has sat below RSI 40.

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
DAL $82.41 39.0 -1.33% Pullback inside an intact uptrend — 12.7% above its 200-day, +42.48% over the year
UALE $113.17 37.8 -3.49% Pullback intact, but alpha has turned negative on the year
LUV $40.38 31.5 -15.27% Broke below its 200-day this scan; the pullback is now a real trend test
JETS $29.57 38.6 -1.76% Sector ETF, same pullback-not-breakdown read as Delta and United
AAL $13.82 38.0 -6.56% Sitting on its 200-day, near-flat year, negative alpha — the marginal name
ALKE $40.41 32.5 -8.90% The sector's one confirmed breakdown — down on the year, below its 200-day

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH DAL, UAL, JETS Deep pullback inside an intact uptrend — above the 200-day, positive year — not a breakdown, but momentum has turned sharply negative
⚠️ WATCH / CAUTION LUV, AAL Trend genuinely under test — Southwest broke its 200-day, American is flat-lining right on it
❌ AVOID ALKE Broken on every window — negative year, below its 200-day, worst alpha in the sector

What To Watch Next

Does this second straight down-scan stabilize, or does the sector keep sliding toward oversold? Does Southwest hold its newly broken 200-day, or does the loss compound? And does the divergence from chemicals and travel-leisure's lodging/booking names resolve — either the rest of the consumer-travel complex follows airlines down, or this turns out to be a transportation-specific move that stays contained to airlines and cruise lines.

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — airlines.
  • Comparison figures: 2026-08-14-airlines (2026-08-14 close; no 2026-08-21-dated airlines scan exists).
  • Cross-sector read: chemicals, travel-leisure (same 2026-08-21 close).
5 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.