Airlines Scan — August 28, 2026 Close

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Airlines Scan — August 28, 2026 Close

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raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 18 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-22-airlines.md

Airlines mostly stabilized this week after two straight scans of broad deterioration: RSI eased only modestly across five of six names, and none of the sector's short-term trend tags downgraded further. The one loud mover was Alaska Air ($ALK), up 4.75% over the past week — the sector's best 7-day print and its only positive one — but the long-horizon data says this is a bounce, not a turn: Alaska's alpha versus the market worsened to -52.89 from -48.24 two scans ago, still the sector's most broken name on every window. Southwest ($LUV) deepened its slide below its 200-day average, while Delta ($DAL), United ($UAL), and the sector ETF ($JETS) remain a deep pullback inside intact multi-year uptrends, still sitting above their 200-days with double-digit one-year gains.

Data as-of the 2026-08-28 close for all six tickers. All numbers from the pre-computed airlines summary. Comparison scan: the August 21, 2026 close — a normal one-week gap.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Sector stabilizing — weekly declines moderated for most names, no further trend downgrades this scan
Key insight Alaska's 4.75% weekly bounce is the sector's best 7-day print, but its alpha worsened to -52.89 — still the one name broken on every long-horizon window; Delta, United, and JETS remain a deep pullback inside intact uptrends while Southwest slipped further below its 200-day

What's Going On

After two consecutive scans of broad deterioration, the airline cohort mostly held its ground this week. RSI eased only modestly for four names — Delta from 39.0 to 35.4, United from 37.8 to 37.0, JETS from 38.6 to 37.5, American roughly flat at 37.9 (was 38.0) — while Southwest eased slightly further to 30.4 from 31.5, still the sector's lowest reading. None of the six short-term trend classifications changed from last scan: Delta, United, and JETS remain weak-down; Southwest and American remain down. The exception is Alaska, whose RSI jumped from 32.5 to 40.9 on a 4.75% weekly gain — the only positive 7-day print in the sector and its best weekly move by a wide margin, though its trend tag is still classified down.

The one-year data draws largely the same line it did last scan, with one deepening. Delta sits 8.6% above its 200-day with a 29.21% one-year gain and positive alpha (+9.34) — still a deep pullback inside an intact uptrend. United (2.4% above its 200-day, +5.25% over the year) and JETS (3.2% above, +10.91% over the year) hold a similar read, though both carry negative alpha, meaning each is lagging the broader market even while its own trend stays technically intact. Southwest has deepened its break: it's now 7.6% below its 200-day, wider than the -5.4% to -7.6% range flagged as "genuinely under test" last scan, even though its one-year change is still positive (+20.19%). American sits 2% below its 200-day with a barely-positive year (+2.94%) and the sector's second-worst alpha (-16.93), the marginal name. Alaska's bounce doesn't change its underlying picture: down 33.02% over the past year, 7.8% below its 200-day, and the sector's worst alpha at -52.89 — worse than the -48.24 recorded two scans ago. A one-week bounce inside a trend still deteriorating on every longer window reads as a bounce, not a reversal; news pulled for Alaska is dated July 8-9, well before this move, and no stock-event entry falls in the August 21-28 window, so the driver behind the bounce is unconfirmed from this data.

This week's cross-sector picture is not a clean airlines-only story. Chemicals, which had looked decoupled from airlines' weakness two scans ago, saw its two cleanest short-term performers — Dow and LyondellBasell — cool off sharply this week, with Dow slipping below its 200-day for the first time in this scan series. Travel-leisure's cruise names got worse, not better: Royal Caribbean joined Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line as broken on every long-horizon measure this scan, completing a trifecta that was only two-thirds there before. Meanwhile travel-leisure's lodging and booking names (Marriott, Hilton, Airbnb, Expedia) kept basing or extending, unaffected. Cause unknown from this data — nothing in the tape distinguishes a transportation-and-industrial-specific move from a broader macro signal, since the booking/lodging side of the same discretionary-spend picture isn't confirming it.

What Changed Since 2026-08-22

  • Delta: RSI 39.0→35.4 (eased further), trend weak-down unchanged, price $82.41→$80.07, 7D -7.76%→-2.86% (moderated), 30D -1.33%→-7.17% (worsened as last week's sharp drop rolled into the window), 52-week-high gap -13.87%→-16.31% (widened).
  • United: RSI 37.8→37.0 (roughly flat), trend weak-down unchanged, price $113.17→$110.60, 7D -9.72%→-2.29% (moderated sharply), 30D -3.49%→-7.39% (worsened), 52-week-high gap -18.45%→-20.30% (widened).
  • Southwest: RSI 31.5→30.4 (roughly flat, still the sector's lowest), trend down unchanged, price $40.38→$39.64, 7D -8.79%→-1.83% (moderated), 30D -15.27%→-10.68% (improved but still steep), 52-week-high gap -26.73%→-28.07% (widened slightly).
  • JETS (ETF): RSI 38.6→37.5 (roughly flat), trend weak-down unchanged, price $29.57→$29.18, 7D -6.34%→-1.32% (moderated), 30D -1.76%→-5.78% (worsened), 52-week-high gap -13.18%→-14.33% (widened).
  • American: RSI 38.0→37.9 (flat), trend down unchanged, price $13.82→$13.64, 7D -6.81%→-1.37% (moderated), 30D -6.56%→-8.09% (worsened), 52-week-high gap -26.45%→-27.41% (widened).
  • Alaska: RSI 32.5→40.9 (recovered, the sector's biggest mover), trend down unchanged, price $40.41→$42.32, 7D -12.08%→+4.75% (reversed sharply positive, best 7D in the sector), 30D -8.90%→-7.68% (roughly flat), 52-week-high gap -38.66%→-35.76% (narrowed on the bounce, still the sector's widest).

How To Read The Board

RSI (Relative Strength Index) gauges how aggressively a stock has been bought or sold over roughly the past two weeks, on a 0-100 scale — under 30 signals an oversold, potentially undervalued stretch; over 70 signals overbought, extended risk; readings in between are neutral. Trend reflects a stock's structural direction based on its moving averages over the past several weeks — it is a short-window read, not a verdict on the multi-year story. vs SMA shows how far price sits above or below its 20-day average. The one-year change and the distance from the 200-day average are the longer-horizon check: a stock trading above its 200-day with a solidly positive one-year gain is in an intact multi-year uptrend even during an ugly week or a one-week bounce; a stock below its 200-day with a flat-to-negative one-year change and weak alpha is a trend genuinely being tested or already broken.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
DAL $80.07 35.4 $87.07 -8.0% -2.86% -7.17% 🟡 Deep pullback, not a breakdown — 8.6% above its 200-day, +29.21% over the past year
UALE $110.60 37.0 $121.49 -9.0% -2.29% -7.39% 🟡 Pullback in an intact trend — 2.4% above the 200-day, though alpha stays negative
LUV $39.64 30.4 $43.61 -9.1% -1.83% -10.68% 🔴 Below its 200-day and deepening — the trend test flagged last scan has gotten worse
JETS $29.18 37.5 $31.05 -6.0% -1.32% -5.78% 🟡 Sector-ETF pullback, still 3.2% above the 200-day and +10.91% over the year
AAL $13.64 37.9 $14.74 -7.4% -1.37% -8.09% 🟠 2% below its 200-day, a near-flat year and the sector's second-worst alpha
ALKE $42.32 40.9 $45.63 -7.3% +4.75% -7.68% 🔴 Sharp weekly bounce, but the sector's one confirmed breakdown — down 33% over the year, worst alpha (-52.89)

Tier Analysis

RSI < 25 (Oversold): None this scan.

RSI 25-40 (Approaching Oversold): Delta (35.4), United (37.0), Southwest (30.4), JETS (37.5), and American (37.9) sit here — largely unchanged from last scan's readings, which is itself the story: the sector stopped sliding deeper into this band. The long-horizon data still splits the group: Delta, United, and JETS are pulling back inside uptrends that remain above their 200-day averages (+8.6%, +2.4%, +3.2%) with positive one-year gains; American sits below its 200-day with a near-flat year and negative alpha, the marginal case; Southwest has broken further below its 200-day even with a still-positive one-year change.

RSI 40+ (Neutral-to-Strong): Alaska (40.9) is the only name here this scan, newly crossing up from the approaching-oversold band on its weekly bounce — but it remains the sector's one name broken on every long-horizon measure (down on the year, below its 200-day, worst alpha).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
DAL $80.07 35.4 -7.17% Pullback inside an intact uptrend — 8.6% above its 200-day, +29.21% over the year
UALE $110.60 37.0 -7.39% Pullback intact, alpha still negative on the year
LUV $39.64 30.4 -10.68% Below its 200-day and the gap is widening — the trend test is deepening, not resolving
JETS $29.18 37.5 -5.78% Sector ETF, same pullback-not-breakdown read as Delta and United
AAL $13.64 37.9 -8.09% Below its 200-day, near-flat year, second-worst alpha in the sector
ALKE $42.32 40.9 -7.68% Sharp weekly bounce off the sector's widest 52-week gap, but still broken on every long-horizon window

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH DAL, UAL, JETS Deep pullback inside an intact uptrend — above the 200-day, positive year — not a breakdown
⚠️ WATCH / CAUTION AAL Sitting below its 200-day, near-flat year, negative alpha — the marginal name
🚨 AVOID LUV Trend test from last scan has deepened — further below its 200-day, not stabilizing
❌ AVOID ALKE Weekly bounce doesn't change the picture — broken on every long-horizon window, worst alpha in the sector

What To Watch Next

Does Alaska's bounce persist into an actual trend recovery, or fade back into the sector's worst long-horizon name once the week's move rolls off the tape? Does Southwest's widening gap below its 200-day stabilize, or keep compounding? And does the same-week strain showing up in chemicals' strongest names and travel-leisure's cruise lines confirm a broader transportation/discretionary-spend rollover, or stay isolated the way lodging and booking names suggest it might.

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — airlines.
  • Comparison figures: 2026-08-22-airlines (2026-08-21 close).
  • Cross-sector read: chemicals, travel-leisure (same 2026-08-28 close).
  • News/event check on Alaska's weekly bounce: latest (fetched 2026-07-09, predates this move) and research/stock-events/ (no entry in the August 21-28, 2026 window) — driver unconfirmed from this data.
5 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.