🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-09-16
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1352ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
30 sources · 25 fresh · 4 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 176d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 140d |
| apricitas | rss | 2026-05-06 | 133d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 30d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 19 TRIM verdicts (19 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 1 risk-on regime gauges • 1 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-09-16
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -4.46 30d spread pct pts |
| Broad-market ETF breadth | breadth_deteriorating | risk_off | 13.3 pct above SMA50 |
🟠 TRIM — 19 positions
19 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- XLU (bench-signals, -8.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -8.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (bench-signals, -6.1%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -5.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -1.7%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, -0.5%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, -0.5%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +1.3%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +1.3%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +1.9%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +2.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +2.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (claude-trader, +3.0%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +3.0%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +5.7%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +12.6%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +18.3%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +22.4%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (claude-trader, +22.9%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +9.9% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 9 | +10.8% | atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: LOW), gottheimer-trades... |
| NVDA | 7 | +6.5% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), conviction, khanna-trades... |
| AVGO | 8 | +1.5% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f, khanna-trades... |
| V | 4 | +23.6% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), hohn-13f, klarman-13f (tier: LOW) |
| SNDK | 4 | +110.9% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, gottheimer-trades, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| BE | 3 | +127.0% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| ARM | 7 | +18.4% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail... |
| DHR | 3 | +4.0% | conviction, loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| MSFT | 4 | +11.5% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), conviction, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| META | 6 | +14.5% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| UBER | 4 | +0.2% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| CVS | 5 | -1.4% | bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail, yolo (tier: LOW) |
| MU | 5 | +132.9% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, gottheimer-trades, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| CF | 4 | +5.3% | bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail, momentum-trader |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOVA | $9.87 | 73.1 | +151.2% | +39.0% | +137% |
| MRNA | $145.62 | 61.2 | +135.6% | +125.9% | +147% |
| CDNA | $53.55 | 71.1 | +128.1% | +15.5% | +104% |
| TXG | $72.68 | 70.3 | +126.2% | +25.3% | +136% |
| TEAM | $190.28 | 65.1 | +125.5% | +20.2% | +72% |
| ABCL | $11.67 | 60.9 | +114.5% | +4.2% | +116% |
| AMLX | $32.63 | 55.2 | +114.0% | +52.3% | +86% |
| ATRC | $57.14 | 81.1 | +110.7% | +27.6% | +62% |
| CVI | $53.05 | 82.6 | +91.7% | +45.7% | +70% |
| AVAH | $14.26 | 71.6 | +89.1% | +12.4% | +66% |
| DK | $79.16 | 66.8 | +87.0% | +17.8% | +71% |
| GTLB | $48.77 | 64.3 | +84.3% | +20.4% | +53% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 8
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP-USD | $1.30 | 47 | +2.2% | -30.9% | 1.4× | VA | crypto |
| BULL | $7.69 | 37 | +7.0% | -12.7% | 1.5× | VA | monster-discoveries |
| BTC | $33.61 | 54 | +2.1% | -4.3% | 1.3× | VA | holdings-etfs |
| IFNNY | $62.40 | 40 | +0.1% | -1.9% | 3.5× | VA | ai-power, electricity |
| NOK | $10.14 | 49 | +3.9% | -1.0% | 1.8× | POC | ai-infrastructure, holdings-stocks |
| ACGL | $96.97 | 45 | +0.8% | +2.6% | 1.8× | POC | trace-iran-war-second-and-third-order-effects |
| DLR | $181.07 | 41 | +0.7% | +1.5% | 1.3× | POC | ai-infrastructure, ai-scan |
| XYLD | $41.25 | 44 | +1.5% | +2.4% | 2.0× | POC | etf-ideas |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 3
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADPT | $27.67 | 70 | +54.2% | -3.7% | 2.9× | highs | monster-discoveries |
| FTRE | $19.97 | 63 | +34.5% | -6.6% | 2.4× | breakout | biotech-capital-cycle |
| CON | $36.37 | 69 | +41.4% | -0.9% | 1.6× | highs | monster-discoveries |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 2
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADPT | $27.67 | 70 | +56.6% | +9.5% | 2.9× | +13.3% | monster-discoveries |
| SDGR | $23.93 | 73 | +50.5% | +18.3% | 2.5× | +24.6% | biotech-capital-cycle, ibb |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.