🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-09-17
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1500ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
30 sources · 25 fresh · 4 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 178d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 142d |
| apricitas | rss | 2026-05-06 | 135d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 32d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 20 TRIM verdicts (19 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 3 risk-on regime gauges • 1 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-09-17
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDX/GLD miners-vs-metal | miners_leading_metal | risk_on | 0.24 ratio |
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -0.9 30d spread pct pts |
| VIXY fear proxy | vol_compressed | risk_on | -57.2 pct from 52w high |
| Broad-market ETF breadth | short_term_fragile | risk_off | 40 pct above SMA50 |
🟠 TRIM — 20 positions
19 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- XLU (bench-signals, -7.7%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -7.7%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (bench-signals, -4.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -3.9%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -0.6%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +1.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +1.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (claude-trader, +2.7%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +2.7%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +3.0%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +3.9%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +3.9%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +4.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +5.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +8.0%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +13.9%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +20.4%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +24.1%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (claude-trader, +24.6%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILD | yolo | +15.7% | partial-profit |
+15.7% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +12.2% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 9 | +12.2% | atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: LOW), gottheimer-trades... |
| NVDA | 7 | +9.2% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), conviction, khanna-trades... |
| AVGO | 8 | +3.8% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f, khanna-trades... |
| V | 4 | +23.2% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), hohn-13f, klarman-13f (tier: LOW) |
| SNDK | 4 | +124.0% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, gottheimer-trades, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| BE | 3 | +136.1% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| ARM | 7 | +28.5% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail... |
| DHR | 3 | +6.1% | conviction, loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| MSFT | 4 | +13.2% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), conviction, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| META | 6 | +16.0% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| UBER | 4 | +0.0% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| CVS | 5 | -3.0% | bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail, yolo (tier: LOW) |
| MU | 5 | +145.7% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, gottheimer-trades, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| CF | 4 | +6.8% | bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail, momentum-trader |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOVA | $10.02 | 74.1 | +156.3% | +42.5% | +139% |
| MRNA | $158.07 | 66.0 | +147.1% | +151.1% | +165% |
| TEAM | $192.53 | 66.3 | +132.8% | +18.1% | +74% |
| ABCL | $12.73 | 67.8 | +130.2% | +14.5% | +134% |
| TXG | $76.97 | 74.7 | +121.4% | +38.4% | +148% |
| AMLX | $33.94 | 59.3 | +116.6% | -3.3% | +93% |
| CDNA | $54.28 | 72.8 | +107.3% | +17.5% | +105% |
| ATRC | $59.12 | 83.7 | +105.3% | +29.2% | +67% |
| CVI | $54.14 | 83.8 | +97.6% | +47.7% | +73% |
| DK | $81.55 | 69.8 | +96.7% | +19.5% | +75% |
| SDGR | $30.24 | 83.7 | +91.9% | +71.1% | +98% |
| ASST | $28.28 | 75.1 | +90.4% | +120.9% | +89% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 3
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARA | $11.64 | 53 | +6.4% | -6.1% | 1.4× | POC | crypto |
| PGR | $216.29 | 48 | +2.9% | +1.3% | 2.0× | VA | financials |
| CRSP | $57.33 | 58 | +7.6% | +2.5% | 1.9× | VA | biotech, biotech-scan |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 3
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $545.09 | 63 | +54.4% | -6.8% | 1.6× | breakout | ai-scan, bargain-bin |
| STNG | $87.85 | 73 | +21.8% | -2.5% | 1.8× | highs | trace-iran-war-second-and-third-order-effects |
| EWTX | $46.94 | 63 | +38.8% | -3.2% | 2.0× | highs | monster-discoveries |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 3
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR (also in monsters — extension + churn) | $30.24 | 84 | +86.3% | +45.8% | 7.2× | +60.9% | biotech-capital-cycle, ibb |
| FRO | $54.03 | 85 | +68.9% | +18.1% | 2.2× | +13.5% | monster-discoveries, trace-iran-war-second-and-third-order-effects |
| TMO | $658.32 | 72 | +23.1% | +5.8% | 2.3× | +9.1% | bargain-bin, biotech |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.