Daily Actions

Article

Daily Actions

MARKET CONTEXT: SPY $761.69 (RSI 49.2, -0.34% on the week, +15.01% 1Y, +6.3% vs its 200-day — flat index, rotated internals) | QQQ $721.45 (RSI 55.9, +0.92% week, +21.19% 1Y, +8.9% vs 200-day — firmed through the hike) | VIXY $17.09 (RSI 39.4, -1.21% week — last week's first hedging uptick faded; no protection bid through a rate rise) | GLD $401.17 (RSI 50.6, +0.60% week, gap to its 200-day narrowed to -3.6% from -4.1%)

Price truth: every price, momentum and trend figure below is read from the 2026-09-18-dated research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json files, cross-checked symbol by symbol this session against market-pulse.json, etf-ideas.json, retail.json, consumer.json, defensive.json, bargain-bin.json, travel-leisure.json, healthcare-scan.json, biotech-scan.json, defense-contractors.json, drone-defense.json, geopolitical.json, chemicals.json, ev-clean-energy.json, ai-scan.json, ai-infrastructure.json, cybersec.json, crypto.json, food-security.json, macro-commodities.json, supply-chain-traces.json, insider-universe.json and monster-discoveries.json. Sourced through all 34 of today's scans and all 11 candidate roundups, with 53 refreshed company profiles folded in for signal only. Regime transitions are the code-diffed transitions feed for 2026-09-18 against 2026-09-17, read directly. Book-blind this cycle by instruction: no ledger, account or holdings file was read, so Exit Alerts is empty below — a scope decision, not a data gap. Prior digest for carry-forward: 2026-09-11 (a seven-day gap).


Summary

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate a quarter point on Wednesday — its first increase in three years, and the first under new chair Kevin Warsh — and the board sorted itself almost perfectly by rate sensitivity. The ten-year Treasury yield climbed back to 5% on the decision (Yahoo Finance and CNBC, September 16); the Bank of England held the next day even with UK inflation at 3.1% (CNBC, September 17). Last week's story inverted. The bond complex, which this desk called capitulation-adjacent seven days ago, bounced across all five names on momentum — investment-grade corporates +10.1 points to 39.9, the long bond +7.7 to 42.9, high yield +6.2 to 34.5, total bond +6.1 to 34.8, intermediate Treasuries +4.9 to 31.3 — while none of them moved more than half a percent in price and all five stayed below their 200-day averages with negative years. That is a positioning unwind, not a repair, and the damage it released landed in the equities that price off the same curve.

Five names on the macro board crossed below their 200-day average in a single week and none crossed back: real estate, materials, industrials, metals and mining, and transportation. Every one still carries a positive year, so by this desk's own rule they are long trends newly under test rather than confirmed breakdowns — but the group that sat "barely above the line" a week ago has converted, and the line on each is now overhead: real estate needs +1.5% from Friday's close, materials +0.8%, industrials +1.1%, metals and mining +4.4%, transportation +1.0%. Utilities fell to momentum 31.3 and deepened to 7.8% below its 200-day; financials posted the second-sharpest drop on the board at -11.4 points to 36.9; housing kept transmitting the wrong way with homebuilders at 32.5 and home construction at 33.5, each down roughly 11% on the month. The oversold band widened from 18 names to 23 and changed character from bonds to rate-sensitive equity. For the first time in this stretch, nothing on that board is overbought.

Underneath the flat index, the money went to four places, and three of them moved without any driver this desk can name. Cybersecurity re-rated violently — Zscaler +19.92% on the week and back from 3.2% below its 200-day to 17.2% above it, CrowdStrike +14.95%, SentinelOne +13.97%, Palo Alto +9.96%, Okta +9.53%, Fortinet +8.82% — with every relevant earnings print landing before the window opened and the freshest news pulls returning quote pages only. Crypto turned on hard Friday: all twenty names green, bitcoin +6.26% on the session to $81,189.98, Strategy +16.39% and Coinbase +11.66%, both reclaiming their 200-day averages, and no news pull on this desk covers the day. Semiconductors and optics finished the week with 27 of 28 optical names and 13 of 13 equipment names green on Friday, which MarketWatch (September 17) attributed to fading fears of an AI spending slowdown and of the hike. Healthcare was the one sector to improve on both long-horizon measures at once, up 8.8 momentum points to 49.8 with its year at +22.49% and its 200-day cushion at +8.0%.

The two clearest single-name breaks were both power, and defense stayed broken through the best news it could have had. Constellation Energy fell 10.55% for a second straight week, crossing from 3.6% to 13.0% below its 200-day with its year at -21.07%; Talen fell 6.54% and is now 17.5% below its own. Meanwhile the State Department notified Congress of a first-time sale of up to 48 F-35 fighters to Saudi Arabia worth as much as $24.3 billion (Bloomberg, September 17), a shooting war is running on the Arabian peninsula, and the defense book still does not have a single name trading above its 200-day — Raytheon, General Dynamics and TTM all lost that line this week. The aerospace-and-defense fund at momentum 26.1 is the deepest reading on the whole macro board.


Entry Zones (IN ZONE NOW)

Every name below is a common-stock or index-fund listing with normal trade access, sourced from today's scans and candidate roundups. The research-only exclusion list has largely resolved itself: the OTC and foreign mirrors this digest excluded a week ago — BYDDY, BESIY, DRSHF, SFTBY, LPK.DE — plus EOPSF, ATEYY and SDVKY all left the nightly settled price run on September 11 and 12 as untradeable listings, so none carries a price row today. Kraken Robotics' OTC line ($KRKNF, momentum 32.0) is the one that remains in a scan and it stays excluded by the same rule. Leveraged and inverse products (TNA, SOXL, TQQQ, TECL, SPXL, UPRO, SOXS) are never entry candidates on this desk and are omitted entirely.

EXTREME OVERSOLD (RSI < 20) - Capitulation Territory

No rows. Nothing in the scan corpus reads below 20 this week, and last week's single capitulation name recovered: TJ Maxx ended three consecutive scans of deepening capitulation, lifting from 17.8 to 31.2 on a +0.97% week. The deepest print anywhere in today's corpus is Royal Caribbean at 22.6.

OVERSOLD (RSI 20-30) - Strong Entry Zone

Stock Current Zone RSI 30D Chg Source Action Notes
RCL $245.81 14.5% below its 200-day, widening 22.6↓ -18.22% travel-leisure ⚠️ Avoid Deepest print in the whole corpus; breach widened from 9.7% in one week, -24.55% 1Y, alpha -39.57. No company receipt covers the week (last pull August 28)
CASY $597.48 No support shelf above $560.16 23.8 -28.54% retail-scan, retail candidate 🔍 Watch 🆕 The one deep name with a dated cause: its September 8 first-quarter print, which explains the month, not the -2.92% week. Mixed horizon — +9.89% 1Y against an 18.2% gap to its 200-day
CRS $408.12 Lost its 200-day this week (-6.7%) 23.8↓ -19.97% supply-chain-traces, monster-scan 📈 Accumulate 🆕 The cleanest deep-pullback case here: +65.4% 1Y with alpha +50.39, the best long record of any name in this tier. News pulled today returned no dated event; the 200-day loss makes the long trend under test rather than comfortably intact
ENVA $174.72 Shelf $168.11 25.2↓ -31.32% monster-scan 🔍 Watch 🆕 Week's worst decliner in this tier at -21.82%; news pulled today returned overview and investor-relations pages plus a September 3 valuation piece — no dated driver. Still +37.74% 1Y, alpha +22.72, only 3.4% under its 200-day
IONS $44.44 38.4% below its 200-day 25.4↓ -26.91% biotech-scan ⚠️ Avoid 🆕 Fell 18.02% in a week and took the deepest hole in biotech; news last pulled July 12, two months before the move — news not pulled for this move. -28.02% 1Y, alpha -43.03
PEP $129.75 No shelf on file 25.4↓ -9.0% (7D -4.82%) bargain-bin ⚠️ Avoid 🆕 Deepest strict discount hit on the board and 12.5% below its 200-day with a -7.8% year. News pulled August 25, no September event on record — the drop is reported with no cause
ITA $213.84 7.1% below its 200-day, widening 26.1↓ -13.13% defense-contractors, drone-defense, geopolitical-risk, market-pulse (4x) 🔍 Watch Deepest reading on the macro board; year faded from +9.47% to +5.36%. Sank through a $24.3B F-35 sale notification — the closest name on that board to converting into confirmed damage
NCLH $14.12 28.3% below its 200-day 26.5↓ -18.57% travel-leisure ⚠️ Avoid Cohort's worst on every measure, -44.43% 1Y, alpha -59.45, confirmed death cross
CCL $21.84 21.0% below its 200-day 27.1↓ -18.17% travel-leisure ⚠️ Avoid Third of the capitulating cruise trio, -30.56% 1Y, death cross intact
BKNG $167.90 Shelf $164.18 27.4↓ -21.17% bargain-bin, travel-leisure ⚠️ Avoid Last week's confirmed break kept compounding; breach widened from 6.3% to 9.2%, -22.88% 1Y. News pulled August 4 — no cause on file
RARE $14.51 42.3% below its 200-day 28.1↑ -44.70% biotech-scan 🔍 Watch Climbed out of capitulation on a real, dated event — the FDA cleared its Sanfilippo gene therapy (Endpoints News, September 17). An approval stopped the slide; it did not turn the trend (-50.15% 1Y)
ELVN $49.45 Shelf $45.49 28.3↓ -16.74% (7D -8.97%) monster-scan 🔍 Watch — quality veto 🆕 Best long-horizon numbers in this tier (+148.12% 1Y, 26.5% above its 200-day, alpha +133.10) but it is a clinical-stage biotech, which is the business class this desk does not hold. News last pulled June 21
HD $299.98 12.3% below its 200-day 28.3↓ -12.87% bargain-bin, defensive-scan, retail-scan (3x) ⚠️ Avoid Deepest of the long-established retail names, deteriorating in every scan of this stretch, -28.15% 1Y. News pulled August 23 — no cause on file
SBUX $95.83 Shelf $86.80; 200-day $98.26 overhead 28.8↓ -8.72% consumer-scan, cultural-thesis, defensive-scan, retail-scan, consumer candidate (5x) 🔍 Watch — trend now under test Last week's open question answered the wrong way: it crossed to 2.5% below its 200-day and its one-year excess return went to zero (-0.14). CNBC named it among September 16 movers but the captured item is a headline with no detail — a dated mention, not an established cause
PPA $159.78 6.5% below its 200-day 29.4↓ -10.98% defense-contractors, geopolitical-risk (2x) 🔍 Watch Second defense fund in the band; +5.58% 1Y keeps it out of the damaged column for now
CVS $88.84 Shelf $78.94 29.6↓ -5.14% (7D -6.15%) healthcare-scan 🔍 Watch 🆕 The only operating business in this tier that is oversold and above its 200-day (+1.8%) with a positive year (+19.38%) and positive excess return (+4.36) — ELVN is the only other name that passes those tests and it carries the quality veto. Sharpest single-name reversal in the week's strongest sector. News last pulled July 7; no cause established
PL $16.42 39.6% below its 200-day 29.8↓ -27.41% drone-defense ❌ Don't Buy Thesis rated broken on the desk's own record; a positive year (+54.76%) sitting on a chart 39.6% under its long average is not an entry
KOD $32.71 Shelf $27.73 29.9 -18.37% monster-scan 🔍 Watch — quality veto 🆕 +232.42% 1Y with alpha +217.40 and only 2.9% under its 200-day, but clinical-stage biotech — same class veto as ELVN. News last pulled June 21

APPROACHING OVERSOLD (RSI 30-40) - Watch Closely

This band is where the hike actually landed. Names appearing in two or more of today's scans are listed first-order; the eight rows carrying a positive year, a positive excess return and price at or above their 200-day are the only ones this desk would call deep pullbacks rather than damage.

Stock Current Zone RSI 30D Chg Source Action Notes
HRL $20.83 10.8% below its 200-day 30.0↑ -14.67% defensive-scan 🔍 Watch Bounced off capitulation (23.2→30.0) on a +1.26% week, but -16.55% 1Y with alpha -31.56 — a bounce, not a repair
LHX $247.29 20.9% below its 200-day 30.4↑ -10.76% defense-contractors, geopolitical-risk ⚠️ Avoid One of only three green primes on the week (+0.71%) and still in a collapse regime, -12.53% 1Y
NIO $3.66 28.6% below its 200-day 30.4 -20.09% ev-clean-energy ⚠️ Avoid Board's lowest print in its cohort after a nearly flat week, -50.34% 1Y
LOW $192.49 17.9% below its 200-day 30.7↓ -12.50% bargain-bin, defensive-scan, retail-scan (3x) ⚠️ Avoid The rate-cut premise underneath this name is now the opposite trade; -28.06% 1Y, alpha -43.07. Thesis still rated intact on the record against a collapse regime — the longest-standing mismatch on this board
RTX $194.00 Lost its 200-day this week (-0.1%) 30.7↓ -11.96% defense-contractors, drone-defense, geopolitical-risk (3x) 🔍 Watch Last week's lone prime above its 200-day gave the line up. Best year in the book (+22.64%) with alpha still positive (+7.62) — the defense name closest to being a pullback rather than damage
BRBR $8.98 44.9% below its 200-day 31.1 -16.31% cultural-thesis ❌ Don't Buy Thesis broken on the record; -75.52% 1Y, alpha -90.53, the widest 200-day gap in its book
RCAT $6.75 38.7% below its 200-day 31.1↓ -31.75% drone-defense ❌ Don't Buy 🆕 Week's breakdown in its book at -15.2% on 3.7x average volume; news pulled September 17 returned archive pages with nothing dated to the decline
TJX $127.24 17.2% below its 200-day 31.2↑ -11.94% retail-scan, retail candidate 🔍 Watch Ended three straight scans of deepening capitulation (17.8→31.2) on a +0.97% week. Nothing on file explains the turn and the structure has not repaired (-9.07% 1Y) — needs a second week
SYK $275.12 17.7% below its 200-day 31.3↓ -19.08% healthcare-scan ⚠️ Avoid Kept deteriorating inside the week's best sector, -27.19% 1Y, alpha -42.20
MCD $248.24 15.4% below its 200-day 31.6↓ -7.18% bargain-bin, defensive-scan, retail-scan (3x) ⚠️ Avoid Unchanged in character, -17.57% 1Y; the restaurant and home-improvement blocks are moving down together
DPZ $294.20 18.3% below its 200-day 31.7↓ -12.58% bargain-bin, consumer-scan, cultural-thesis, lazarus-scan, retail-scan (5x) 🔍 Research Fell another 5.58% on a news pull that has not completed since June 21 — nearly three months of no coverage on a name down 31.59% over the year
GD $353.05 Lost its 200-day this week (-0.6%) 32.2↓ -10.01% defense-contractors, geopolitical-risk 🔍 Watch Crossed below with the rest of the primes; +8.77% 1Y but alpha already negative (-6.24)
NKE $35.51 29.3% below its 200-day 32.2↓ -13.50% bargain-bin, consumer-scan, cultural-thesis, lazarus-scan, retail-scan, consumer candidate (6x) ❌ Don't Buy The corpus's most cross-confirmed structural breakdown, scored 0 of 5 on the reversal screen, -50.75% 1Y, alpha -65.76
BA $198.20 10.4% below its 200-day 33.5↓ -10.80% defense-contractors, geopolitical-risk ⚠️ Avoid Worst week in the defense book at -5.82%, -8.1% 1Y
ALB $110.91 29.1% below its 200-day 34.2↓ -17.40% ev-clean-energy 🔍 Watch Lost another 5.62%; the multi-year record holds (+37.04% 1Y, alpha +22.03) but the 200-day gap keeps widening. No pull covers the week (last July 29)
AA $44.43 23.5% below its 200-day 35.3↓ -13.80% macro-commodities ⚠️ Avoid Fell 5.41% Friday on nearly three times normal volume; +35.79% 1Y keeps the long trend technically alive but reclaiming $58.08 is what would settle it. News last pulled September 11
AXON $447.76 11.0% below its 200-day 35.5↓ -30.66% drone-defense ⚠️ Avoid Sharpest 30-day decline in this whole table, -41.58% 1Y, alpha -56.60
COST $895.31 6.8% below its 200-day 35.9↓ -6.45% bargain-bin, defensive-scan, retail-scan, retail candidate (4x) ⚠️ Avoid Year still negative (-5.99%) for a third straight scan; its quarter is scheduled for September 24 on a provider estimate
IMVT $36.95 18.4% above its 200-day 36.1↓ -17.82% biotech-scan, monster-scan 🔍 Watch — quality veto +139.94% 1Y with alpha +124.92 inside an intact trend, but clinical-stage biotech — the same class veto as ELVN and KOD
SQM $67.72 11.5% below its 200-day 36.1↓ -10.16% ev-clean-energy 🔍 Watch Lithium's other half; +57.05% 1Y and alpha +42.04 still intact, no pull covers the week (last August 25)
NFLX $71.79 16.0% below its 200-day 36.3↓ -10.51% (7D -7.25%) bargain-bin, insider-scan, lazarus-scan (3x) ⚠️ Avoid Scored 2 of 5 on the reversal screen — bleeding stopped, structure unrepaired, -40.56% 1Y
CEG $254.71 13.0% below its 200-day 36.4↓ -7.10% (7D -10.55%) ai-scan, bargain-bin, insider-scan, nvda-ecosystem, tech-insider-buys, energy candidate (6x) ❌ Don't Buy The week's most cross-confirmed breakdown. Second straight week down; gap to its 200-day went from 3.6% to 13.0% and the year from -10.5% to -21.07%. News pulled September 17 returned quote pages only; the September equity raise stays the only corporate action on file
LULU $98.06 34.4% below its 200-day 36.4↑ -17.91% bargain-bin, consumer-scan, cultural-thesis, lazarus-scan, retail-scan (5x) ⚠️ Avoid A third consecutive small technical bounce inside a name with alpha of -57.25. Bloomberg reported September 11 that BMO initiated at underperform
ZTS $71.40 29.2% below its 200-day 36.6↓ -6.89% healthcare-scan ⚠️ Avoid Worst trend in the week's best sector, -51.46% 1Y, alpha -66.48
FDX $303.65 2.7% above its 200-day 36.8↓ -7.53% monster-scan 📈 Accumulate 🆕 One of only two large-cap operating businesses in this band that is oversold, above its 200-day, and beating the market by a wide margin (+66.37% 1Y, alpha +51.36). News last pulled June 21 and no scheduled event sits in the window — news not pulled for this move
FMC $10.09 24.8% below its 200-day 37.2↓ -6.66% (7D -11.49%) food-security ❌ Don't Buy Worst name in its book by a factor of two, -72.88% 1Y, alpha -87.90. Pull completed September 3, predating the move
YUM $137.99 10.6% below its 200-day 37.2↓ -5.44% retail-scan, retail candidate ⚠️ Avoid Regime slipped basing→pullback on the code-diffed feed; -5.0% 1Y
INTU $303.19 26.5% below its 200-day 38.0↓ -16.35% bargain-bin, lazarus-scan, tech-insider-buys, cloud-saas candidate (4x) ❌ Don't Buy Thesis flagged broken; new file low, -55.08% 1Y, alpha -70.09, scored 1 of 5 on the reversal screen
CMG $33.43 4.4% below its 200-day 38.2↓ -3.55% (7D -7.65%) consumer-scan, retail-scan 🔍 Watch Worst week on the consumer board. Semafor reported September 15 that it added KFC's former chief executive to its board ahead of a possible activist — a governance event, not a trading catalyst; its own pull dates to July 31
TDY $603.46 2.4% below its 200-day 38.2↓ -6.96% drone-defense, supply-chain-traces 🔍 Watch Positive headline year (+7.26%) with negative excess return (-7.76) for a second straight cycle — the early-stage version of a real breakdown
SLB $51.12 2.5% above its 200-day 38.6↓ -4.54% (7D -8.81%) geopolitical-risk, monster-scan 📈 Accumulate 🆕 The other oversold-inside-an-intact-trend name: +47.15% 1Y, alpha +32.14, still above its 200-day. It fell hardest in the week barrels were threatened — its 200-day cushion went from 13.3% to 2.5%. Pull completed September 1, before the move
ENPH $34.64 15.8% below its 200-day 38.7↓ -12.01% ai-scan, ev-clean-energy, insider-scan (3x) ⚠️ Avoid Solar kept falling with the rest of the capital-intensive complex, -9.89% 1Y
LASR $39.84 30.9% below its 200-day 38.7↓ -16.79% drone-defense 🔍 Watch — setup broken, thesis intact A +3.67% Friday inside a second week of confirmed death cross; +27.69% 1Y but 30.9% under its long average. The profile's own kill test is a Golden Dome failure or loss of Iron Beam validation, none of which has happened
AMGN $385.65 7.0% above its 200-day 39.7↑ -12.82% biotech-scan, healthcare-scan, monster-scan, biotech candidate (4x) 📈 Accumulate Recovered +2.2% after the prior cycle's unexplained collapse; +39.81% 1Y with alpha +24.80 above its 200-day — a deep pullback inside an intact trend, and the cause of the original drop is still not on the record
HAL $33.64 Lost its 200-day this week (-4.5%) 39.9↓ -3.94% (7D -6.14%) geopolitical-risk 🔍 Watch Same oil-services story as Schlumberger, one step further along: it gave up the line this week. +50.45% 1Y, alpha +35.43. Pull dates to July 29

(A further 100-plus names sit in this band across the corpus and are not tabled above. The rate-sensitive funds — utilities 31.3, real estate 31.1, transportation 31.3, homebuilders 32.5, home construction 33.5, retail 34.1, small caps 34.4, industrials 34.4, materials 35.4, equal-weight 36.3, financials 36.9, regional banks 38.0, discretionary 38.0, staples 39.3 — are the policy story and are handled in Sector Rotation below rather than as entries. The bond complex (intermediate Treasuries 31.3, high yield 34.5, total bond 34.8, investment-grade 39.9) bounced on momentum without moving in price and remains below its 200-day and negative on the year across all five names. Volatility products, leveraged funds and the OTC mirror named at the top of this section are excluded by standing policy. Also in the band and not tabled on the damaged side: Harrow 30.5, Toast 31.5, Amer Sports 32.7, Lucid 32.8, Deckers 33.2, GE 34.2, SoundHound 34.5, On Holding 34.7, MP Materials 35.6, Ecolab 36.4, Nektar 38.7, Uber 39.3, PayPal 39.4 and Talen 39.5. Not tabled on the constructive side, all of them oversold while holding a positive year, a positive excess return and price above their 200-day: $CAKE 38.3, $EAT 34.7, $LTH 36.4, $GKOS 39.6, $FTI 39.8, $TKR 37.1, $ALSN 36.9, $ATRO 34.4, $JHX 32.2, $SCHD 38.3, $EE 39.7, $AVAL 36.1, $NGL 38.8 and $CNR 39.6 — with the development-stage drug companies that also clear those tests ($ERAS, $DNTH, $RVMD, $NBTX, $IMNM) carrying the same business-quality veto as ELVN, IMVT and KOD above.)


🔴 THE HIKE SORTED THE BOARD — the week's key cross-asset read

Signal What Happened Structure Underneath Status
Bonds bounced on the hike they were priced for Investment-grade +10.1 momentum points, long bond +7.7, high yield +6.2, total bond +6.1, intermediate Treasuries +4.9 — none moved more than half a percent in price An unwind of an over-extended position, not a repair: all five stay below their 200-day and negative on the year. High yield's flat week is the tell — credit neither panicked nor celebrated 🟡 Needs a second week with price following
Five names lost their 200-day in one week, none regained it Real estate, materials, industrials, metals and mining, transportation Converts a group this desk called "barely intact" into one whose long trend is genuinely under test. Every one still has a positive year 🟡 The reclaim levels are named above
Leadership narrowed measurably The index fell 0.34% on the week while the Nasdaq proxy gained 5.1 momentum points and the equal-weight benchmark lost 4.2; small caps fell to 34.4 A market carried by fewer names has less margin for a single disappointment. This is the thing the index level hides 🔴 Live, unresolved
Volatility failed to bid through a first-in-three-years hike Both volatility products gave back last week's uptick and finished lower; neither is within 32% of its 200-day The board did not pay for protection against the policy path it just got — a positioning read, not a safety read 🟡 Watch
Defense sank through the best news it could have had A $24.3B F-35 notification to Saudi Arabia (Bloomberg, September 17), an active war on the peninsula — and zero of twelve defense names above their 200-day Third consecutive cycle in which the sector a war narrative names first trades as a rates proxy instead 🔴 Unresolved, now escalating

Price Alerts (Waiting for Entry)

Stock Alert Entry Zone Source Set Date Status
META Pullback entry $600-630 ai-scan 07-11 🟠 Ran further past the zone — $665.75, momentum 65.8, +21.93% on the month and 6.7% above its 200-day, but the year is still -14.67% with alpha -29.69. Healing, not repaired; no longer a dip-buy
CEG Golden-cross flip — ai-scan, tech-insider-buys, energy candidate 07-11 🔴 Reversed hard. Gap below its 200-day widened from 3.6% to 13.0%; year deepened to -21.07%. The alert should be retired as a flip watch — this is now a confirmed breakdown, not a pending cross
T Golden-cross flip — defensive-scan, ai-scan 07-11 🟡 Still unresolved and slipping — $25.40, momentum 50.3, only 1.0% above its 200-day after a -2.53% week; year still -13.01% with alpha -28.03
GLD / URA Watch for a golden-cross flip — macro-commodities, etf-universe, geopolitical-risk, market-pulse 07-25 🟡 Split for the first time. Gold narrowed its gap to -3.6% (was -4.1%) and silver to -8.9% (was -11.4%) — the first narrowing in this stretch. Uranium went the other way: its year flipped negative to -8.90% and its gap widened to -14.1%
HUBS Watch whether the divergence resolves — tech-insider-buys 08-08 🔴 Persists and deepened — fell 5.86% Friday on more than seven times normal volume, -57.88% 1Y, 15.1% below its 200-day, a new file low
AVGO Watch its 200-day test resolve — ai-scan, bargain-bin, nvda-ecosystem, tech-insider-buys, insider-scan 08-22 🟡 Still below (-3.1%) at momentum 45.5; the year is now barely positive at +3.55% with alpha -11.46. Thesis rated intact against a long trend genuinely under test
SMCI Watch whether the 1Y ever turns positive — tech-insider-buys 08-28 🔴 Still negative (-14.91%) with alpha -29.92, though the chart improved — momentum 55.4 and 23.7% above its 200-day
TEAM Watch whether the extension cools — tech-insider-buys, monster-scan 08-28 🟠 Extended further — momentum 65.7, 73.0% above its 200-day, within 3.31% of its high. The whole move sits in one quarter (+132.13% 3M) against a +13.20% year with alpha -1.81
ISRG Thesis flag vs. chart divergence — insider-scan, biotech-scan, healthcare-scan, lazarus-scan 08-28 🟡 First real improvement in seven scans — +6.55% on the week, reclaimed its 20-day and 50-day, scored 3 of 5 on the reversal screen. Still 13.6% below its 200-day with a -9.75% year: a broken trend starting to repair, not repaired
ORCL Watch the 200-day / financing test $166.25 reclaim on above-average volume, or loss of the 50-day 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-18 company profiles 09-11 🔴 Deepened — $147.61 after a second down week, 11.2% below its 200-day, -50.24% 1Y with alpha -65.25, the worst relative record in the profile library
ITA Watch whether the year goes negative — market-pulse, defense-contractors 09-18 🆕 New — at momentum 26.1 with the year down to +5.36% and the 200-day gap widened to -7.1%, this is the macro board's closest candidate to converting from "under test" to confirmed damage
SBUX Watch the $98.26 200-day reclaim — consumer-scan, cultural-thesis, defensive-scan, retail-scan 09-18 🆕 New — crossed below this week with its one-year excess return at zero. Either it reclaims that line or the "deep pullback" description stops being true
MU Watch whether the reclaim holds into the print $989.96 (level named in the September 17 brief) memory candidate 09-18 🆕 New — closed $1,015.80, +4.16% on the week, back above the level the brief's buy call was waiting on. The quarter is scheduled for September 30 after the close
CRS Watch the 200-day reclaim — supply-chain-traces 09-18 🆕 New — the deepest oversold print with a genuinely strong long record (+65.4% 1Y, alpha +50.39) just lost its 200-day. Reclaiming it separates a deep pullback from a real break
DBA Watch for the food leg to start Back over its 50-day with momentum above 50, confirmed by a positive food-at-home month in the September inflation print 2026-09-18 energy vertical report 09-18 🔵 Already a desk target — $28.15, momentum 41.4, 0.3% under its 50-day and 4.1% above its 200-day. Review date October 14

Exit Alerts (Holdings)

Book-blind boundary, this cycle by explicit instruction: no ledger, account or holdings file was read to produce this digest. Zero rows below is a scope decision, not a data gap; position management should be read from the standard holdings snapshot the next time this section is populated.

Account Position Current RSI Your Gain First Buy Status
— — — — — — Not populated this cycle (book-blind by instruction)

Sector Rotation Signals

Signal Trigger What It Means Status
The hike split the board by rate sensitivity, cleanly Utilities (31.3), real estate (31.1), transportation (31.3), homebuilders (32.5), home construction (33.5), retail (34.1), financials (36.9) and regional banks (38.0) all fell into or deeper into oversold, while technology (58.2), cybersecurity (57.1), cloud (54.9), software (52.2), semis (54.3) and innovation (61.3) all firmed This is transmission, not direction. The single most useful sorting variable on the board this week was duration, not fundamentals 🔴 Live
Bonds bounced, damage relocated to equity All five fixed-income names gained momentum, none moved half a percent in price, all five stayed below their 200-day and negative on the year The capitulation extreme eased; the structural damage did not repair, and it reappeared in the equities that price off the same curve 🟡 Unresolved
Cybersecurity re-rated as a group, with no cause on file Zscaler +19.92%, CrowdStrike +14.95%, SentinelOne +13.97%, Okta +9.53%, Palo Alto +9.96%, Fortinet +8.82%; the sector fund posted the macro board's best week at +5.79% Every earnings print behind these names landed before the window opened and the freshest pulls return quote pages only. The group re-rated together, hard, and this corpus does not name what started it 🟢 Confirming, cause unestablished
Crypto turned on hard in the same week equities went nowhere Twenty of twenty green Friday; bitcoin +6.26% on the session and +5.2% on the week to $81,189.98; Strategy and Coinbase both reclaimed their 200-day averages; all nine tracked coins now above theirs Read as a risk gauge, this is the first genuinely risk-on session in the tracked window — and no news pull on this desk covers Friday for any name in the complex 🟢 Live, cause unestablished
The washout list doubled and became one theme in several tickers 27 washout turns against 12 a week ago; fourteen of them sit in crypto and the AI-power lane that carries the bitcoin miners now selling data-center capacity A watch class, not an entry pool — nothing on the list reads above momentum 70, so nothing arrived the fast way. Two rows are single-stock option-income funds whose drawdown figures do not mean what they appear to 🟡 Watch
Defense still cannot catch a war bid, third cycle running Zero of twelve names above their 200-day; Raytheon, General Dynamics and TTM all lost the line this week; the sector fund at 26.1 is the macro board's deepest reading — through a $24.3B F-35 notification The sector a war narrative names first keeps trading as a rates proxy. This is now a repeated, cross-confirmed result rather than a one-week oddity 🔴 Escalating
Energy handed back the spike; refiners and tankers took the whole gain The oil fund fell 8.3 momentum points to 63.6 after Saudi Arabia moved to restore its pipeline (Bloomberg, September 16); oil-and-gas producers posted the board's sharpest drop, -16.5 points. Meanwhile Valero closed at momentum 80.1 and Marathon Petroleum at 83.0 The market is pricing a routing and refining problem, not a barrel shortage. At momentum 80, an entry in the refiners buys the extension, not the trend 🟠 Crowded, don't chase
Oil services sold off in the week barrels were threatened Schlumberger -8.81% (cushion cut from 13.3% to 2.5%), Halliburton -6.14% (lost its 200-day), the services fund -5.22% A supply scare that does not bid the drillers is not being read as a supply scare — and it leaves two names with strong multi-year records oversold 🟢 The constructive read in this block
Healthcare was the only sector to improve on both long-horizon measures Sector fund +1.83% on the week against a -0.34% index; year +18.35%→+22.49%; 200-day cushion +6.2%→+8.0%; diagnostics and tools led (Guardant +13.98%, Dexcom +7.61%, Thermo Fisher +6.83%) A genuine, broad sector improvement in a week almost everything else was sorted by duration 🟢 Confirming
The chemicals cohort went fully below the line The sector fund crossed from 1.4% above its 200-day to 0.8% below; seven of nine names now trade under theirs; all nine closed below their 20-day Last cycle's broadening deterioration completed. DuPont is the one exception and it bounced out of oversold this week (+31.64% 1Y, alpha +16.63) while still 6.0% under its own 200-day 🔴 Confirmed
The income and dividend sleeve cracked in one week High-dividend momentum 45.0→32.9, the dividend-quality fund 44.7→38.3, both in five sessions The names people own for yield paid for the hike. Both still carry positive years and positive 200-day cushions, so this is a policy-week repricing rather than damage 🟡 Watch

Regime Transitions

Source: the code-diffed transitions feed. Newest group dated 2026-09-18 against the prior bar, 2026-09-17 — 41 items. Two rows with a null prior state (ALVO, IMOS) are universe churn and are skipped; three (AVAV, DNA, WW) are flagged inert.

Stock From To Thesis Tape Date
XLE breakout uptrend unrated 2026-09-18
XOP breakout uptrend unrated 2026-09-18
COP breakout uptrend unrated 2026-09-18
SLB uptrend pullback unrated 2026-09-18
OXY uptrend pullback unrated 2026-09-18
OIH basing pullback unrated 2026-09-18
BAC uptrend pullback unrated 2026-09-18
GS basing pullback unrated 2026-09-18
APD uptrend basing unrated 2026-09-18
DD basing pullback unrated 2026-09-18
YUM basing pullback unrated 2026-09-18
UNH basing pullback unrated 2026-09-18
ITRI pullback downtrend unrated 2026-09-18
ARES pullback downtrend unrated 2026-09-18
KRC basing downtrend unrated 2026-09-18
HLIT pullback collapse unrated 2026-09-18
RVMD uptrend pullback intact-but-priced 2026-09-18
BRKR / CGON / GHRS / MTD pullback uptrend unrated 2026-09-18
DE / SOYB / CHRD / EQNR breakout uptrend unrated 2026-09-18

The feed cross-confirms three of this cycle's narrative reads without depending on any of them. Energy's four breakout→uptrend flips (the sector fund, the producers fund, ConocoPhillips, Equinor) are exactly the cooldown the commodities scan describes — a breakout resolving into a normal uptrend, not a break — while the oil-service and producer names rolled the other way ($SLB, $OXY, $HP and $MTDR all uptrend→pullback, the oil-services fund basing→pullback), which is the same services-versus-barrel divergence the geopolitical scan found independently. Financials show up as Bank of America and Goldman Sachs both losing their prior state on the hike week. And the healthcare repair the sector board flagged appears here as four names crossing pullback→uptrend, all of them tools or clinical-stage names. The remaining items are eleven uptrend→pullback and four uptrend→basing flips spread across the tape — broad cooling with no thesis rating attached, consistent with the breadth story rather than adding to it.


Insider Activity Summary

Signal Stocks Implication
Buying list widened back to five names TSLA +$219.0M, CRSP +$28.1M, ASAN +$8.7M, INTC +$2.4M, TSM +$1.5M Tesla and CRISPR rejoined after a week of invisibility in the report. That closes last cycle's visibility gap rather than confirming any behaviour change
Golden signal (oversold plus buying): zero for a seventh straight week None — nothing in the 59-name insider universe closed below momentum 30 The clean read now spans seven full cycles
Top-of-report visibility gap closed Amazon (-$9.4B) and Nvidia (-$3.9B) reappeared as the two largest tracked sellers, ahead of Lilly (-$3.0B), Palantir (-$2.0B) and Broadcom (-$1.6B) Last week's report did not show them and this week's does — a reporting artefact resolved, not new selling
Heavy selling stays concentrated in strong trends Moderna (+505.3% 1Y), Intel (+255.3%), AMD (+254.5%), DigitalOcean (+249.7%), Marvell (+229.0%) lead the universe on the long horizon while carrying the heaviest tracked selling Insider selling in this universe is a poor standalone sell signal; each name's trend has to be read separately
The report prints only its top 20 sellers by size 52 selling names counted, 32 smaller positions unnamed A known truncation in the source report, not a data loss

Pending Research Actions

Action Source Priority Status
Do the five names that lost their 200-day this week — real estate, materials, industrials, metals and mining, transportation — reclaim it, or convert to confirmed damage? The reclaim levels are +1.5%, +0.8%, +1.1%, +4.4% and +1.0% from Friday's close market-pulse High 🆕 New
What started the cybersecurity re-rate? Six names ran 8-20% in one week with every earnings print predating the window and every fresh pull returning quote pages cybersec, tech-insider-buys, ai-scan, cloud-saas candidate High 🆕 New
What drove Friday's crypto session? Twenty of twenty green, bitcoin +6.26% on the day, two names reclaiming their 200-day, and no news pull covering the date crypto-scan, washout-scan, crypto candidate High 🆕 New
Does the bond complex's bounce hold with price following, or was it purely a positioning unwind? The test is a second week of momentum gains with price market-pulse, macro-commodities High Carried from 09-11, reframed — last cycle's capitulation question resolved into this one
Does defense ever catch a war premium? Zero of twelve above their 200-day through a $24.3B F-35 notification and an active peninsula war defense-contractors, geopolitical-risk, drone-defense High Carried, escalated (3rd cycle)
Does Constellation Energy's second 10%+ down week stabilise, or is the merchant-power leg of the AI trade genuinely broken? Talen is four scans into the same deterioration ai-scan, nvda-ecosystem, tech-insider-buys, energy candidate High Carried from 09-11, escalated
Does Starbucks reclaim its $98.26 200-day, or does the last consumer name with an intact long trend join the damaged column? consumer-scan, cultural-thesis, defensive-scan, retail-scan High Carried from 09-11, now resolved the wrong way once
Do the two oil-service names sold off into a supply scare — Schlumberger at 38.6 and Halliburton at 39.9, both with strongly positive years and excess returns — mark the constructive entry in the energy block, or keep giving up ground? geopolitical-risk, macro-commodities Medium 🆕 New
Does TJ Maxx's break from three straight capitulation scans hold a second week, with nothing on file explaining the turn? retail-scan Medium Carried, reframed — the deepening question became a turn question
Enova fell 21.82% in a week with a same-day news pull that returned nothing dated. Does a driver surface, or is this a genuine coverage hole on a name still +37.74% over the year? monster-scan Medium 🆕 New
Ionis fell 18.02% on a news file last pulled July 12. The gap is the finding — does a pull covering September change the read? biotech-scan Medium 🆕 New
Does Intuitive Surgical's 3-of-5 reversal score convert into a 200-day reclaim, ending the longest-running thesis-versus-chart divergence on this board? lazarus-scan, insider-scan, healthcare-scan, biotech-scan Medium Carried from 09-11, first improvement
Does gold and silver's first narrowing of the gap to their 200-day in this stretch mark the end of the round trip, or reverse for a third time? macro-commodities, market-pulse, GLD-GDX profile Medium Carried from 09-11, direction changed

The Gold

Top Signal

The Fed's first hike in three years did not sell the market off — it re-sorted it, and the sorting variable was duration. The index closed 0.34% lower on the week while five names lost their 200-day average in five sessions and none regained it, the oversold band widened from 18 to 23 on the macro board and changed character from bonds to rate-sensitive equity, and the bond complex bounced on momentum without moving in price. That last detail is the one to hold onto: the extreme eased and the damage did not repair, because all five fixed-income names are still below their 200-day and still negative on the year. Everything that got hurt this week prices off the curve — utilities, real estate, financials, regional banks, housing, retail, transportation — and everything that worked is long-duration growth that apparently stopped caring: technology, cloud, software, semis, cybersecurity and crypto. The actionable residue is small and specific. Most of the oversold band is damage rather than discount: 156 names in the scan corpus closed below momentum 40, and exactly 27 of them pass both long-horizon tests — price at or above the 200-day with a positive year and a positive excess return. One of those 27 is a leveraged fund and is never a candidate here. Seven more — ELVN, IMVT, ERAS, DNTH, RVMD, NBTX and IMNM — are development-stage drug companies, the business class this desk does not hold; that is a judgement on business quality, not a field in the data, and it is stated rather than buried. What is left is a short list worth a second look: Schlumberger (+47.15% 1Y, alpha +32.14, 2.5% above its 200-day) and Halliburton, sold off in the exact week barrels were threatened; FedEx (+66.37% 1Y, alpha +51.36) on a news file untouched since June; Amgen (+39.81%, alpha +24.80) recovering from a collapse whose cause is still not on the record; CVS, the only operating business under momentum 30 anywhere in the corpus that is also above its 200-day with a positive year; and, as the one name that fails the 200-day test but has the strongest long record in the entire oversold tier, Carpenter Technology (+65.4%, alpha +50.39), now testing the line it lost this week. The rest of the band is the hike doing its job.

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
Five macro-board names crossed below their 200-day in one week and none crossed back — real estate, materials, industrials, metals and mining, transportation The largest one-week structural conversion this dashboard has recorded in the stretch; all five still carry positive years, so they are under test, not broken
The bond complex bounced on momentum across all five names without moving more than half a percent in price A positioning unwind, not a repair — every one is still below its 200-day and negative on the year, which is the opposite of what a bounce usually implies
Six cybersecurity names ran 8-20% in a single week with every earnings print predating the window and every fresh news pull returning quote pages The largest unexplained group move on the board, and the single biggest structural repair in it: Zscaler went from 3.2% below its 200-day to 17.2% above
All twenty crypto names closed green Friday, bitcoin +6.26% on the session, Strategy and Coinbase both reclaiming their 200-day, with no news pull covering the date The first genuinely risk-on session in the tracked window, and it happened in the same week policy tightened — whatever drove it did not come from the equity tape
Zero of twelve defense names trade above their 200-day, through a $24.3B F-35 sale notification and an active war on the Arabian peninsula Third consecutive cycle confirming defense trades as a rates proxy rather than a war-premium name — a repeated result now, not an anomaly
Constellation Energy fell 10.55% for a second straight week and now sits 13.0% below its 200-day with a -21.07% year; Talen is 17.5% below its own The merchant-power leg of the AI-demand trade is the one part of that complex genuinely failing while chips ran
Healthcare was the only sector to improve on both its year and its 200-day cushion at once, led by diagnostics and tools rather than large-cap pharma The one broad sector improvement in a week sorted almost entirely by duration
Refiners and tankers closed at momentum 77-83 while crude gave the week back and the drillers sold off The market is pricing a routing and refining problem, not a barrel shortage — and at those readings an entry buys the extension, not the trend
Of 156 scan-covered names below momentum 40, exactly 27 pass both long-horizon tests — and one of those is a leveraged fund while seven are development-stage drug companies The oversold band is mostly damage this week, and depth is not the signal — the long-horizon columns are. A ratio this low is itself the read on how broad the rate-driven selling was
The research-only exclusion list from last cycle resolved itself — seven OTC and foreign mirrors left the nightly settled price run on September 11 and 12 Coverage cleanup, not a market event, but it removes a recurring caveat from this section

Sourced from all 34 of today's scans, all 11 candidate roundups, the 53 refreshed company profiles (signal only, not price truth), the 2026-09-18 energy vertical report, and the code-diffed regime-transitions feed for 2026-09-18 against 2026-09-17. Every price and momentum figure was validated directly against its source summary file this session. Prior digest for carry-forward: research/issues/2026-09-11-actions-daily-digest.md (a seven-day gap).

Sources

  • Price, momentum, trend and long-horizon truth: research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json (2026-09-18 close) — read directly this session for market-pulse.json, etf-ideas.json, buffer-signals.json, retail.json, consumer.json, defensive.json, bargain-bin.json, travel-leisure.json, healthcare-scan.json, biotech-scan.json, defense-contractors.json, drone-defense.json, geopolitical.json, chemicals.json, ev-clean-energy.json, ai-scan.json, ai-infrastructure.json, cybersec.json, crypto.json, food-security.json, macro-commodities.json, supply-chain-traces.json, insider-universe.json, cultural-thesis.json, electricity.json, ai-power.json, monster-discoveries.json, focus.json and the remaining watchlist summaries.
  • Scan corpus: research/scans/2026-09-18-*.md (34 files: ai-infrastructure, ai-scan, airlines, bargain-bin, biotech-scan, chemicals, cloud-etfs, consumer-scan, crypto-scan, cultural-thesis, cybersec, defense-contractors, defensive-scan, drone-defense, etf-universe, ev-clean-energy, food-security, geopolitical-risk, healthcare-scan, insider-scan, lazarus-scan, macro-commodities, market-pulse, monster-discover, monster-scan, nvda-ecosystem, optical-supply-chain, retail-scan, scan-monster-etf-v2, supply-chain-traces, tech-insider-buys, travel-leisure, washout-scan, wfe-test-metrology).
  • Candidate roundups: research/candidates/2026-09-18-*.md (11 files: ai-infra, biotech, cloud-saas, consumer, crypto, energy, mag7, memory, retail, space, web-cloud).
  • Company profiles, signal only: research/company-profiles/2026-09-18-*.md (53 files).
  • Vertical report: research/issues/2026-09-18-vertical-energy-oil-freight-not-food.md (the DBA watch above is its desk call, carried here rather than restated).
  • Regime transitions: the dated regime snapshots read through the transitions feed, 2026-09-18 against 2026-09-17.
  • Federal Reserve decision and market reaction: research/capture/articles/2026-09-16-yahoofinance-fed-hikes-main-interest-rate-by-quarter-point-citing-stubbor-e-135731525-html.md, research/capture/articles/2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844.md, research/capture/articles/2026-09-16-cnbc-10-year-treasury-yield-climbs-back-to-5-after-fed-hikes-rate-108363494.md, research/capture/articles/2026-09-16-cnbc-here-is-what-changed-in-the-new-fed-statement-under-warsh-108363808.md.
  • Bank of England hold: research/capture/articles/2026-09-17-cnbc-bank-of-england-defies-fed-s-rate-hike-lead-leaving-rates-un-108363610.md.
  • Saudi pipeline, crude and diesel: research/capture/articles/2026-09-14-cnbc-oil-prices-rise-after-saudi-arabia-shuts-down-critical-pipel-108362194.md, research/capture/articles/2026-09-15-yahoofinance-saudi-oil-crisis-deepens-as-aramco-suspends-yanbu-loadings-o-170000784-html.md, research/capture/articles/2026-09-16-bloomberg-oil-holds-drop-as-saudi-arabia-moves-to-restore-vital-pipeli-tlfzdrkjh6v400.md.
  • Defense and Middle East items cited inline: Bloomberg September 17 (F-35 notification and classified missile production), Semafor September 15 and 16 (Bab el-Mandeb islands, Mecca drone interception), CNBC September 17 (stalled ceasefire push) — all cited within research/scans/2026-09-18-defense-contractors.md and research/scans/2026-09-18-geopolitical-risk.md.
  • Single-name receipts cited inline: RARE FDA Sanfilippo approval (Endpoints News, September 17, via research/scans/2026-09-18-biotech-scan.md); CASY first-quarter fiscal 2027 print (September 8, news pull dated 2026-09-17); ENVA (research/market-engine/data/stocks/ENVA/news/latest.json, pulled 2026-09-18 — overview and investor-relations pages plus a September 3 valuation piece, nothing dated to the move); CRS (research/market-engine/data/stocks/CRS/news/latest.json, pulled 2026-09-18 — no dated event); CEG (research/market-engine/data/stocks/CEG/news/latest.json, pulled 2026-09-19 — quote pages only); IONS (pull dated 2026-07-12, predates the move); FDX (pull dated 2026-06-21, predates the move; no scheduled event in research/market-engine/data/calendar.json for the window); CVS (pull dated 2026-07-07); SLB (pull dated 2026-09-01); CMG board appointment (Semafor, September 15); LULU coverage initiation (Bloomberg, September 11); chip-comeback framing (MarketWatch, September 17, via the optical and equipment scans).
  • Prior comparison cycle: research/scans/2026-09-11-market-pulse.md and the other 2026-09-11 scans, as cited within today's scans.
  • Exit alerts: not populated this cycle — book-blind by explicit instruction; no holdings, ledger or account data was read.

No direct external sources are attached to this read.