🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-09-18
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1454ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
30 sources · 23 fresh · 6 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 179d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 143d |
| apricitas | rss | 2026-05-06 | 136d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 33d |
| netinterest | rss | 2026-09-11 | 8d |
| phynvesting | rss | 2026-09-11 | 8d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 20 TRIM verdicts (19 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 2 risk-on regime gauges • 1 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-09-18
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -4.89 30d spread pct pts |
| VIXY fear proxy | vol_compressed | risk_on | -56.9 pct from 52w high |
| Broad-market ETF breadth | short_term_fragile | risk_off | 40 pct above SMA50 |
🟠 TRIM — 20 positions
19 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- XLU (bench-signals, -9.0%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -9.0%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (bench-signals, -3.8%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -3.3%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -1.3%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (claude-trader, +2.0%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +2.0%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +2.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +2.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +3.0%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +5.3%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +5.3%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +6.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +6.7%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +9.0%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +13.8%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +21.1%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +21.1%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (claude-trader, +21.5%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILD | yolo | +15.1% | partial-profit |
+15.1% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +13.3% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 9 | +12.9% | atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: LOW), gottheimer-trades... |
| NVDA | 7 | +10.6% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), conviction, khanna-trades... |
| AVGO | 8 | +6.9% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f, khanna-trades... |
| V | 4 | +22.7% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), hohn-13f, klarman-13f (tier: LOW) |
| SNDK | 4 | +148.6% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, gottheimer-trades, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| BE | 3 | +123.3% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| ARM | 7 | +33.7% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail... |
| DHR | 3 | +5.8% | conviction, loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| MSFT | 4 | +12.3% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), conviction, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| META | 6 | +13.2% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| UBER | 4 | -0.5% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| CVS | 5 | -4.5% | bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail, yolo (tier: LOW) |
| MU | 5 | +155.3% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, gottheimer-trades, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| CF | 4 | +1.9% | bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail, momentum-trader |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOVA | $10.25 | 75.5 | +162.2% | +28.3% | +142% |
| MRNA | $154.04 | 63.3 | +140.8% | -11.7% | +156% |
| TEAM | $192.02 | 65.7 | +132.1% | +10.2% | +73% |
| ABCL | $12.65 | 66.9 | +128.8% | +5.3% | +130% |
| TXG | $76.60 | 73.7 | +120.4% | +23.2% | +145% |
| AMLX | $32.41 | 53.1 | +106.8% | -16.0% | +83% |
| CDNA | $53.83 | 70.1 | +105.6% | +15.7% | +102% |
| ASST | $30.09 | 78.6 | +102.6% | +104.3% | +101% |
| ATRC | $58.10 | 77.7 | +101.7% | +22.0% | +64% |
| CVI | $53.69 | 81.4 | +96.0% | +46.3% | +71% |
| TWST | $166.99 | 73.0 | +90.7% | +17.3% | +140% |
| DK | $78.12 | 61.1 | +88.4% | +17.8% | +67% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 8
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA-USD | $0.22 | 58 | +2.5% | -47.0% | 1.7× | VA | crypto |
| DOT-USD | $1.14 | 64 | +5.1% | -45.3% | 1.4× | VA | crypto |
| DOGE-USD | $0.09 | 63 | +3.3% | -36.5% | 1.7× | POC | crypto |
| XRP-USD | $1.40 | 56 | +10.1% | -25.2% | 1.6× | POC | crypto |
| DGXX | $4.09 | 56 | +4.4% | -19.8% | 3.4× | VA | ai-power |
| RXRX | $3.83 | 62 | +6.2% | -13.3% | 2.8× | VA | biotech-capital-cycle, biotech-scan |
| EDIT | $2.70 | 43 | +2.8% | -6.2% | 7.0× | POC | biotech-scan, holdings-stocks |
| COIN | $194.25 | 58 | +2.7% | -9.8% | 2.0× | VA | crypto, hard-assets |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 1
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEOG | $13.00 | 74 | +34.7% | -0.5% | 3.5× | highs | livestock-disease |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 8
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATRC (also in monsters — extension + churn) | $58.10 | 78 | +60.0% | +10.9% | 8.7× | +6.5% | healthcare, monster-discoveries |
| MPC | $424.89 | 83 | +74.7% | +9.7% | 4.0× | +7.3% | monster-discoveries |
| VLO | $413.28 | 80 | +77.0% | +10.7% | 3.3× | +5.9% | geopolitical |
| CLMT | $59.00 | 77 | +85.1% | +11.5% | 2.1× | +3.9% | monster-discoveries |
| SDGR | $29.02 | 77 | +76.6% | +36.8% | 3.3× | +52.6% | biotech-capital-cycle, ibb |
| DINO | $115.90 | 78 | +77.7% | +10.4% | 2.4× | +7.5% | monster-discoveries |
| NEO | $19.91 | 74 | +73.7% | +11.2% | 2.5× | +14.9% | monster-discoveries |
| PSX | $273.13 | 78 | +59.3% | +7.4% | 3.7× | +5.3% | geopolitical |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
Related
3 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.