🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-09-23
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1698ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
30 sources · 24 fresh · 5 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 183d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 147d |
| apricitas | rss | 2026-05-06 | 140d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 37d |
| phynvesting | rss | 2026-09-11 | 12d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 19 TRIM verdicts (18 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 3 risk-on regime gauges • 1 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-09-23
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -10.39 30d spread pct pts |
| VIXY fear proxy | vol_compressed | risk_on | -57.7 pct from 52w high |
| Broad-market ETF breadth | short_term_fragile | risk_off | 40 pct above SMA50 |
| Sector ETF relative-strength rotation | cyclicals_leading_defensives | risk_on | 4.77 cyclical-minus-defensive 30d pct pts |
🟠 TRIM — 19 positions
18 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- XLU (bench-signals, -12.0%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -12.0%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (bench-signals, -5.8%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -5.3%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -2.3%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +0.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +0.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (claude-trader, +3.0%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +3.0%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +3.1%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +6.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +6.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +7.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +7.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +8.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +14.7%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +24.4%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +35.3%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILD | yolo | +16.1% | partial-profit |
+16.1% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +11.3% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 9 | +9.1% | atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: LOW), gottheimer-trades... |
| NVDA | 7 | +12.3% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), conviction, khanna-trades... |
| AVGO | 8 | +6.1% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f, khanna-trades... |
| V | 4 | +20.4% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), hohn-13f, klarman-13f (tier: LOW) |
| SNDK | 4 | +152.0% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, gottheimer-trades, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| BE | 3 | +131.4% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| DHR | 3 | +10.6% | conviction, loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| MSFT | 4 | +13.9% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), conviction, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| UBER | 4 | -2.0% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| CVS | 5 | -7.7% | bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail, yolo (tier: LOW) |
| META | 5 | +24.7% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, bench-signals-trail, loeb-13f (tier: LOW), tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| MU | 5 | +169.4% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, gottheimer-trades, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| CF | 4 | -3.7% | bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail, momentum-trader |
| VST | 3 | -11.8% | atreides-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZCSH | $121.58 | 78.5 | +371.2% | +89.7% | +246% |
| BWET | $739.40 | 62.4 | +341.3% | +58.9% | +297% |
| MRNA | $182.11 | 71.9 | +201.4% | +31.1% | +191% |
| IOVA | $10.19 | 69.0 | +139.8% | +26.4% | +134% |
| TEAM | $195.08 | 64.2 | +139.2% | +13.9% | +75% |
| ASST | $28.99 | 70.5 | +131.0% | +46.9% | +92% |
| TXG | $75.62 | 64.6 | +118.5% | +18.5% | +135% |
| ATRC | $59.96 | 80.7 | +112.0% | +21.7% | +68% |
| ABCL | $12.31 | 62.0 | +104.2% | +16.0% | +119% |
| CDNA | $54.31 | 64.5 | +100.2% | +14.3% | +100% |
| FIVN | $37.68 | 64.4 | +93.4% | +15.0% | +70% |
| CVI | $51.80 | 71.6 | +93.3% | +36.2% | +64% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 8
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA-USD | $0.24 | 63 | +12.2% | -39.5% | 1.7× | VA | crypto |
| DOGE-USD | $0.09 | 55 | +3.2% | -34.2% | 2.2× | POC | crypto |
| XRP-USD | $1.48 | 58 | +16.1% | -19.4% | 2.2× | VA | crypto |
| SOL-USD | $114.11 | 63 | +35.5% | -7.8% | 1.6× | VA | crypto |
| LINK-USD | $12.22 | 55 | +31.7% | -1.7% | 1.6× | VA | crypto |
| NP | $27.76 | 27 | +1.3% | +1.5% | 1.6× | POC | monster-discoveries |
| CRSP | $55.76 | 51 | +4.5% | -0.0% | 1.5× | VA | biotech, biotech-scan |
| AES | $14.81 | 55 | +1.1% | +1.9% | 1.4× | POC | electricity, thebuildout-renewable-energy-hyperscaler-ppas |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 1
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIIB | $227.53 | 63 | +17.6% | -0.7% | 1.6× | highs | biotech-scan, healthcare |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 3
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWLO | $290.70 | 75 | +81.8% | +20.4% | 2.1× | +21.7% | holdings-stocks, insider-universe |
| GRAL | $108.52 (as of 09-22) | 81 | +49.0% | +32.4% | 3.3× | +43.0% | biotech-scan, monster-discoveries |
| VKTX | $41.65 | 72 | +22.9% | +25.9% | 3.6× | +41.1% | biotech-capital-cycle, peptide-economy |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.