Cloud ETFs — September 25, 2026 Close
Cloud ETFs — September 25, 2026 Close
The two-week rally paused: all four cloud and software funds gave back RSI and price this window, with the true-cloud fund (WCLD) hit hardest — RSI fell from 57.5 to 49.8, its steepest drop on this board. The move lines up with a market-wide bond shock: Treasury yields surged on September 23–24, with the 30-year hitting its highest level since 2004 and Wall Street pricing in renewed Fed rate-hike risk, a combination that typically hits high-multiple growth names hardest. Even after the pullback, all four funds remain solidly above their 200-day averages — this reads as a pullback inside an intact trend, not a break.
Data as-of the 2026-09-25 close. Prior scan: the September 23 cloud ETF scan (data as-of the 2026-09-23 close). This edition covers a short, two-trading-day window — Wednesday's close to Friday's — rather than a full week.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 All four funds pulled back together after two straight green weeks, in line with a broad bond-market shock; none is oversold, and all remain well above their 200-day averages. |
| Leaders | CLOU (RSI 54.0, smallest RSI decline) and SKYY (RSI 55.7) held up best relative to the group. |
| Laggards | WCLD (RSI 49.8, down from 57.5 — the board's steepest drop). |
| Caveat | No fund-specific news exists for this basket; the macro driver cited here (the Treasury yield surge) is sourced from market-wide capture, not a fund-level receipt. |
What's Going On
The reversal flagged as a two-week rally in the prior scan paused hard this window. Every fund's RSI and price fell: WCLD's RSI dropped from 57.5 to 49.8 (price $41.59 to $40.28), IGV's from 59.0 to 53.7 (price $108.10 to $106.01), CLOU's from 61.6 to 54.0 (price $29.14 to $28.39), and SKYY's from 61.6 to 55.7 (price $167.54 to $164.68). WCLD's drop was the steepest on the board, and its trailing 7-day figure (+0.1%) is now barely positive after running well ahead of the group in the prior two scans.
A plausible, dated market-wide cause is on file, though it is not fund-specific. Bond yields surged on September 23, with MarketWatch reporting "bond yields surge above 5% as Wall Street fears more Fed rate hikes," and noting stocks fell broadly with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 retreating from record territory. Bloomberg followed on September 24 with "Bond Yields Soar, Spiking Fed Rate Hike Bets," and multiple outlets reported the 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2004 and the 10-year at a 19-year high. Rising discount rates compress the valuations of high-multiple growth software names first — the pattern here (a broad, simultaneous RSI decline across every name in the basket, with the highest-multiple fund hit hardest) is consistent with that macro story, though no single-fund receipt confirms it directly.
Even with the pullback, none of the four funds is close to oversold, and the longer-horizon picture is untouched: all four remain comfortably above their 200-day averages, from 13.2% (IGV) to 24.8% (SKYY). IGV's trailing year — the one negative print flagged across the last several scans — continued its slow repair, moving from -7.13% to -6.93%, even as its week and month both cooled. This is a two-day pullback inside trends that are still, by the long-horizon measures, intact.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-23 close → 2026-09-25 close)
- WCLD had the board's steepest pullback: RSI 57.5→49.8, price $41.59→$40.28, 7D +1.79%→+0.10%, 30D +2.92%→+0.47%.
- IGV eased: RSI 59.0→53.7, price $108.10→$106.01, 7D +2.99%→+1.59%, 30D +5.51%→+3.54%; trailing year continued its slow repair, -7.13%→-6.93%.
- CLOU eased, still the mildest pullback: RSI 61.6→54.0, price $29.14→$28.39, 7D +4.00%→+2.05%, 30D +5.2%→+3.31%.
- SKYY eased: RSI 61.6→55.7, price $167.54→$164.68, 7D +3.49%→+1.64%, 30D +5.39%→+3.01%.
- Regime unchanged despite the pullback: all four funds remain above both their 50-day and 200-day averages; none reached oversold.
- No entrants, no dropouts.
How To Read The Board
Everything here is tape. There is no fund-specific news for this basket — the macro cause cited above comes from market-wide capture (bond yields, Fed rate-hike repricing), not a receipt naming any of these four tickers directly, so it explains the shape of the move (a synchronized, valuation-driven pullback) without confirming the mechanism for any single fund.
On structure, nothing has changed: all four funds sit well above both their 50-day and 200-day averages, and the pullback has not dented the 200-day cushions (13.2% to 24.8%). Three funds still carry positive trailing years and positive alpha; IGV, the one exception, keeps healing scan over scan even through this window's price weakness. These are baskets, not single names — a falling RSI here says the group's average moved, not any one holding inside it.
The cross-read to the cybersecurity board — flagged for two straight scans as moving in the same direction as this one — held again this window, but in reverse: cybersecurity pulled back hard over the same two days, with Zscaler's RSI falling from 70.5 to 53.6, the sharpest move on that board. Software and security continue to move as one complex, and this window they moved down together rather than up.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYY | $164.68 | 55.7 | $162.85 | +1.1% | +1.64% | +3.01% | 🟡 Neutral |
| CLOU | $28.39 | 54.0 | $28.16 | +0.8% | +2.05% | +3.31% | 🟡 Neutral |
| IGV | $106.01 | 53.7 | $105.51 | +0.5% | +1.59% | +3.54% | 🟡 Neutral |
| WCLD | $40.28 | 49.8 | $40.89 | -1.5% | +0.10% | +0.47% | 🟡 Neutral |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): None.
Neutral/Strong (RSI 40 and up): All four, now spanning 49.8 to 55.7 — down from last scan's 57.5 to 61.6, the first pullback in the range after two straight scans of it moving higher.
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice.
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis / condition |
|---|---|---|
| SKYY | $162.85 (20-day) as support | Held up best of the four this window; still 24.8% over its 200-day with a +22.87% trailing year. |
| CLOU | $28.16 (20-day) as support | Smallest RSI decline on the board; 24.7% over its 200-day, +21.38% trailing year. |
| IGV | $105.51 (20-day) reclaim | Trailing year kept healing (-7.13% to -6.93%) even through this window's pullback, still the group's only negative print. |
| WCLD | $40.89 (20-day) reclaim | Steepest pullback on the board this window; still 23.8% over its 200-day. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SKYY, CLOU | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold | Intact uptrends absorbing a broad, macro-driven pullback; 200-day cushions untouched. |
| IGV | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Trailing year keeps healing despite the pullback; still hasn't crossed positive. |
| WCLD | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Steepest RSI drop on the board this window; watch whether the pullback extends. |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether the bond-yield shock (30-year at its highest since 2004, per capture) keeps pressuring this complex | High-multiple software names are typically the first hit when discount rates rise; this window's synchronized pullback fits that pattern. |
| Whether WCLD's steeper pullback is a warning for the rest of the group | It led the rally on the way up in the prior scan and led the decline on the way down this window. |
| Whether IGV's trailing year finishes crossing into positive territory | It has moved from -9.68% to -9.55% to -7.13% to -6.93% across four scans — still healing, still not there. |
| Whether the cybersecurity cross-read continues to move with this board | Both complexes ran green together for two weeks and pulled back together this window. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| All four funds pulled back together after two straight green weeks, coinciding with a broad Treasury-yield surge (30-year at its highest since 2004, per market-wide capture) | The prior scan's rally paused on a macro shock rather than a fund-specific event — worth tracking whether it resumes once yields stabilize. |
| WCLD led the rally up and led the pullback down | The name with the highest recent momentum also carries the highest sensitivity to this window's reversal. |
| The 200-day cushions (13.2% to 24.8%) were untouched by the pullback | This reads as a pullback inside an intact trend on the long-horizon measures, not a structural break. |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Assuming a two-week rally would extend to a third | It paused this window on a macro shock — momentum in a basket like this can reverse fast even with no fund-specific news. |
Open Questions
- Does this pullback extend into a third scan, or was it a one-window reaction to the bond-yield surge?
- Does IGV's trailing year finally cross positive, or does the macro pullback stall the repair?
- Does the cybersecurity cross-read keep holding as these two complexes move together?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — cloud-etfs.
- Prior-scan comparison values: 2026-09-23-cloud-etfs.
- Cross-read to the security complex: cybersec as of the 2026-09-25 close.
- Market-wide bond-yield surge and Fed rate-hike repricing, September 23–24 — 2026-09-23-marketwatch-bond-yields-surge-above-5-as-wall-street-fears-more-fed-rate--mktw-0005249446, 2026-09-24-bloomberg-bond-yields-soar-spiking-fed-rate-hike-bets-tlvzzbkip3k900, 2026-09-23-semafor-us-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-19-year-high-on-strong-manufa-hes-19-year-high. No fund-specific receipt confirms this as the mechanism for any single ticker's move.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.