Healthcare Scan
Healthcare Scan
$CVS reversed hard out of capitulation — RSI 24.4 to 40.1, price up 3.8% — but the desk's news file has nothing new beyond the same Q2 earnings recap already priced in weeks ago, so the size of the bounce has no established cause. $ATRC pulled back from last scan's extreme RSI 80.7 to 68.5, giving back some of its 21.67% monthly run. $MRNA crossed into extreme territory (RSI 76.1) alongside its twin appearance in the biotech cut. The sector fund flipped back ahead of the broader market this week, up 1.37% against the S&P 500 proxy's 1.27% — a reversal of last scan's laggard read.
Data as-of the 2026-09-25 close (Friday's settled session, per the pre-computed scan summary) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar; universe unchanged at 24 tickers.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 The cut's capitulation band emptied entirely and the sector fund edged back ahead of the broader market, even as the bounce behind the week's biggest mover ($CVS) has no established cause |
| Leaders | $MRNA (RSI 76.1, extreme, +708.13% on the year); $ATRC (68.5, pulled back from last scan's extreme 80.7, still +66.66% on the year); $VEEV (67.2, +7.87% on the week) |
| Laggards | $SYK (32.1, -26.1% on the year, the cut's deepest structural break); $HROW (34.1, -28.34% on the year); $ABT (36.1, newly oversold) |
| Key insight | $CVS's reversal from capitulation (RSI 24.4) to comfortably neutral (40.1) in two sessions is the cut's largest move, and it happened without any new information reaching the desk's news file — the same Q2 recap from August is the only item on record |
| Caveat | $ATRC's news file was last pulled September 16 and can't speak to this week's pullback; $GH's last confirmed pull (September 19) still shows nothing newer than September 4 |
What's Going On
$CVS was the week's sharpest reversal. Two sessions ago it had fallen into the cut's first capitulation print, losing its 200-day at RSI 24.4. This week it closed at $89.13, RSI 40.1 — a 3.8% price gain and a 16-point RSI recovery that puts it back above its 200-day (now 1.9% above, versus 1.8% below two sessions ago) with a 19.46% year. The desk's news file, refreshed September 24, holds the same items as before: a Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise from early August, a GLP-1 partnership with Eli Lilly, and an old Q2 recap re-indexed with a September date by the aggregator that pulled it. None of that is new information dated to this week, so no cause is established for a move of this size — it reads as a sharp technical reversal, not a reaction to fresh news.
$ATRC cooled off from last scan's extreme. Two sessions ago it had pushed past RSI 80 for the first time this scan tracked it; this week it closed $58.38, RSI 68.5, down from 59.96 — still 62.3% above its 200-day with a 66.66% year, but no longer the most stretched name in the cut. Its news file was last pulled September 16 and has nothing newer than late July, so the pullback itself has no established cause either.
$MRNA crossed into extreme territory this week (RSI 76.1, up from 71.9), the same move recorded in the biotech cut — its own aggregated news roundup points to September Phase 3 melanoma data and flu-shot-season demand as contributors, though that roundup blends several weeks of headlines rather than dating a single catalyst to this session. $VEEV continued climbing, RSI 61.3 to 67.2, up 7.87% on the week, though it still carries a barely positive 0.27% year despite trading 40.4% above its 200-day.
The sector fund's week reversed last scan's story. Healthcare's fund closed at $170.70, up 1.37% on the week against the S&P 500 proxy's 1.27% gain over the same window — back ahead of the broader market after trailing it two sessions ago. The fund remains up 27.26% over the past year. $ABT slid into oversold territory this week, RSI 41.7 to 36.1, now 3.2% below its 200-day with a -24.02% year. $UNH continued improving, RSI 33.5 to 39.9, just short of exiting oversold, now 6.0% above its 200-day.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-23)
- $CVS reversed hard out of capitulation. RSI 24.4 → 40.1, price $85.86 → $89.13 (+3.8% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a single-day move), reclaiming its 200-day (-1.8% → +1.9%) — no new information found to explain the size of the move.
- $ATRC pulled back from its extreme. RSI 80.7 → 68.5, price $59.96 → $58.38 (-2.6% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a single-day move) — no cause established for the pullback either.
- $MRNA crossed into extreme territory. RSI 71.9 → 76.1, price $182.11 → $198.88 (+9.2% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a single-day move) — same move recorded in the biotech cut this session.
- The sector fund flipped back ahead of the index. 7-day return: healthcare +1.37% vs. the S&P 500 proxy's +1.27%, a reversal of last scan's laggard read.
- $ABT slid into oversold. RSI 41.7 → 36.1, price $103.49 → $101.29 (-2.1% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a single-day move) — a new entrant to the oversold band.
- $UNH continued improving toward exiting oversold. RSI 33.5 → 39.9, price $371.29 → $376.59 (+1.4% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a single-day move).
- The capitulation band emptied entirely. $CVS was the cut's only occupant; it is now the cut's healthiest recent mover by RSI change.
- The oversold band held roughly steady in count but shifted composition. $SYK, $HROW, $ZTS, $UNH remain; $ABT is a new entrant; $CVS exited.
- No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-25 close. Universe unchanged at 24 tickers.
How To Read The Board
RSI is a fourteen-session stretch gauge: under 30 oversold, under 25 capitulation, over 70 near-overbought, over 75 extreme. The one-year return and the distance to the 200-day average decide whether a name is in a pullback or a downtrend, and in this cut they still contradict the RSI in places. $ISRG prints 65.4 on a long trend that remains broken (-7.52% year, 10.1% below its 200-day). $CVS's reversal moves it back onto the passing side of both tests (+19.46% year, +1.9% vs. its 200-day), even without an established cause for the size of the bounce. Five names fail the long test outright — $SYK, $HROW, $ZTS, $ABT and $ISRG, all below their 200-day with negative years. $VEEV sits in the ambiguous middle: a barely positive year while trading 40.4% above its 200-day. Everything else in the cut is above its long average with a positive year, which is consistent with the sector fund's return to outperformance this week.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYK | $272.36 | 32.1 | $288.04 | -5.4% | -1.0% | -17.4% | -26.1% | -18.0% | 🔴 Breakdown, still deep |
| HROW | $33.07 | 34.1 | $35.50 | -6.8% | 0.0% | -15.9% | -28.3% | -18.9% | 🔴 Breakdown, deepening |
| ABT | $101.29 | 36.1 | $105.01 | -3.5% | -1.3% | -11.2% | -24.0% | -3.2% | 🔴 Newly oversold, negative year |
| ZTS | $71.05 | 39.6 | $73.71 | -3.6% | -0.5% | -8.4% | -49.7% | -28.6% | 🔴 Still the cut's worst trend |
| UNH | $376.59 | 39.9 | $384.90 | -2.2% | -0.1% | -6.1% | +9.0% | +6.0% | 🟡 Improving, thin trend |
| CVS | $89.13 | 40.1 | $92.64 | -3.8% | +0.3% | -5.5% | +19.5% | +1.9% | 🟡 Reversed hard, cause unknown |
| MDT | $88.64 | 40.7 | $91.71 | -3.4% | -3.8% | -3.7% | -6.0% | -0.4% | 🟡 Flat, sitting on its 200-day |
| DXCM | $86.62 | 48.7 | $87.58 | -1.1% | -3.1% | -2.6% | +26.8% | +19.4% | 🟢 Cooled off, trend intact |
| VRTX | $526.19 | 53.3 | $526.87 | -0.1% | +3.5% | -3.9% | +37.8% | +11.5% | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact |
| LLY | $1,183.46 | 55.7 | $1,150.81 | +2.8% | +2.7% | -0.5% | +65.6% | +10.6% | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| AMGN | $414.61 | 56.4 | $404.90 | +2.4% | +7.5% | -5.8% | +52.9% | +14.5% | 🟢 Healthy, continuing climb |
| XLV | $170.70 | 56.4 | $169.22 | +0.9% | +1.4% | -1.6% | +27.3% | +9.2% | 🟢 Sector fund, back ahead of the index |
| MRK | $148.78 | 56.8 | $147.89 | +0.6% | +1.3% | -2.8% | +91.7% | +22.3% | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| JNJ | $271.22 | 56.8 | $269.64 | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +52.6% | +12.9% | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| GH | $177.25 | 59.4 | $168.63 | +5.1% | -1.2% | +3.7% | +194.5% | +45.2% | 🟢 Healthy, most extended long-term winner |
| GILD | $150.93 | 59.7 | $148.56 | +1.6% | +0.6% | +1.9% | +36.0% | +11.0% | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| BIIB | $227.60 | 62.8 | $219.25 | +3.8% | +5.6% | +3.0% | +67.8% | +17.4% | 🟢 Stabilized, healthy trend |
| ISRGE | $405.18 | 65.4 | $379.06 | +6.9% | +3.0% | +9.4% | -7.5% | -10.1% | 🔴 Bounce, long trend still broken |
| PFE | $28.67 | 66.1 | $28.06 | +2.2% | +3.7% | +1.3% | +21.5% | +8.9% | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| VEEV | $280.68 | 67.2 | $270.02 | +4.0% | +7.9% | +14.6% | +0.3% | +40.4% | 🟡 Negative-flat year despite RSI |
| ATRC | $58.38 | 68.5 | $54.96 | +6.2% | +0.5% | +21.2% | +66.7% | +62.3% | 🟠 Pulled back off last scan's extreme |
| TMO | $675.00 | 72.5 | $632.57 | +6.7% | +3.6% | +6.5% | +47.0% | +24.9% | 🟠 Near-extreme, trend intact |
| ITGR | $126.34 | 74.0 | $126.00 | +0.3% | +0.1% | +0.9% | +24.1% | +33.3% | 🟠 Extended, holding near its high |
| MRNA | $198.88 | 76.1 | $155.69 | +27.7% | +29.1% | +32.9% | +708.1% | +209.5% | 🔴 Now extreme, continuing multi-quarter run |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
None this scan. $CVS, the cut's only occupant two sessions ago, has reversed all the way to RSI 40.1.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
$SYK (32.1), $HROW (34.1), $ABT (36.1), $ZTS (39.6), $UNH (39.9) — five names, up from four two sessions ago. $ABT is the new entrant; $UNH is the only one close to passing the long test.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
- Failing the long test: $ISRG — below its 200-day with a negative year despite a 65.4 RSI.
- Reversed onto the passing side: $CVS — now above its 200-day with a positive year, though the size of the reversal has no established cause.
- Negative-flat year, above the 200-day: $MDT and $VEEV — the ambiguous middle; $VEEV is 40.4% above its long average with a barely positive year.
- Pullback, trend intact: $DXCM, $VRTX — above their 200-day with positive years.
- Healthy and working: $LLY, $AMGN, $XLV, $MRK, $JNJ, $GH, $GILD, $BIIB, $PFE.
- Near-extreme to extended: $ATRC (pulled back from last scan's extreme), $TMO, $ITGR — working trends at stretched prices.
- Extreme: $MRNA (76.1) — an extreme multi-quarter move continuing.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 1Y% | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | $376.59 | $354.51 (a prior support shelf) to $384.90 (its 20-day) | 39.9 | +9.0% | Oversold with a thin but improving long trend; the shelf is the defined risk point |
| ABT | $101.29 | $94.23 (a prior support shelf) | 36.1 | -24.0% | Newly oversold, long trend broken; the shelf is the level to watch |
| MDT | $88.64 | $87.76 (a prior support shelf), just below the price | 40.7 | -6.0% | Flat year, sitting almost exactly on its 200-day |
| XLV | $170.70 | $169.22 (its 20-day), with the fund back ahead of the index this week | 56.4 | +27.3% | The sector expression, now leading again on a 7-day basis |
| CVS | $89.13 | $78.94 (a prior support shelf), well below the price | 40.1 | +19.5% | Reversed hard out of capitulation with no established cause — a watch item until a driver surfaces |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLY, AMGN, XLV, MRK, JNJ, GH, GILD, BIIB, PFE | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Positive years, comfortably above their 200-day; $GH is the most extended long-term winner in the group |
| DXCM, VRTX, UNH | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | Pullbacks inside intact-to-thin trends, trading at or below their 20-day |
| TMO, ATRC | 🟠 | ⚠️ Don't chase | $ATRC cooled from last scan's extreme but remains highly stretched; $TMO holds near-extreme |
| ITGR | 🟠 | ⚠️ Don't chase | Extended, holding near its high |
| MRNA | 🔴 | ⚠️ Don't chase | Crossed into extreme territory this week |
| CVS, MDT, VEEV | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | $CVS's reversal has no established cause; $MDT and $VEEV carry flat-to-negative years near their long averages |
| ISRG, SYK, ZTS, HROW, ABT | 🔴 | ❌ Avoid | Below their 200-day with negative years; $ZTS remains the cut's worst at -49.66% on the year |
What To Watch Next
- $CVS reversed from capitulation to comfortably neutral in two sessions with no new information on the desk's record. Whether a driver surfaces on the next pull, or the reversal itself becomes the story, is the cut's most consequential open question.
- $ATRC pulled back from last scan's extreme with no cause established for the pullback either. Whether it stabilizes here or continues giving back the month's 21.2% gain is worth checking.
- $MRNA crossed into extreme territory alongside the same move in the biotech cut. Five names across the desk's broader coverage now sit above RSI 70 — worth a cross-cohort read on the next scan.
- The sector fund flipped back ahead of the index this week after trailing it two sessions ago. Whether that continues or the fund reverts to lagging is worth checking against the next cross-sector read.
- $ABT's move into oversold is new this scan. Whether it stabilizes there or continues deepening toward the rest of the cut's broken names is the next thing to check.
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon fields): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — healthcare.
- Cross-sector comparison (healthcare back ahead of the S&P 500 proxy this week): market-pulse.
- $MRNA September strength (Phase 3 melanoma data, presidential symposium slot, flu-shot demand): latest (pulled 2026-09-25; aggregated roundup, dates within the article are approximate).
- News checks with nothing on this week's move: latest (pulled 2026-09-24, holds only the same old Q2 earnings recap),
ATRC(pulled 2026-09-16, newest article late July). Event recordresearch/stock-events/checked for the 2026-09-23 to 2026-09-25 window: only GIS, MU, SFIX, ACN, BB, COST, JBL, LPTH and UEC earnings are filed, none in this cut. - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-23-healthcare-scan.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.