Rocket Stocks Bounced Under Their 200-Day Lines; Google's Space TPUs Are a Four-Chip Test

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Rocket Stocks Bounced Under Their 200-Day Lines; Google's Space TPUs Are a Four-Chip Test

10 tickers referenced · published Sep 25, 2026

Article published Sep 25, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

RKLB $50.84 -20.2% 30d VSAT $58.83 -17.1% 30d SPCX $146.03 -3.2% 30d PL $13.56 -15.4% 30d FLY $16.75 -17.4% 30d IRDM $43.76 -7.5% 30d GSAT $82.38 +0.6% 30d ASTS $40.66 -31.4% 30d LUNR $10.78 -22.3% 30d RDW $8.39 -22.2% 30d

As of the settled close on Friday, September 25, 2026.

The rocket stocks bounced hard this week but have not repaired their long trends. The cleanest charts in the space group belong to two takeover targets and Viasat. Rocket Lab rose 14.53% and Firefly 16.17% in the five sessions to September 25. Both still trade under their 200-day averages, and Rocket Lab is 51.03% below the high it set May 27. Iridium and Globalstar hold above their 200-day lines because Rocket Lab and Amazon have agreed to buy them. Earth-observation names are still falling on the month. Planet Labs, Google's partner on the orbital-TPU test, is down 17.63% over 30 days and 36.2% under its 200-day despite a 6.15% bounce this week. Google's first TPU satellite is reported for an October 1 launch and carries four chips on one spacecraft. It is a 2027-and-later option on launch costs and changes no company's earnings this year.

The Read

The group topped between late May and late June and bottomed in early August. Rocket Lab set its 52-week high of $151.00 on May 27 (the August 15 Rocket Lab dive). SpaceX listed June 12 at $135, ran to about $226 by late June and bottomed August 3 (the September 17 SpaceX dive). Planet fell 46% in a June flush around its earnings and a $1.5 billion at-the-market share program (the August 4 Planet dive).

This week the whole lane swung together. The space list rose 4.0% at the median on September 21 with 10 of 11 names up. It fell 3.1% on September 23 with none up, then rose 1.8% on September 24 with eight of 11 up (the daily market briefs). Friday evening's news searches returned only quote pages for these names. The week's filings and coverage hold two events, both dated September 24: Iridium's shareholder vote and Google's post. No source ties either to swings that moved nearly the whole list. The cause is unknown.

Launch: one long trend under test, one broken, one too young to grade. Rocket Lab is up 58.59% over a year, 41.37 points ahead of the S&P 500 fund, and up 757.89% over two years. Its secular trend is under test, not finished. The line is the 200-day, $81.09 on September 25. The anchored VWAP from the low sits just above at $82.22, and a death cross is still in place.

Firefly is the broken one: down 35.32% on the year, 52.53 points behind the index, and 12.4% under its 200-day even after the week's jump. SpaceX has not traded long enough to have a 200-day or a one-year return. At $148.67 it sits on its most-traded price, $147.62. That is below the $156.87 range high the September 17 dive set as its alert, and 34.11% under its post-debut high.

Connectivity: the strongest charts are deal prices. Iridium is up 179.69% on the year and 34.5% above its 200-day. Globalstar is up 139.19%, 12.6% above its 200-day and 2.32% from its high. Both are being acquired. Amazon's April agreement for Globalstar offers $90 in cash or 0.3210 Amazon shares per share, with total cash capped at 40%, and expects to close in 2027 (StockTitan's summary of Globalstar's 8-K; Globalstar's first-quarter release). Both charts follow deal terms.

Viasat is the one independent trend: up 153.54% on the year, 136.32 points ahead of the index, 21.7% above its 200-day with a golden cross, and down 4.4% on the week. No news was retrieved for Viasat, so neither the pullback nor the year's gain has a sourced cause. AST SpaceMobile (up 25.15%, 24.2% under its 200-day) and EchoStar (up 23.2%, 17.4% under) have positive years, but their long trends are under test.

Infrastructure and data: Planet leads the decline. Planet is up 45.74% on the year but has collapsed since June: 36.2% under its 200-day and down 35.61% over three months. On September 3 it beat and raised: revenue of $116.1 million, up 58% year over year, and full-year fiscal 2027 guidance of $430–441 million (Planet's release, via TheStreet and StockTitan). The stock kept falling, and the share-sale program is still a standing source of supply.

Intuitive Machines rose 12.14% on the week and is still 22.5% under its 200-day. BlackSky has done no better than the S&P 500 over a year (0.03 points ahead) and sits 15.4% under its 200-day. Redwire is the only name in this group above its 200-day, by 5.9%, with a death cross still in place.

The scans put the group at the pop. The September 25 Turnaround Watch lists Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Firefly among 40 names at least 25% off their highs whose one-week and one-month returns are both positive. That screen marks the second leg of bottom → pop → flag → breakout, and none of the three has formed a flag. The Momentum Board lists Rocket Lab, Viasat, Redwire and Globalstar among multi-year outperformers in a pullback, and puts Iridium in its tier 30–40% above the 200-day. ARK's space and defense ETF is up 18.22% on the year, about one point ahead of the S&P 500, and 1.0% above its 200-day. Owning the basket has earned about the index return.

Settled closes. Price in dollars; returns and distances in percent; "1Y vs S&P" in percentage points. Each row's date is in the As of column.

Ticker Name Price 7D 30D 1Y 1Y vs S&P vs 200-day Off 52-wk high As of Read
Launch
$SPCX SpaceX 148.67 -2.65 6.47 n/a n/a n/a -34.11 2026-09-25 Too young to grade; under the $156.87 range high
$RKLB Rocket Lab 73.95 14.53 11.74 58.59 41.37 -8.8 -51.03 2026-09-25 Long trend under test; the 200-day is the line
$FLY Firefly Aerospace 24.36 16.17 9.43 -35.32 -52.53 -12.4 -60.82 2026-09-25 Broken: down on the year, behind the index
Satellite operators & connectivity
$IRDM Iridium 48.75 4.23 3.28 179.69 162.47 34.5 -14.74 2026-09-25 Deal price: $27 cash plus Rocket Lab stock
$GSAT Globalstar 82.88 0.05 1.3 139.19 121.97 12.6 -2.32 2026-09-25 Deal price: Amazon merger pending
$VSAT Viasat 73.02 -4.4 2.11 153.54 136.32 21.7 -21.51 2026-09-25 Pullback in an intact trend
$ASTS AST SpaceMobile 61.81 5.62 3.22 25.15 7.93 -24.2 -53.82 2026-09-25 Under the 200-day; on the Turnaround Watch
$ECHO EchoStar 90.11 -3.58 5.26 23.2 5.98 -17.4 -38.8 2026-09-25 Under the 200-day
Space infrastructure & data
$PL Planet Labs 17.43 6.15 -17.63 45.74 28.52 -36.2 -66.33 2026-09-25 Collapse; still falling on the month
$LUNR Intuitive Machines 15.61 12.14 -3.1 54.55 37.34 -22.5 -66.61 2026-09-25 Sharp week, deep under the 200-day
$BKSY BlackSky 23.25 7.29 -5.79 17.25 0.03 -15.4 -56.03 2026-09-25 Index-like year, under the 200-day
$RDW Redwire 11.62 8.19 3.11 29.69 12.47 5.9 -56.38 2026-09-25 Just over the 200-day; death cross in place
Basket & benchmark
$ARKX ARK Space & Defense ETF 32.7 1.81 0.77 18.22 1 1 -13.7 2026-09-25 Index-like year, on the 200-day
$SPY S&P 500 fund 771.35 1.27 0.69 17.22 0 7.4 -1.03 2026-09-25 Benchmark

Google's TPUs in Orbit

Google is sending TPUs to orbit as a test, and the economics depend on how far launch costs fall. Google's September 24 post, "Behind Project Suncatcher, our moonshot to put AI in space" (Travis Beals, Google Research), describes the first in-orbit test of its TPUs. They fly on a prototype satellite developed in partnership with Planet, riding SpaceX's upcoming Transporter-18 rideshare, and the next milestone is in 2027. In ground proton-beam tests, Trillium TPUs survived a total ionizing radiation dose greater than a five-year mission would deliver. Google says low Earth orbit gives up to eight times more solar power than on Earth, and that future satellites would each carry dozens of TPUs in clusters. Space.com and The New York Times (September 24) put the launch on October 1.

It is a single-satellite test, not a constellation. Aakash Gupta's widely shared read (September 25) puts the payload at four Trillium TPUs on about a kilowatt of solar power, "roughly the compute of one server." He says it runs about 15 minutes at a time before it has to shed heat. He adds that the chips passed radiation testing, but the high-bandwidth memory threw errors Google calls acceptable for inference and unproven for training. KaizenInvestor, summarizing a Boston Consulting Group analysis (September 25), names four constraints: cooling, radiation, connectivity and in-orbit maintenance. BCG gives each a low-to-medium chance of commercial maturity within five to ten years.

Gupta's cost read cites Google's own paper. Falcon 9 costs about $2,500–3,000 per kilogram today, and orbital compute only works below $200 per kilogram. Google's model reaches that level in the mid-2030s, and only if Starship keeps flying and keeps getting cheaper.

Who touches it. SpaceX flies the satellite and owns the cost curve the idea depends on, so among listed companies it has the most leverage to orbital compute. One rideshare slot is immaterial to its revenue. Planet works with Google on the satellite. It also has its own satellites on Transporter-18, Tanager-2 and 18 SuperDoves, per KaizenInvestor's summary of Planet's September 3 release.

Planet rose 7.57% on September 24, the day of Google's post. Eight of 11 space names rose that session, though, and no source ties Planet's move to the post. Alphabet closed at $343.92 on September 25, up 39.92% on the year and 1.7% above its 200-day; a four-chip test does not show up in that tape. Rocket Lab has no role in anything filed or reported about the project.

Rocket Lab and Iridium

Iridium's holders approved the sale to Rocket Lab on September 24. The deal now waits on regulators for a mid-2027 close. Iridium's 8-K reports 85,862,105 shares for adopting the merger agreement, 318,415 against and 67,862 abstaining. Holders of 81.38% of the 105,981,552 outstanding shares were present or represented. The companies expect to close in mid-2027, subject to remaining conditions including regulatory approvals. The Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period had already lapsed, and the S-4 and FCC applications were filed August 13 (the August 15 Rocket Lab dive).

Iridium's chart is the deal. Coverage summarizes the June 28 terms as $27 in cash plus Rocket Lab stock for each Iridium share, about $54 at signing (r/stocks, July 11; TipRanks repeated the $54 on September 24). Rocket Lab traded near $100 in the deal's first week (r/ValueInvesting, July 5) and closed at $73.95 on September 25. If the exchange ratio is fixed, the stock half is now worth less than at signing. The ratio and any price collar were not disclosed in the sources available for this note, so no live deal value is stated here. Iridium at $48.75 moves with that formula. Its one-year gain is the takeover premium plus a slice of Rocket Lab, not independent strength.

For Rocket Lab, the deal adds a working constellation and a large cash call. Iridium brings about 2.5 million subscribers and about $872 million of 2025 revenue (r/ValueInvesting's summary). Rocket Lab is still burning cash. Operating cash flow was −$84.1 million in the June quarter, and cash reached $2.13 billion at June 30 after about $1.06 billion of equity financing (quarterly filings, via the August 15 dive). The available sources do not say how the cash half will be funded. The tape has not voted yet: the stock needs to close back above $81–82, the 200-day and the anchored VWAP from the low, before the bounce becomes a trend.

One unconfirmed launch-supply report is worth tracking. TheBuildout (September 22, sourcing an X post) reports that SpaceX has stopped taking new external Falcon 9 bookings to focus on Starship. It adds that Falcon 9 list prices have risen 19% over five years to about $74 million. On its September 3 call, Planet's management described high demand for SpaceX and slightly rising prices for larger payloads (KaizenInvestor's call notes). If SpaceX confirms it, medium-lift launch supply tightens. That is the market Firefly and Rocket Lab's Neutron are built for; Neutron had not flown as of mid-August coverage. No filing confirms the report.

What to Watch

  • October 1 — Transporter-18 (date per Space.com and The New York Times; launch dates slip). The milestone is deployment and first telemetry from Google's prototype. Planet's Tanager-2 and SuperDoves ride the same mission.
  • SpaceX lock-up releases. Up to 328.4 million shares each on October 9 and October 24. Up to 1.3 billion two sessions after the third-quarter report, which is calendared for November 3. Up to 797.6 million on December 8 (prospectus schedule, per the September 17 SpaceX dive).
  • Scheduled reports: Iridium October 22; Alphabet October 28; SpaceX November 3; Redwire November 4; Viasat, Globalstar, EchoStar and BlackSky November 5; Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile November 9; Intuitive Machines November 10 (estimated); Firefly November 11; Planet December 9 (estimated).
  • Rocket Lab at $81–82. A close above the 200-day and the anchored VWAP from the low, then a flag, would start a trend. A close under the $68.29 volume shelf ends the bounce.
  • 2027: the Iridium close in mid-2027, the Globalstar–Amazon close, and Google's next Suncatcher milestone.

Desk Call

Ticker Stance Entry Invalidation Review by
$RKLB Watch Close above both the 200-day (about $81.09 on 2026-09-25) and the anchored VWAP from the low ($82.22), then a flag that holds above them Close below the $68.29 volume shelf; after an entry, a close back under the 200-day 2026-11-20
$VSAT Watch Pullback in an intact trend: a close back above the 50-day (about $75.29 on 2026-09-25) Close below the $69.33 support shelf 2026-11-20
$SPCX Watch Confirmed close above the $156.87 range high Close below the $142.58 support shelf 2026-12-18
$PL Pass None; revisit on a close above the 50-day (about $20.40 on 2026-09-25) that holds a higher low above the $16.53 shelf The pass is wrong on a close above the 50-day 2026-12-18
$FLY Pass None; down on the year and under the 200-day (about $27.79 on 2026-09-25); revisit after the November 11 report The pass is wrong on a close above the 200-day 2026-11-27
$IRDM Pass None; a merger-arbitrage price set by $27 cash plus Rocket Lab stock, not a trend The pass is wrong only if the deal breaks or is re-cut 2026-11-20
$GSAT Pass None; priced off Amazon's pending merger terms The pass is wrong only if the deal breaks or is re-cut 2026-11-20

Sources