Rocket Stocks Gave Back Their September Bounce: Still Repairing, Not Taking Off

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Rocket Stocks Gave Back Their September Bounce: Still Repairing, Not Taking Off

10 tickers referenced · published Sep 30, 2026

Article published Sep 30, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

RKLB $50.84 -20.2% 30d SPCX $146.03 -3.2% 30d FLY $16.75 -17.4% 30d VSAT $58.83 -17.1% 30d ASTS $40.66 -31.4% 30d ECHO $85.37 -8.7% 30d IRDM $43.76 -7.5% 30d GSAT $82.38 +0.6% 30d PL $13.56 -15.4% 30d LUNR $10.78 -22.3% 30d

As of the settled close on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Written September 30.

On today's tape the rocket trade is repairing, not taking off. The late-September pop faded before it formed a flag. Every space name that is not being acquired trades below its 200-day average. Only Iridium and Globalstar are above it, and both trade on takeover terms. On September 29 the space list fell 2.3% at the median with 3 of 11 names up, per the desk's daily market brief. The brief ranked it the day's weakest lane, fading from a positive 30-day read.

Rocket Lab is the line to watch, and nothing has fired either way. It closed at $69.70, down 3.45% on the day and 14.2% under its 200-day. It sits just above the $68.29 volume shelf that invalidates the September 25 watch. The long trend is under test, not finished: up 48.27% over one year, 33.12 points ahead of the S&P 500 fund, and up 616.34% over two years. The desk's summaries grade its thesis state as broken, and a death cross is still in place. The trigger is unchanged: a close above $82.22. The 200-day ($81.25) and the anchored VWAP from the low ($82.14) sit just beneath it. A flag that holds above those lines would start a trend. A close under $68.29 ends the bounce, and the next shelf below is $63.56.

What changed since September 25:

  • The group gave back the week. Rocket Lab is down 3.17% and Firefly 2.10% over the five sessions to September 29, after rising 14.53% and 16.17% in the five sessions to September 25.
  • Viasat was the one independent uptrend. It broke its setup shelf: it closed at $69.09, below the $69.33 invalidation, and the September 25 watch is void. Its long trend has not broken. It is still 14.5% above its 200-day and up 143.19% on the year.
  • Redwire slipped under its 200-day. It was 5.9% above on September 25 and 2.5% below on September 29.
  • ARK's space and defense ETF slipped under its 200-day. It was 1.0% above on September 25 and is 1.5% below now.

For a trend-hold, ETF-core reader, the fund route is not ready. ARK's space and defense fund ($ARKX) is up 13.43% on the year, behind the S&P 500 fund's 15.15%. It trades 1.5% under its 200-day with a death cross. It has based for about 16 weeks under a $35.85 pivot. The first repair signal is a close back above the 200-day, about $32.41 on September 29. The breakout is a close through $35.85. The desk tracks no other normal space fund, and the leveraged single-stock products on this theme are excluded.

The tape

Settled closes. Price in dollars; returns and distances in percent; "1Y vs S&P" in percentage points.

Ticker Name Price 1D 7D 30D 1Y 1Y vs S&P vs 200-day Off 52-wk high As of Read
Launch
$RKLB Rocket Lab 69.68 -0.03 -0.9 9.01 45.44 30.96 -14.3 -53.85 2026-09-30 Long trend under test; on its volume shelf
$SPCX SpaceX 150.88 1.1 1.7 5 n/a n/a n/a -33.13 2026-09-30 Too young to grade; under the $156.87 range high
$FLY Firefly Aerospace 23.15 1.27 5.71 9.61 -21.04 -35.52 -16.8 -62.76 2026-09-30 Broken: down on the year, behind the index
Connectivity
$VSAT Viasat 70.38 1.87 -4.48 4.62 140.2 125.73 16.3 -24.35 2026-09-30 Setup shelf broken; long trend intact
$ASTS AST SpaceMobile 58.86 -0.91 -1.87 -0.41 19.93 5.45 -27.5 -56.03 2026-09-30 Deep under the 200-day
$ECHO EchoStar 89.41 -0.53 -3.57 3.44 17.09 2.61 -17.9 -39.28 2026-09-30 Under the 200-day
$IRDM Iridium 47.9 -0.08 -0.83 1.96 174.34 159.86 30.6 -16.23 2026-09-30 Deal price: $27 cash plus Rocket Lab stock
$GSAT Globalstar 82.89 0.36 0.47 1.64 127.78 113.3 12.3 -2.31 2026-09-30 Deal price: Amazon merger pending
Infrastructure & data
$PL Planet Labs 16.39 0.06 0.06 -17.43 26.27 11.79 -40.1 -68.33 2026-09-30 Still falling on the month
$LUNR Intuitive Machines 14.24 -2.13 -6.56 -7.29 35.36 20.88 -29.5 -69.54 2026-09-30 Last week's jump fully reversed
$RDW Redwire 10.44 -2.7 -7.36 -2.43 16.13 1.65 -5.2 -60.81 2026-09-30 Slipped back under the 200-day
$BKSY BlackSky 21.31 -2.65 -4.22 -7.75 5.76 -8.72 -22.6 -59.7 2026-09-30 Behind the index, under the 200-day
Fund & benchmark
$ARKX ARK Space & Defense ETF 31.9 -0.06 -2.36 -1.48 11.73 -2.74 -1.6 -15.81 2026-09-30 Behind the index, under the 200-day
$SPY S&P 500 fund 762.63 -0.21 -0.67 -0.58 14.48 0 6 -2.15 2026-09-30 Benchmark

Testing "about to take off"

The bullish case is real, but it is a long-trend case, not a breakout. Several names carry large multi-year gains beneath the damage. As of September 29, Rocket Lab is up 616.34% over two years, Planet 634.53% and EchoStar 262.17%. Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines (up 41.81% on the year), Planet (28.07%), AST SpaceMobile (21.62%), EchoStar (22.05%) and Redwire (20.16%) are all positive on the year and all below their 200-day lines. That is the definition of a long trend under test. A deep pullback inside these trends is the kind of base a bottom → pop → flag → breakout entry needs. On September 25, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Firefly were at the pop stage of that sequence.

The pop did not become a flag. A flag holds most of the pop on light volume. This group instead gave the week back. Intuitive Machines fell 10.41% over five sessions and is 27.9% under its 200-day. Redwire fell 8.76% and AST SpaceMobile 6.74%, on 1.67 times its usual volume on September 29. Planet is down 18.02% over 30 days and 40.1% under its 200-day, and the desk's summaries also grade its thesis state as broken. Rocket Lab is holding up better than the rest. It sits on its 50-day ($69.66) and its most-traded price, with volume at its average. That is a stock testing support, not one breaking down.

Two names are genuinely broken, and drawdown depth is not the reason. Firefly is down 38.15% on the year, 53.30 points behind the index, and 17.8% under its 200-day. BlackSky is up 9.61% on the year, 5.53 points behind the index, and 20.5% under its 200-day. A negative one-year gap to the index is what separates broken from repairing.

The one-day slide has no sourced cause. The desk last pulled news for Rocket Lab, Firefly, Intuitive Machines, AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX on September 26, so none was pulled for the September 29 move. The Viasat and Redwire news pulls failed. No company event on file for any space name falls between September 26 and 30. Coverage captured over those days does not tie to the drop. The Rocket Lab items in TheBuildout's feed date to September 23: the kickoff of its $397 million Space Force SB-AMTI contract, which includes a first Neutron mission assignment, and a Peter Beck interview. Drone-defense also fell that day, down 1.2% with 3 of 20 names up. The cause is unknown.

SpaceX and Starship

SpaceX was the only launch name up on September 29, rising 2.59% to $149.24. It is still below the $156.87 range high set as its alert, and its base pivot sits at $158.13. It holds above the $142.58 support shelf, and it has not traded long enough to have a 200-day or a one-year return. Two captures bracket the day. A September 28 post relays a SpaceX statement that a Starship would not go to orbit after one engine failed in space. MarketWatch on September 29 reports Citi's view that the recent Starship launch moves SpaceX toward a long-run $900 stock. Neither source ties to the day's price move.

The supply argument from last week is unchanged and still unconfirmed. TheBuildout reported on September 22, sourcing an X post, that SpaceX stopped taking new external Falcon 9 bookings. If true, that tightens medium-lift supply, the market Rocket Lab's Neutron and Firefly are built for. No filing confirms it, and Neutron has not flown in any source on file.

What to watch

  • October 1 — Transporter-18. It is scheduled to carry Google's prototype TPU satellite and Planet's Tanager-2 and SuperDoves, per Space.com and The New York Times on September 24. Launch dates slip.
  • SpaceX lock-up releases are scheduled for October 9 and October 24, per the September 17 SpaceX dive.
  • Scheduled reports: Iridium October 22; SpaceX November 3; Redwire November 4; Viasat November 5; Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile November 9; Intuitive Machines November 10; Firefly November 11.
  • Rocket Lab: a close above $82.22 with a flag above the 200-day starts a trend. A close under $68.29 ends the bounce.
  • ARK's fund: a close back above its 200-day (about $32.41 on September 29), then through $35.85.

Desk Call

Ticker Stance Entry Invalidation Review by
$ARKX Watch (new) After a close back above the 200-day (about $32.41 on 2026-09-29), a close through the $35.85 base pivot A close below the $30.47 value-area low 2026-12-15
$RKLB Watch (the September 25 call stands) Close above $82.22, which clears the anchored VWAP from the low ($82.14) and the 200-day (about $81.25 on 2026-09-29), then a flag that holds above them Close below the $68.29 volume shelf; after an entry, a close back under the 200-day 2026-11-20
$VSAT Watch, invalidated The September 25 setup is void: a close at $69.09 on September 29, below the $69.33 shelf Fired September 29 Closed

Sources