A physics-down supply-chain read that names the actual choke point inside the transformer shortage: lead times, manufacturer counts and import shares come from the National Laboratory of the Rockies' May 2026 gap analysis for large power transformers, per the author's sourcing reply, and the full write-up (Frontier Map, October 1: frontiermap.substack.com/p/transformer-bushings-the-paper-core) says the first US-made 765 kV units are due in early 2028. For the AI power thesis it sets a dated floor on how fast high-voltage interconnection can loosen, regardless of how many transformer plants are announced.
Inside a large power transformer, the longest-lead-time component, more than 130 weeks for a 345 kV unit, is the bushing: the insulated column that carries the conductor out through the tank lid so the transformer can be tied to the grid. Before the pandemic, a 230 kV bushing
A physics-down supply-chain read that names the actual choke point inside the transformer shortage: lead times, manufacturer counts and import shares come from the National Laboratory of the Rockies' May 2026 gap analysis for large power transformers, per the author's sourcing reply, and the full write-up (Frontier Map, October 1: frontiermap.substack.com/p/transformer-bushings-the-paper-core) says the first US-made 765 kV units are due in early 2028. For the AI power thesis it sets a dated floor on how fast high-voltage interconnection can loosen, regardless of how many transformer plants are announced.
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