Market Signal

What fired. On the settled October 2 close, three open watch calls printed through the levels they were waiting on. All figures below are from the desk's settled summaries for that session (Schwab close).

• TSMC ($TSM) closed at $472.78, above the $461.47 pivot set in the September 6 entry map. This is a breakout inside an intact long trend: up 64.1% over a year with 49.1 points of alpha over the S&P 500, 22.1% above its 200-day average and 1.3% off its 52-week high. The desk's convergence board carries it at three bells.
• SpaceX ($SPCX) closed at $158.96, up 7.35% on the day, over the $156.87 range high that the September 17 SpaceX dive set as its alert. The stock listed June 12, so there is no 200-day average or one-year return to grade it on.
• MKS ($MKSI) closed at $279.15, 2.6% above its live 200-day average with RSI 58. The August 28 vertical's entry asked for a 200-day reclaim with RSI back above 45, so the stated condition is met. The long trend is strong (up 104.5% over a year, 89.4 points of alpha), but the stock is still 37.6% under its 52-week high. The convergence board raised it to three bells the same night.

The verdict: price legs met, entries not admitted. All three are recorded in-zone, and all three conversions into the paper conviction book were declined with a written reason.

• TSMC. The call asked for a volume-supported breakout plus a fresh capacity, demand and margin review. Friday's volume was average (0.99 times normal), RSI is 71.5, and the company's third-quarter report is scheduled for October 15.
• SpaceX. The dive defined confirmation as a close above the range high with the lock-up supply already behind it. Releases are still scheduled for October 9, October 24, the sessions after the November 3 report, and December 8. One close 1.3% over the line is an alert, not that confirmation.
• MKS. It sits only 1.2% above its 50-day after a 7.03% week, and the call's own September 25 review date has passed. A flag that holds the 200-day, plus a refreshed call, comes before any entry.

The book's unlaned slots were also full, so its own cap blocked the TSMC and SpaceX conversions.

What moved, cause. No dated cause covers any of the three moves:

• SpaceX. News was last pulled September 26, so it was not pulled for Friday's move. The stock-events record was checked. The only same-week capture is CNBC's October 1 report that SpaceX launched Google's TPUs on Planet satellites. That report came out before Friday's session and is not a receipt for the move.
• TSMC and MKS. Both were pulled October 3 and carry nothing on the move.

Noted, not actioned. Three other wires moved on the same pass, and none of them points toward risk-on.

• The gold miners-versus-metal gauge went from miners-lagging to neutral because both fell together. Miners (GDX) are down 10.09% over 30 days and 3.6% under their 200-day. Gold (GLD) is down 5.62% over 30 days and 8.7% under its 200-day.
• The buffer-ETF saturation gauge went to neutral. None of the five buffer funds is saturated, so the melt-up condition is not present.
• The volatility gate stepped from normal to calm, with the VIX at 15.31 on October 2. The complacency streak is not active (zero weeks under 15), so there is no fire-sale or complacency playbook to run.

What to watch.

• TSMC: a close holding $461.47 on above-average volume into the October 15 report. A settled close back under it on ordinary volume returns the call to watch. The call's invalidation is the 200-day.
• SpaceX: the October 9 lock-up release, and whether price holds the $156.87 line through it. A close below the $142.58 support shelf ends the setup.
• MKS: a weekly close that holds above the 200-day.

Sources

• September 6 entry map — 2026-09-06-campaign-01-entry-map
• September 25 space sector note — 2026-09-25-rocket-sector-space-tpus; September 17 SpaceX dive — 2026-09-17-spcx-deep-dive
• August 28 AI compute vertical — 2026-08-28-vertical-ai-compute-power-supply-layer-split
• Settled October 2 summaries (Schwab) — ai-infra (TSM), space.json (SPCX), ai-bottlenecks.json (MKSI), etf-ideas.json (GDX, GLD), market backdrop-signals.json (gauges)
• Volatility gate — vix-gate (October 2)
• Convergence board — convergence-alarms
• News receipts — latest (fetched 2026-09-26), latest and latest (fetched 2026-10-03)
• CNBC, "SpaceX launches Google AI chips into orbit in push toward space-based data centers," October 1, 2026 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/spacex-to-launch-google-ai-chips-to-orbit-with-planet-labs-satellites.html