Washout Turn Scan

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Washout Turn Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 32 rows · screens, not recommendations data as of2026-10-16min depth25max vs sma2005min pace5min rsi45source cliresearch/market-engine/cli/synthesis/washout-scan.ts

26 washout turns across 146 watchlists — deep-drawdown names (≥25% off the 52wk high, under 5% vs SMA200) with both trailing windows positive. Watch class, not an entry pool: the pop is leg 2 of bottom → pop → flag → breakout.

Read as of Friday's October 16 close. The list shrank from 36 names on October 9 to 26, and the cast changed. Last week's turns were power producers, software and infrastructure names; this week's are consumer brands, animal health, an Israeli defense name and four hedging products. Ten names carried over, 16 are new and 26 left. This is not a broad-bounce flood: the daily list ran 35 names on Monday, 22 Tuesday, 20 Wednesday, 31 Thursday and 26 Friday. The market behind it was weak and rotating, not rising: over seven days SPY lost 1.97%, QQQ 5.52% and the small-cap fund IWM 3.05%, while the staples fund XLP gained 5.02% and the health-care fund XLV 3.45%.

New Entrants vs the October 9 Scan (16)

  • Consumer brands and retail (7): BRBR (7D +10.3%), NKE (+7.0%), AS, CASY, DECK, LOW and PTON. BRBR, NKE, DECK and LOW sit 30% to 73% below their 52-week highs.
  • Animal health (2): IDXX (7D +8.2%) and PAHC, both on the livestock-disease watch group.
  • Defense and power (2): ESLT (7D +15.2%, the largest move among non-hedge names; secular pedigree) and KEN (secular pedigree).
  • Hedging products (2): VIXY and DUST, joining the holdovers LABD and TZA (see the caveats below).
  • Software (1): INTU (7D +7.4%), the only software name on the list, against a week when the software fund IGV fell 7.39%.
  • Materials and infrastructure (2): CE and BIPC.

Four are first-time appearances for the week: BRBR, VIXY, LOW and CE. ESLT, IDXX, INTU, NKE, KEN and BIPC first appeared Thursday. AS, PAHC, CASY, DECK, PTON and DUST have been on and off the daily list since Monday through Wednesday, so they are repeat turns, not surprises. The cause of any of these moves was not checked for this write-up.

Holdovers, Graduations and Dropouts

Holdovers (10): WING, JBS, PINS, AHG, ISRG, ZTS, ADMA, TZA, MAZE and LABD. Every one closed the week nearer its 200-day average than on October 9: WING from 29.4% below to 22.6% below, ZTS from 22.9% to 17.2%, AHG from 17.9% to 11.4%, ISRG from 4.4% to 2.9%, ADMA from 10.1% to 5.5%, and PINS from 1.5% above to 4.4% above.

Graduations: none. No name repaired past the 5%-above-the-200-day hand-off with its turn intact. PINS is the closest (4.4% above, and the only row on the list whose 50-day average has crossed above its 200-day), but its one-year change is -32.8%, so it would not qualify for the steady-climber pool. MNDY crossed to 5.6% above its 200-day but left on the pace test (30D -3.92%).

Broke back down (15 of the 26 dropouts), 7D losses over 5%: CEG (-8.96%) and VST (-5.86%), last week's two biggest turns; the technology- and infrastructure-linked turns FN (-25.25%), AAON (-14.43%), MYRG (-10.1%), PRIM (-12.43%), UI (-8.59%) and PSIX (-7.99%); SHLS (-17.96%), CLFD (-13.35%), NTLA (-12.62%), KLAR (-7.4%); and three research-only foreign listings (322310.KS, 6315.T, 6146.T). Faded flat (11): ONON, RDDT, PDD, TAC, BABA and UNG slipped 0% to 3.2% on the week; BAH and MNDY still gained on 7D but have a negative 30D; RBLX, COCO and CHKP are positive on both windows but under the 5% pace floor.

Lane Clusters and the Rotation Map

The sector rotation map for October 16 carries four early-turn lists (accelerating, breadth unconfirmed) and two emerging lists. Two of the early-turn lanes show up directly in the washout list, and in both the map's named leaders are washout names (IDXX and WING in Livestock Disease, BRBR in Cultural Thesis), so those turns are led by a few stocks rather than a broad bid.

  • Animal health and livestock (5 of 26: IDXX, ZTS, PAHC, JBS, WING). Livestock Disease is an early-turn list on the map (acceleration +3.1, 45% of names up, led by BLMN, IDXX and WING) and also a turning laggard (30D relative strength -2.6, 7D +4.7). IDXX and WING are the map's named leaders. The other three sit 6% to 17% under their 200-days: PAHC -5.9%, JBS -8.2%, ZTS -17.2%.
  • Consumer brands and retail (7 to 8 of 26). Retail ranks third of 125 lists on 30-day relative strength (+5.1 points) with only 18% of names strong-up; Consumer Staples is emerging (60% up); Cultural Thesis is early-turn (13% up, led by BRBR, SBUX and CROX); Defensive is early-turn (47% up, led by VZ, SBUX and WMT). BRBR and NKE are the washout list's cultural-thesis names. Breadth is the weak point, so this is a probe, not a confirmed turn.
  • Defense (ESLT). ESLT sits on the drone-defense list; the related Defense Contractors list is on the map's turning-laggards list (30D relative strength -3.8, 7D +3.5). ESLT is the one name with a long record to match the turn: a one-year change of +53.7% and alpha of +38.1 points, 3.2% under its 200-day. That reads as a pullback inside an intact trend.
  • Materials (CE). Macro Commodities is a turning laggard on the map; CE is its washout-list name.

Long-horizon check. Most of the 26 are broken on the one-year fields (negative one-year change and negative alpha), which is what the washout filter selects. The clear exceptions, with one-year gains above 15%, are ESLT (+53.7%), KEN (+29.8%), CASY (+22.8%) and CE (+18.8%). BRBR and INTU carry broken-thesis flags in the summaries. Names closest to the line that matters, the 200-day:

Stock Price 200-day vs 200-day % 20-day As of
PINS 21.91 20.98 4.4 20.04 2026-10-16
PTON 5.22 5.28 -1.2 5 2026-10-16
ISRGE 426.7 439.63 -2.9 411.16 2026-10-16
ESLT 755.43 780.18 -3.2 705.23 2026-10-16
IDXX 560.36 579.67 -3.3 523.67 2026-10-16
ADMA 10.68 11.31 -5.5 10.05 2026-10-16

The Honest Caveats

  • Hedging products are not washout recoveries. LABD (3x inverse biotech), TZA (3x inverse small caps) and DUST (2x inverse gold miners) are leveraged inverse funds, and VIXY holds short-dated volatility futures; all four decay over time, turn violently both ways, and rise when their underlyings fall (XBI lost 6.15% and IWM 3.05% over seven days). They are left out of the lane reads and the closest-to-the-line table, and none is a candidate.
  • Fast arrivals. AHG (RSI 70, 30D +81.2%, price $1.35) is a lottery-type microcap profile and fails on business quality; WING sits at RSI 70 after a 30D gain of 30.3%.
  • Some of the long records are poor. BRBR is 73.0% below its high and INTU 52.8% below; a one-week pop does not change a one-year change of -71.6% or -49.7%.
  • A quiet-ish list, not a conviction signal. Twenty-six names in a week when QQQ fell 5.52% is a selective result, not a flood; the cleanest evidence is the ten holdovers all edging toward their 200-days.

What To Watch Next

  • A close back below the 20-day average turns a pop into a failed pop, the way last week's leaders CEG and VST reversed this week; the 20-day column in the table above is the line for PINS, PTON, ISRG, ESLT, IDXX and ADMA.
  • The hand-off to the climber ladder starts when a name holds more than 5% above its 200-day with 30D still positive; PINS is the nearest.
  • Rotation-map confirmation: the early-turn lanes (Cultural Thesis, Food Security, Livestock Disease, Defensive) graduate to emerging only when breadth rises; Cultural Thesis at 13% and Food Security at 9% of names up are the thinnest.

Washout Turns — Broken Long-Term, Turning Short-Term

Ticker Price 7D 30D 3M vs SMA200 RSI From High Regime Notes
LABD $8.96 +19.1% +16.2% +9.4% -30.6% 63 -73.3% downtrend death cross intact
ESLT $755.43 +15.2% +2.3% +1.9% -3.2% 63 -25.6% pullback secular pedigree; death cross intact
BRBR $9.43 +10.3% +3.7% -22.2% -33.0% 62 -73.0% collapse death cross intact
TZA $51.51 +9.4% +14.7% +26.8% +0.8% 68 -46.0% pullback death cross intact
VIXY $17.73 +8.8% +0.3% -18.1% -26.5% 59 -55.3% downtrend death cross intact
IDXX $560.36 +8.2% +9.1% -1.3% -3.3% 66 -27.2% downtrend death cross intact
AHG $1.35 +8.0% +81.2% -10.6% -11.4% 70 -46.0% downtrend death cross intact
WING $131.72 +7.7% +30.3% -7.5% -22.6% 70 -56.5% downtrend death cross intact
INTU $325.15 +7.4% +2.2% +11.7% -13.4% 61 -52.8% downtrend death cross intact
NKE $37.13 +7.0% +3.8% -15.2% -21.7% 58 -47.3% collapse death cross intact
AS $30.02 +6.7% +10.7% -17.6% -12.1% 62 -29.8% downtrend death cross intact
CASY $689.22 +6.7% +17.0% -19.8% -6.4% 64 -25.7% pullback secular pedigree; death cross intact
LOW $197.38 +6.1% +1.7% -5.4% -13.7% 58 -32.6% downtrend death cross intact
ZTS $79.38 +6.1% +8.7% +3.7% -17.2% 69 -46.5% downtrend death cross intact
KEN $63.44 +6.0% +1.2% -3.8% -14.4% 51 -33.9% downtrend secular pedigree; death cross intact
CE $47.49 +5.5% +1.3% +3.9% -7.6% 59 -32.8% basing death cross intact
DECK $85.71 +3.4% +9.9% -19.5% -14.6% 59 -29.9% downtrend death cross intact
ADMA $10.68 +3.1% +20.0% +22.6% -5.5% 66 -47.8% downtrend secular pedigree; death cross intact
DUST $39.41 +2.5% +7.5% -43.6% -20.4% 51 -69.2% downtrend death cross intact
PINS $21.91 +2.4% +17.5% -5.6% +4.4% 60 -38.1% pullback —
PTON $5.22 +1.9% +7.8% -14.7% -1.2% 55 -36.3% downtrend death cross intact
MAZE $27.53 +1.6% +15.1% -2.1% -14.7% 56 -48.7% downtrend death cross intact
PAHC $38.82 +1.4% +10.0% +16.5% -5.9% 63 -35.4% basing secular pedigree; death cross intact
BIPC $37.74 +1.0% +5.7% -7.0% -8.7% 57 -27.0% downtrend death cross intact
ISRGE $426.70 +0.7% +11.6% +23.5% -2.9% 65 -29.3% downtrend death cross intact
JBS $13.03 +0.4% +6.6% +9.4% -8.2% 60 -30.1% downtrend death cross intact

Generated 2026-10-16T22:28:38.442Z — internal price truth: all rows computed from the desk's benchmark-anchored watchlist summaries.

7 events

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