Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The narrow event study tests direct presidential statements against ticker moves, accounting for earnings, analyst and sector confounds.

Why now

Retire the general policy watch as a campaign. Direct statements remain research inputs; each concrete economic claim must earn its own case.

In scope

The narrow event study tests direct presidential statements against ticker moves, accounting for earnings, analyst and sector confounds.

Out of scope

No current campaign-level investment recommendation · No reconstruction of past returns or reassignment of original calls

Expected horizon

A future policy event needs its own bounded window.

What supports it

Require a dated direct primary post or transcript and a return path that survives confound checks; repeated secondary mentions do not validate attribution.

What would break it

The closure is a research-priority decision, not a new market falsification verdict. Original evidence gaps and outcomes remain as recorded.

Next review On condition · A direct primary policy action with a specific economic transmission and a response surviving earnings and sector confounds would justify a successor.

Closed 2026-09-06 · Retire the general policy watch as a campaign. Direct statements remain research inputs; each concrete economic claim must earn its own case.