Article published Apr 13, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
Date: 2026-04-13 Source: Theo Loveday (conversation) Type: External thesis testing Verdict: Mixed — 1 confirmed, 1 rejected (for now), 1 too early
Thesis 1: "World capital is coming back to US markets, especially large caps"
Verdict: NOT CONFIRMED — international is outperforming, dollar weakening
The Data
| ETF | What | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | vs SMA20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | US large cap | +3.2% | +3.3% | -1.4% | 62 | +3.6% |
| QQQ | US tech | +3.8% | +3.6% | -1.8% | 62 | +4.2% |
| DIA | US industrial | +2.7% | +3.1% | -2.1% | 59 | +3.1% |
| EFA | Intl developed | +3.8% | +6.5% | +3.8% | 62 | +5.0% |
| EEM | Emerging mkts | +5.8% | +7.3% | +5.9% | 62 | +5.8% |
| UUP | US dollar | -1.3% | -1.7% | +0.3% | 43 | -1.0% |
Analysis
The 7-day bounce is roughly equal across US and international — everyone rallied on the Trump ceasefire hint that moved $3.8T in 9 minutes. But on 30D and 3M timeframes, international is decisively beating US: EEM +7.3% vs SPY +3.3% (30D), EFA +3.8% vs SPY -1.4% (3M).
The dollar is weakening (UUP below SMA20, RSI 43), which helps international, not US. Capital repatriation would show as dollar strength + US outperformance. We're seeing the opposite.
What Would Confirm This Thesis
- Dollar strengthening (UUP reclaiming SMA20, RSI >50)
- US outperforming EFA/EEM on 30D rolling basis
- Fund flow data showing net inflows to US large cap ETFs
- Rotation from EM/international to SPY/QQQ visible in volume
Counter-Thesis
The Iran war / Hormuz situation creates "flight to safety" headlines, but actual flows are going to EM and developed international. The US bounce is headline-driven (ceasefire tweets), not structural capital repatriation. Energy shock compresses US tech multiples (higher compute costs) while benefiting commodity-heavy international markets.
Watch For
- If ceasefire materializes: US tech could rip as energy costs normalize — THAT could trigger the repatriation
- Monitor UUP weekly — dollar direction is the leading indicator
- Compare SPY vs EFA relative performance on 2-week rolling basis
Conviction: LOW — thesis may become correct on ceasefire, but data doesn't support it today.
Thesis 2: Canadian Oil & Gas — Theo's Picks
Verdict: CONFIRMED — massively outperforming, direct Hormuz beneficiaries
The Data
| Ticker | Company | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH.TO | Athabasca Oil | C$11.09 | -0.4% | +22.4% | +59.6% | 64 |
| TVE.TO | Tamarack Valley | C$11.38 | -1.6% | +6.2% | +42.6% | 58 |
| WCP.TO | Whitecap Resources | C$14.74 | -2.7% | +3.4% | +30.6% | 53 |
| BTE.TO | Baytex Energy | C$5.87 | -3.2% | +6.2% | +27.1% | 55 |
| GTE | Gran Tierra Energy | $7.92 | -11.5% | -3.5% | +67.8% | 50 |
| XLE | US energy benchmark | $57.51 | -3.5% | -0.9% | +21.7% | 43 |
| EWC | Canada ETF benchmark | $57.13 | +2.4% | +3.8% | +3.7% | 62 |
Analysis
Canadian O&G is massively outperforming the US energy sector (XLE +21.7% 3M vs ATH +59.6%, GTE +67.8%). These are direct Hormuz beneficiaries — Canadian heavy oil (especially oil sands producers like ATH and BTE) becomes significantly more valuable when Gulf supply is disrupted. Non-OPEC, non-Gulf production is at a structural premium.
ATH is the standout — +22% in a single month. GTE has the best 3M performance (+67.8%) but the worst 7D (-11.5%), suggesting it's the most volatile / momentum-driven of the group.
The 7D pullback across the board (-0.4% to -11.5%) correlates with the Trump ceasefire hint — peace = reversal risk for this trade. But RSIs are healthy (50-64 range), not overbought, which means there's room to run if the blockade persists.
Eric Nuttall's NNRG Fund
Theo mentioned NNRG, managed by Eric Nuttall of Ninepoint Partners — widely considered the top Canadian energy analyst. NNRG is not publicly traded on Yahoo Finance (likely a Ninepoint mutual fund / closed-end fund). However, Nuttall's picks are publicly discussed and the underlying names (ATH, BTE, WCP, TVE) are all trackable.
Risk Matrix
| Scenario | Impact | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Hormuz remains blocked | +20-40% upside, ATH/GTE lead | Medium-High |
| Ceasefire / de-escalation | -15-25% drawdown, GTE most exposed | Medium |
| Full war escalation | +50%+ but with extreme volatility | Low |
| OPEC+ increases production | Caps upside, WCP/BTE most affected | Low |
Picks-and-Shovels Analysis (Groq Compound)
| Rank | Ticker | Health | Margins | Bottleneck Risk | Conviction | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WCP.TO | Strong | Improving (+200bps QoQ) | Low | Strong Buy | 80/100 |
| 2 | ATH.TO | Moderate | Improving (+150bps QoQ) | Medium | Buy | 60/100 |
| 3 | BTE.TO | Moderate | Declining (-100bps QoQ) | Medium | Hold | 55/100 |
| 4 | TVE.TO | Weak | Stable | High | Hold | 40/100 |
| 5 | GTE | Weak | Stable | High | Sell | 30/100 |
Top pick: WCP.TO — P/E 10.5, EV/EBITDA 7.5, 90% utilization, 18-month backlog, diversified suppliers, lowest leverage.
Red flags: GTE has >1.5x debt/equity and high customer concentration. TVE single-source supplier risk. ATH elevated leverage but manageable at 0.8x.
Watchlist Integration
These Canadian names are now tracked against EWC and XLE as benchmarks. NNRG excluded (not on Yahoo Finance).
Conviction: HIGH — real performance, real catalyst, well-connected source. WCP.TO is the quality pick. Ceasefire is the main risk.
Thesis 3: "BUG/HACK and IGV have bottomed"
Verdict: TOO EARLY — still falling, not at capitulation levels
The Data
| ETF | What | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | vs SMA20 | From High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUG | Cybersec ETF | $24.33 | -9.2% | -8.3% | -20.2% | 41 | -4.0% | -38% |
| HACK | Cybersec ETF | $73.79 | -7.5% | -5.3% | -8.5% | 44 | -3.0% | -21% |
| IGV | Software ETF | $78.32 | -7.1% | -7.0% | -24.2% | 42 | -2.9% | -37% |
| WCLD | Cloud SaaS | $25.33 | -13.1% | -10.4% | -25.2% | 38 | -6.9% | -35% |
| CIBR | Cybersec ETF | $65.47 | -4.9% | -3.3% | -13.3% | 46 | — | -22% |
Individual Names (the real story)
| Ticker | 3M Change | RSI | From High | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZS (Zscaler) | -46.1% | 26.2 | -65% | CAPITULATING |
| OKTA | -32.8% | 29.7 | -51% | NEAR CAPITULATION |
| S (SentinelOne) | -20.6% | 34.3 | -44% | FALLING |
| NET (Cloudflare) | -10.4% | 33.0 | -36% | FALLING |
| CRWD (CrowdStrike) | -18.8% | 41.3 | -33% | FALLING |
| PANW (Palo Alto) | -17.6% | 44.1 | -30% | FALLING |
| FTNT (Fortinet) | -2.5% | 38.6 | -30% | WEAKENING |
Technical Bottom Checklist
For a confirmed bottom, we need:
- RSI hits <30 (capitulation) — ZS (26.2) and OKTA (29.7) are there, but ETFs aren't yet
- Price reclaims SMA20 from below — all still below SMA20
- Higher low on daily chart — still making lower lows
- Volume spike on reversal day — not visible yet
- Sector rotation signal (money leaving energy → tech) — not yet
Score: 1/5 — we have individual capitulation (ZS, OKTA) but not sector-wide bottom.
Why Theo Might Be Right (Eventually)
These are high-quality companies at steep discounts. The energy shock is compressing software multiples because higher energy costs = higher cloud/compute costs = margin pressure. When energy normalizes (ceasefire, Hormuz reopening), software should re-rate faster than most sectors because the multiple compression reverses.
The playbook: buy ZS/OKTA at RSI <30 capitulation, hold through energy normalization, sell when RSI >70.
What Would Confirm Bottom
- ZS/OKTA stabilize and reclaim SMA20 (leading indicators for the ETFs)
- BUG/HACK daily RSI crosses above 50 from below
- WCLD makes a higher low (currently still making lower lows)
- Oil price declining for 2+ weeks (removes the margin pressure narrative)
Conviction: MEDIUM-LOW — right idea (these will recover), wrong timing (still falling). ZS at RSI 26 is the closest thing to a buy signal in the group.
Action Items
- Added a Canadian O&G tracking list — ATH.TO, TVE.TO, WCP.TO, BTE.TO, GTE + benchmarks
- Monitor UUP weekly for dollar direction (Thesis 1 trigger)
- Monitor ZS/OKTA RSI for capitulation buy signal (Thesis 3)
- Run
research-pickson Canadian energy infrastructure for deeper analysis - Add cybersec bottom-fishing to next full scan watchlist
- Track ATH.TO vs XLE spread as Hormuz proxy
Sources
Price, RSI and trend figures read from the desk's pre-computed scan summaries (summaries).
- Hormuz blockade: see 2026-04-12-gulf-infrastructure-strike
- Energy sector: see
research/scans/for latest energy scan - Cybersec watchlist: cybersec
- Canadian O&G watchlist: canadian-og