• Oil hovering just below $100/bbl DESPITE ceasefire
• Market doubts Hormuz will reopen for normal tanker transit soon
• Insurers and shipowners fear security conditions could deteriorate
• Jet fuel supply chains alone need "months" to stabilize
• Iraq could restore exports within a week, LNG tankers queued at strait
• Asia can't afford current prices while supply restoration takes weeks
• Two-week ceasefire window is INSUFFICIENT for recovery
• Recovery measured in months, not weeks

Key points from Semafor analysis:

• Late May deadline for potential "nonlinear" price spikes if Hormuz remains closed
• Nonlinear pricing = disproportionately sharp increases when strategic reserves breach thresholds. Not gradual — sudden, like a dam breaking
• Supply chain cascades are STAGGERED: Asia already hit → Africa next → Europe follows
• Even with ceasefire, 4 months to normalize: infrastructure repairs, crew confidence, clearing tanker backlogs
• Ryanair CEO warned UK faces jet fuel disruptions…