A pullback that holds above the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close) while RSI cools below 55, then a settled close above $300.40, the October 6 close on the Google agreement

Invalidation: A settled close below the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close), or a third-quarter report (expected around Nov 9, provider date) that does not confirm the Google agreement's terms

holds the 200-day average at $188.51

Invalidation: a weekly close below $188.51

reclaims its 200-day average at $259.70 with RSI back above 45

Invalidation: a weekly close more than 5% below the 200-day

reclaim the 20-day (~$256) with hyperscaler spending language intact on the Jul 29–30 prints

Invalidation: capex language softens and the July shelf breaks — then the contracted-electrons bid is repricing too

held the AI unwind at −5%; reclaim the 20-day (~$1,085) and print a higher low

Invalidation: loses the July low — the complement bid was narrower than the month suggested

first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta markdown, and the entry is print-gated, not chart-gated

Invalidation: lower lows after capex language holds firm — then the fuel-cycle derate is regime, not beta

washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the 50-day (~$105) reclaim is the confirmation, not the entry

Invalidation: the $84 shelf fails — then the fuel-cycle unwind has further to run

the merchant bellwether needs a turn signature, not a dip-buy — a base under the 50-day (~$269), then a reclaim that holds with a higher low

Invalidation: a PJM-style revenue cap lands on its core markets, or the base breaks to new lows below the July shelf

the one working expression — regulated rate-base growth from the same demand; a close at a fresh 52-week high that holds confirms the leadership

Invalidation: loses the 200-day (~$123) — the defensive bid is gone

only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the stock is in a −68%-from-high collapse; a 50-day (~$177) reclaim after a multi-week base is the earliest signal worth acting on

Invalidation: HALEU contract flow stalls, or the base never forms and lower lows continue

the strongest tape of the merchants — hold the $360 shelf and the 200-day (~$371), then clear the 20-day (~$394) to signal the pullback resolved up

Invalidation: a close below $360 turns the pullback into a breakdown

reclaim the 200-day (~$166) and hold it — first sign the derate is done

Invalidation: capacity-revenue caps spread to ERCOT/PJM exposure, or price breaks down from the current shelf instead of basing

the margin inflection (gross profit $4M → $54M in five quarters) needs one more print to be a trend, plus evidence of tenants beyond CoreWeave

Invalidation: gross margin rolls back over the next print, or a break below $28 (the one-year VWAP and support shelf)

reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue inflects — a collapsed 25x parabolic with sub-$100M revenue and operating losses is a lottery aftermath, not a trend

Invalidation: n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong if the substrate cycle produces a durable base and profitability

the steady one — EPS tripled over three quarters on a wire-flagged margin inflection and the tape barely flinched; buy the 20-day reclaim (~$66)

Invalidation: a finish under the 200-day (~$49) — the machine-vision recovery thesis is dead there

reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack

Invalidation: n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong if hosting revenue ramps against falling leverage

reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave tenancy intact

Invalidation: n/a — not owned

elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the least-damaged tape in the sweep — already flagging under its 20-day; buy the reclaim (~$255.50)

Invalidation: a finish under the 200-day (~$160) — until then pullbacks are digestion in an intact uptrend

reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while revenue keeps compounding, and a reclaimed $98–100 (the point-of-control / 200-day cluster)

Invalidation: n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong if CRWV re-rates through $100 on improving coverage

the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two quarters) but the tape trades below its 200-day — watch for the reclaim of the ~$55.60 cluster (50-day, 200-day, one-year VWAP)

Invalidation: gas strip rolling over while price stays below the 200-day through the October print

reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and gigawatt-scale ambitions

Invalidation: n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong if the power-first strategy lands funding without heavy dilution

the July 7 bounce (+13% on the Jefferies initiation and closed Nostrum deal) needs a flag first — buy the reclaim of the $44.50 one-year point-of-control, not the pop

Invalidation: a finish back under ~$35, the level the bounce launched from — that says the bottom failed

the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power acquisition, and a 300–500MW/yr power-generation growth outlook through 2030; buy the 50-day reclaim (~$70)

Invalidation: a finish under $57.50 (top of the prior value area) says the datacenter-power re-rate failed

defense photonics inflected to GAAP profit on +55% revenue with record defense product sales — buy the reclaim of $65.50 (the one-year point of control)

Invalidation: a finish under the ~$51 cluster (200-day and one-year VWAP), or defense revenue momentum stalling at the next print

wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no news we can find — needs the flag to hold; interest returns above the 20-day (~$91)

Invalidation: a finish under the one-year VWAP (~$50.66) unwinds the entire re-rate

pullback within an intact uptrend — buy the 50-day reclaim at ~$217, which says the seven-day air pocket resolved

Invalidation: a finish under the 200-day (~$134) — at that point the hypergrowth story is repricing, not consolidating

the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS beat and the wire flagged the margin inflection; buy the 50-day reclaim (~$383), with the July 28 print as the catalyst

Invalidation: a finish under the 200-day (~$270), or the July 28 print showing the 'lumpy, concentrated among large customers' risk arriving early

the $2.63B war chest has to start converting into hosting revenue on the P&L — watch the Q2 print; a 50-day reclaim (~$24.30) alongside it upgrades this to a buy candidate

Invalidation: cash burn without contracted revenue landing by the Q3 print, or a breakdown under the $15.67 support shelf

A pullback that holds above the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close) while RSI cools below 55, then a settled close above $300.40, the October 6 close on the Google agreement

Invalidation: A settled close below the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close), or a third-quarter report (expected around Nov 9, provider date) that does not confirm the Google agreement's terms

reclaim the 20-day (~$256) with hyperscaler spending language intact on the Jul 29–30 prints

Invalidation: capex language softens and the July shelf breaks — then the contracted-electrons bid is repricing too

held the AI unwind at −5%; reclaim the 20-day (~$1,085) and print a higher low

Invalidation: loses the July low — the complement bid was narrower than the month suggested

first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta markdown, and the entry is print-gated, not chart-gated

Invalidation: lower lows after capex language holds firm — then the fuel-cycle derate is regime, not beta

Friday printed a reversal bar (low $804, closed $848.95); a close above that bar's high ($903.93) confirms it — the trend-hold entry itself still needs the base and a 20-day reclaim ($1,023)

Invalidation: a close below Friday's low ($804) voids the reversal; the knife is still falling

the general never broke (−3.7% in 30 days vs the ETF's −15.7%); a reclaim of its 50-day ($209.81) is the complex-repair signal — the leader turns first

Invalidation: a close below the $186.48 volume shelf means the general finally fell and the whole complex read resets bearish

the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low, confirmed through the 20-day ($610.93); until then every bounce is a bounce inside a downtrend

Invalidation: a close below Friday's low ($536.81) means the bounce attempt failed and the next leg down is open

the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the high after touching $700.39; above Friday's high ($808.65) with the July 28 print ahead, the bounce has legs

Invalidation: a close below $700.39 means Friday was a dead-cat, not a turn

reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke this week, now the recovery tell

Invalidation: lower lows continue below $270 after the prints — then the derate is regime, not scare

gated on the prints, not the chart — a storage/memory print (STX Jul 28, WDC Jul 29, SNDK Aug 5) showing DRAM/NAND pricing intact, plus a first higher low

Invalidation: a print that shows pricing momentum actually rolling — then the derate was early, not wrong

the R1 playbook leg — hold the 20-day retest (~$202) through the July 28–29 storage prints, then a higher low; the efficiency-scare component tends to mean-revert if the fundamentals hold

Invalidation: the retest fails and the pullback becomes a breakdown below the July shelf, or hyperscaler capex language actually softens on the July 29–30 prints

the quality expression of the rotation — already back above all three moving averages with RSI under 60 and half a billion of operating cash flow; buyable at structure, add on strength over the 20-day (~$338 now support)

Invalidation: a finish under the 50-day (~$320) puts it back in the broken cohort; under the one-year VWAP (~$310) the rotation call was early

the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen on the first orderly pullback that holds the 50-day

Invalidation: n/a — not owned; the pass is a timing pass, not a thesis pass

the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but still in a downtrend, 43% off its high — watch for a base; this is a lane signal, not yet an entry

Invalidation: the bounce fades below the June low with the lane's 7-day breadth rolling back under 50%