Drone defense: contracts become profitable deliveries · Campaigns

Campaign

Drone defense: contracts become profitable deliveries

monitoring · Defense

Horizon 6–18 months; first review after the scheduled September 9 results. Last research review Latest evidence Priority medium

Evidence

Supports, challenges and context. A linked source is not confirmation by itself.

  1. contextassociation only

    Gaurab — Patriot missile replenishment runs through a handful of US ball-screw grinders

  2. contextassociation only

    Drone Stocks Fell Through a Summer of Bullish Policy, and No Drone ETF Is Above Its 200-Day Yet

  3. supportsunverified

    AeroVironment fiscal Q1 2027 10-Q: revenue, segment results, diluted shares and funded backlog on filed authority — article

    Evidence as of 2026-09-10

    The 10-Q filed September 10 puts the order leg on filed authority: funded backlog of $1,457.8M at August 1, up from $1,183.0M at April 30, with $1,366.5M unfunded; it states no total backlog or book-to-bill. Conversion is split: Autonomous Systems revenue rose 21% and its segment adjusted EBITDA 18% to $62.3M, but Switchblade product revenue fell $56.9M on order delays, SCDE segment adjusted EBITDA swung to $(8.9)M, and total segment adjusted EBITDA slipped to $53.4M from $56.6M. GAAP loss from operations narrowed to $10.9M from $69.3M, mostly on lower amortization and acquisition costs, while diluted shares rose to 49.82M from 46.88M and diluted EPS improved to $(0.10) from $(1.44).

    Read working note

    AeroVironment fiscal Q1 2027 10-Q: revenue, segment results, diluted shares and funded backlog on filed authority — article

    **Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1368622/000110465926106423/avav-20260801x10q.htm

    Summary

    The 10-Q for the quarter ended August 1, 2026 (filed September 10) puts the drone-defense order leg on filed authority: funded backlog of $1,457.8M versus $1,183.0M at April 30, with $1,366.5M unfunded and no total backlog or book-to-bill stated. Revenue $480.5M versus $454.7M a year earlier; GAAP loss from operations $10.9M versus $69.3M; diluted weighted shares 49.82M versus 46.88M; diluted EPS $(0.10) versus $(1.44). Autonomous Systems revenue rose 21% and its segment adjusted EBITDA 18% to $62.3M, while Switchblade product revenue fell $56.9M on order delays and SCDE segment adjusted EBITDA swung to $(8.9)M. Evidence for the September 23 campaign review; the second leg of the dilution test waits for fiscal Q2.

    Filed figures (GAAP, three months unless noted)

    Item FQ1 2027 (to Aug 1, 2026) FQ1 2026 (to Aug 2, 2025) Note
    Revenue $480.5M $454.7M The filing states +$25.8M, or 6%
    Loss from operations $(10.9)M $(69.3)M Consolidated GAAP
    Net loss $(5.1)M $(67.4)M
    Diluted EPS $(0.10) $(1.44)
    Diluted weighted-average shares 49,822,595 46,882,350 Same as basic because of the net loss; 330,957 anti-dilutive shares excluded
    Autonomous Systems revenue $346.0M $285.3M +21% per the filing
    Autonomous Systems segment adjusted EBITDA $62.3M $52.8M The segment measure the filing reports; not GAAP operating income
    Space, Cyber & Directed Energy revenue $134.5M $169.4M −21% per the filing
    Space, Cyber & Directed Energy segment adjusted EBITDA $(8.9)M $3.8M
    Total segment adjusted EBITDA $53.4M $56.6M Reconciles after D&A of $(56.0)M vs $(90.3)M and acquisition expenses of $(2.1)M vs $(23.7)M
    Switchblade product revenue down $56.9M year on year — "due to order delays"; ESAero revenue of $41.8M partly offset
    Funded backlog (remaining performance obligations) $1,457.8M at Aug 1, 2026 $1,183.0M at Apr 30, 2026 About 78% expected to be recognized in fiscal 2027
    Unfunded backlog $1,366.5M at Aug 1, 2026 — Not a performance obligation
    Total backlog / book-to-bill not stated — The filing gives neither
    Cash and equivalents $278.4M at Aug 1, 2026 $377.3M at Apr 30, 2026 Short-term investments $301.8M vs $255.0M
    Operating cash flow $13.5M $(123.7)M Three months
    Fiscal 2026 comparison (10-K filed 2026-06-29) revenue $1.98B; operating loss $(311.0)M; diluted EPS $(5.40); diluted weighted shares 49,087,346 — Full fiscal year

    The only subsequent event disclosed is a $29.25M campus purchase; the LOCUST E-HEL award announced on the company's site on September 2 falls after the quarter and is not in the filing.

    Sources

  4. contextreviewed interpretation

    Campaign 1: WOUNDED, market expression

    Evidence as of 2026-09-04

    Earlier same-day thesis review retained as context. Its prior classification is historical; the current scope review supplies the live disposition and preserves its unresolved evidence gaps.

  5. contextreviewed interpretation

    AeroVironment: the next procurement review date

    Evidence as of 2026-08-26

    The scheduled release supplies the next deliberate review date. The result has not occurred; procurement conversion and margins remain open questions.

  6. contextassociation only

    The Defense Trade Is at Its Highs. The Drone Trade Is Half Off.

  7. contextassociation only

    The End of Armor, Again