Energy shock to hardship: the Saudi phase of the Iran war · Campaigns

Campaign

Energy shock to hardship: the Saudi phase of the Iran war

active · Energy · Geopolitics · Food · Shipping · Inflation

Horizon Weeks to two quarters. Freight and insurance costs land on Western shelves with a one-to-two-quarter lag, so the case is graded through the 2026-27 northern winter and closed or promoted by the March 2027 CPI cycle. Last research review Latest evidence Priority high

Ideas and calls

Long, bearish, hedge and relative-value ideas can coexist. Only explicitly issued calls enter the existing scoreboard; short and hedge performance is not graded.

Issued calls · returns compare the symbol with SPY after 30 and 90 days. Positive excess supports a BUY; negative excess supports TRIM or SELL. WAIT and research ideas have no score. These are call outcomes, not a campaign return.

Entry and invalidationHorizon / review30 days90 days
DBAWAIT2026-09-18 · openOriginal call

DBA back over its 50-day with RSI above 50 (Sept 18 close $28.15, RSI 41.4, 0.3% under the 50-day), confirmed by a positive food-at-home month in the September CPI on Oct 14

Invalidation: DBA loses its 200-day (4.1% below Friday's close) or the Oct 14 print leaves food at home flat-to-negative again

Not recordedReview 2026-10-14
Not gradedNot graded
No records in this view yet.