Cloud SaaS

Update

Cloud SaaS

INTU surged +20.8% week to $433 (near 52wk high $445). WDAY recovered +10.3% week to $143.61. CRWD bounced +11.9% week. ZS/OKTA fresh prices. ADBE still stale 02/05. Most names making meaningful recoveries from Feb lows.


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 RECOVERING — Broad SaaS bounce underway. INTU +20.8% week is massive. WDAY recovering but still -15.6% 30D. CRWD bounced strongly. ZS/OKTA fresh but still deep.
Key insight INTU +20.8% week to $433 (was RSI 35 on 02/26). CRWD +11.9% week. WDAY +10.3% week — last laggard now recovering. ZS $154.67 (-16.8% 30D) and OKTA $72.52 (-13.1% 30D) still below prior highs.

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
BUY ADBE RSI 30 (stale 02/05), -19.8% 30D — creative cloud leader, verify current RSI
📈 ACCUMULATE WDAY $143.61, -15.6% 30D — recovered +10.3% week but still lagging, enterprise HR monopoly
📈 ACCUMULATE ZS $154.67, -16.8% 30D — cybersecurity, significant discount from $185 52wk high
📈 ACCUMULATE OKTA $72.52, -13.1% 30D — identity security, -18.0% below 52wk high
🔒 HOLD SNOW $165.51, +2.8% week — data cloud recovering
🔒 HOLD DDOG $111.77, +7.0% week — observability bouncing
🔒 HOLD NET $178.83, +9.2% week, +7.2% 30D — now outperforming
🔒 HOLD SHOP $122.00, +4.3% week, +7.0% 30D — above prior lows
🔒 HOLD CRWD $391.83, +11.9% week — strong bounce from -6.7% 30D
🔒 HOLD CRM $198.15 (stale 02/26), RSI 57 — above SMA
🔒 HOLD NOW $107.57 (stale 02/26), RSI 57 — recovery holding
⚠️ WATCH INTU $433.35, +20.8% week — massive surge, verify thesis before chasing

Data (Validated 2026-03-03)

Stock Price 7D 30D 52wkHi RSI SMA20 vs SMA Status Action
ADBE $269.39 -7.6% -19.8% $339.04 30 $300.08 -10.2% 🔴 Oversold (stale 02/05) ✅ Buy
OKTA $72.52 +1.9% -13.1% $88.45 🟡 Recovering 📈 Accumulate
ZS $154.67 +3.6% -16.8% $185.79 🟡 Recovering 📈 Accumulate
WDAY $143.61 +10.3% -15.6% $170.15 🟡 Recovering 📈 Accumulate
SNOW $165.51 +2.8% +0.1% $182.58 🟢 Recovering 🔒 Hold
DDOG $111.77 +7.0% -3.4% $129.67 🟢 Bouncing 🔒 Hold
SHOP $122.00 +4.3% +7.0% $127.24 🟢 Above prior lows 🔒 Hold
CRM $198.15 +6.9% -13.6% $229.40 57 $192.90 +2.7% 🟢 Recovering (stale 02/26) 🔒 Hold
NOW $107.57 +0.2% -21.1% $136.34 57 $106.89 +0.6% 🟢 At SMA (stale 02/26) 🔒 Hold
NET $178.83 +9.2% +7.2% $195.85 🟢 Strong 🔒 Hold
CRWD $391.83 +11.9% -5.7% $429.64 🟢 Bouncing 🔒 Hold
INTU $433.35 +20.8% -2.8% $445.64 🟠 Large surge ⚠️ Watch

Note: ADBE data as of 02/05, CRM/NOW as of 02/26 — stale. WDAY, ZS, OKTA, CRWD, SNOW, DDOG, NET, SHOP, INTU price updated 03/03 but no RSI/SMA in feed.


Key Changes vs 02/26

Stock 02/26 Price 03/03 Price Move Note
INTU $389.33 $433.35 +11.3% Massive week — was RSI 35 laggard, now near 52wk high
CRWD $429.64 $391.83 -8.8% Dropped then recovered — current +11.9% 7D is from lower base
WDAY $138.57 $143.61 +3.6% Last laggard recovering but -15.6% 30D still deep
NET $173.33 $178.83 +3.2% Now +7.2% 30D — outperforming SaaS peers
SNOW $169.70 $165.51 -2.5% Slight pullback — still recovering
DDOG $114.28 $111.77 -2.2% Slight pullback — +7.0% 7D confirms bounce
ZS $169.39 $154.67 -8.7% Continued weakness despite sector recovery
OKTA $81.64 $72.52 -11.2% Continued decline — not participating in bounce

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
INTU +20.8% week from RSI 35 laggard Earnings/guidance drove massive reversal — thesis validated
ZS/OKTA not participating in SaaS bounce Cybersecurity sub-sector lagging — check individual catalysts
NET +7.2% 30D while peers flat-to-down Cloudflare outperforming — check for differentiated catalyst

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Waiting for price confirmation on RSI 35 INTU RSI 35 was the entry — missed +20.8% surge

Open Questions

  • ZS/OKTA -13-17% 30D while peers recovering — structural issues or delayed recovery?
  • INTU +20.8% week — is $433 a new base or exhaustion after the surge?
  • WDAY recovering +10.3% week but -15.6% 30D — is the worst over?
10 events

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