Full Scan Market Brief

Market Brief

Full Scan Market Brief

Full Scan Market Brief — March 26, 2026

Focus List

Symbol Price RSI Trend 30D% 3M% Note
MSFT $365.97 25.4 strong-down -6.8% -24.7% Death cross; -34% from high
TSLA $372.11 37.3 down -7.6% -19.0% Golden cross holding; -25% from high
NVDA $171.24 38.8 down -3.4% -9.0% Golden cross; at SMA200
AAPL $252.89 42.7 weak-down -4.3% -7.5% Least broken mega-cap
GOOGL $280.96 28.4 weak-down -9.8% -10.3% Golden cross; best oversold risk/reward
AMZN $207.68 45.2 strong-down -1.1% -10.5% Death cross; -7.6% vs SMA200
NET $210.05 54.5 up +22.0% +4.7% Only uptrending focus name
ARM $154.80 74.4 up +21.5% +40.1% Overbought; licensing boom
NTR $73.68 47.0 strong-up -1.9% +17.5% War-thesis fertilizer play

The Big Picture

This is a war market, and the war is doing exactly what wars do: oil goes parabolic, everything else gets crushed, and the distortions create both traps and once-in-a-cycle opportunities.

The numbers tell the story in three acts:

Act 1 — Energy's Blowoff. USO +68.5% in three months. XLE RSI 81.2. EOG RSI 84.2. COP RSI 81. DVN RSI 79.3. These are readings you see maybe once every five years. Oil services (HAL, SLB) strong but not as extreme. The entire E&P sector is priced for Hormuz staying closed indefinitely. The smart money question isn't whether to own oil — it's whether the insurance premium for "what if the war ends" is worth paying.

Act 2 — The Wreckage. SPY RSI 33.1. QQQ RSI 34.7. MSFT RSI 25.4. META RSI 25.7. GOOGL RSI 28.4. XLC RSI 26.6. Housing (ITB RSI 32, XHB RSI 34) gutted. Gold — yes, gold, during a war — crashed 17% in 30 days because the dollar squeeze forced liquidation. Europe (EWG RSI 24.6, VGK RSI 25.7) is approaching panic levels. These aren't minor pullbacks. MSFT at -34% from its high hasn't happened since 2022. META at -31%. ADBE at -43%. WDAY at -54%.

Act 3 — What's Actually Working. It's a short list: oil (XLE, XOP, USO), custom silicon (MRVL +14% 3M, ARM +40% 3M), edge infrastructure (FSLY +180% 3M, AKAM +33% 3M, NET +22% 30D), and agriculture (DBA, CORN, WEAT all strong-up). The dollar (UUP strong-up, RSI 63) is the puppet master — while it stays strong, gold stays crushed and EM stays down.


Sector Scorecard

Sector RSI Range Trend Assessment
Energy (E&P) 71-84 strong-up OVERBOUGHT — parabolic; trail stops
Oil Services 56-70 strong-up Strong but cooling relative to E&P
Agriculture 54-72 strong-up Quietly working; DBA overbought
Cybersecurity (infra) 55-69 up/strong-up NET, AKAM, FSLY — only tech winners
Custom Silicon 66-74 strong-up/up MRVL, ARM — AI hardware rotation
Small Caps (IWM) 43 weak-down Holding up better; domestic exposure
Broad Indices 33-35 down Golden crosses intact but tested
Defense 33-53 weak-down Q1 run over; GD only survivor
Healthcare 29-57 mixed JNJ/BIIB strong; UNH/SYK broken
Consumer 33-55 mixed TGT/T/VZ working; HD/LOW avoid
Enterprise SaaS 30-40 strong-down Death crosses everywhere
Mega-Cap Tech 25-45 strong-down MSFT/META/GOOGL capitulation
Precious Metals 27-34 weak-down Historic crash; dollar squeeze
Housing 32-34 down Near capitulation; rate-sensitive
International 25-40 down Europe worst; EM weakening
Crypto 40-50 strong-down Death crosses; bear market rally

Key Signals

Monsters (What's Running)

The monster scan found ONE clean cluster: oil. USO, XOP, XLE, COP, DVN, OXY, HAL, SLB, OIH — all qualifying with strong-up, golden cross, 30%+ above SMA200. Every monster in the market is an energy name. Tech has zero clean monsters. Defense monsters have faded.

Discovery names: AAOI (optical networking, +161% vs SMA200) and AEIS (power/semi equipment, +52% vs SMA200) surfaced as non-energy monsters.

Insider Buying

Insider buying is concentrated in beaten-down tech: MSFT, META, GOOGL, ADBE, TSLA, NVDA, CRM, NET. Management teams are buying their own stock at multi-year lows. The strongest signal combo is GOOGL — RSI 28.4 with golden cross intact AND insider buying.

The Gold Anomaly

GLD RSI 30.8, SLV RSI 35.6, GDX RSI 33.7, SIL RSI 27.2. Gold falling 17% in 30 days during an active war is historically unprecedented. Dollar strength (UUP RSI 63, strong-up) is the cause — margin calls forcing gold liquidation. Golden crosses still intact across the metals complex. When the dollar turns, this snaps back violently. See perspectives/2026-03-26-gold-crash.md.

Housing Approaching Capitulation

ITB RSI 32, -11.4% below SMA200, -15.8% 30D. XHB RSI 34, -8.7% below SMA200, -14.8% 30D. This is the most distorted sector for a war-ends scenario. If ceasefire → oil drops → rates drop → housing snaps back 15-20%. See perspectives/2026-03-26-war-ends-playbook.md.


What I'd Tell a Friend

Your friend who wants to buy DELL with oil profits? Don't. DELL has its own thing going (+46% 30D on AI server demand, RSI 76) — that's a momentum play, not a war-ends play. If you want enterprise tech exposure for when the war ends and budgets unfreeze, IBM at RSI 51 and 13x FCF is cleaner. But honestly, the highest-conviction war-ends trades aren't in tech at all:

  1. Housing (ITB/XHB) — RSI 32-34, most compressed spring
  2. Gold (GLD/GDX) — RSI 31-34, anomalous crash reverses when dollar turns
  3. India (INDA) — RSI 19 last check, extreme capitulation
  4. Consumer (XLY) — gas savings = spending power

For right now, today, with no war resolution in sight: trail stops on oil (RSI 79-84 is extreme), accumulate GOOGL (best mega-cap risk/reward), and watch the dollar. The day UUP starts falling is the day everything changes.


Active Perspectives

Perspective Status Key Update
Iran War & Oil ACTIVE (Critical) Grinding stalemate; E&P RSI 80-85 even more extreme
Gold Crash Anomaly ACTIVE (High) GLD stabilizing at RSI 31; selling exhaustion beginning
Oil $200 Scenario ACTIVE (High) Folded into war perspective
War Ends Playbook ACTIVE (High) 14-trade ranked playbook across all sectors
Crypto-Geopolitics MONITORING BTC flat at $69K; divergence narrowing
Cyber-Geopolitical MONITORING Only NET/AKAM confirmed; approaching decay

Scan Summary

21 scans completed:

  • market-pulse, ai-scan, ai-infrastructure, biotech-scan, healthcare-scan
  • defensive-scan, consumer-scan, retail-scan, cloud-etfs, cybersec
  • ev-clean-energy, monster-scan, nvda-ecosystem, tech-insider-buys
  • macro-commodities, defense-contractors, geopolitical-risk, etf-universe
  • crypto-scan, bargain-bin, insider-scan

All 6 perspectives refreshed with March 26 data.

Full scan completed 2026-03-26. Data from validated daily summaries (code does math, LLMs do analysis).

Sources

Price, RSI and trend figures read from the desk's validated daily scan summaries (research/market-engine/data/summaries/). No number in this note was computed in prose.

5 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.