Source

ARCHIVED 2026-04-26 — folded into US Energy Dominance per the 2026-04-26 retrospective. Crisis cooled (VXX -16% 7D, oil retreating from peaks, nonlinear-pricing trigger not firing on schedule). Structural pieces (Canadian oil premium, oilfield services strength, key tickers HAL/SLB/BNO) absorbed into . oil-200-scenario kept as a child of US Energy Dominance for the tail-risk leg. Other former children (gold-crash, crypto-geopolitics, war-ends-playbook, gulf-infrastructure-strike) now stand alone — see for the family tree at fold time. Preserved here for historical reference.

Previous: [2026-04-03-iran-war-oil.md]

Update — April 14, 2026: NAVAL BLOCKADE + Three-Market Divergence

REFRAMED. Naval blockade of Hormuz announced April 13, started April 14 10am ET. Peace talks failed. The perspective is no longer just "oil crisis" — it's three parallel realities:

• Camp 1 (US Energy Dominance): Blockade = US leverage. America net exporter. Equities rallied +1.7% on blockade day. VIX crashed. Market pricing hegemony, not chaos. New child perspective: .
• Camp 2 (Nonlinear Crisis): Asian floating inventories 102M→42M in 3 weeks. Semafor reports late May deadline for reserve threshold breach → nonlinear price spikes. Even with ceasefire: 4 months to normalize. Oil $200 scenario re-escalated to ACTIVE.
• Camp 3 (Gold Broken): Gold flat then -4.6% on blockade day. Safe haven narrativ...