Tweet

• Source: https://x.com/RichTerry123/status/2042513841859498141
• Author: Terry (@RichTerry123)
• Date captured: 2026-04-11
• integrated_into: .brief/physical-ai-infrastructure-thesis.md

TL;DR

Bloomberg reports Lumentum expects to sell out 2028 production capacity within two quarters, driven by their acquisition of an InP (indium phosphide) optical device factory. NVDA invested in LITE because as AI compute clusters scale, optical interconnect costs and bottlenecks increase — ensuring Rubin-era GPUs aren't constrained. At 27x PE, growth is the best antidote to valuation concerns.

Key Takeaways

• InP (indium phosphide) is the key material — LITE acquired a factory specifically for InP-based optical devices
• Companies with InP capability may be the best plays on photonics scarcity
• NVDA's investment was specifically to ensure Rubin-era GPUs aren't bottlenecked by optical interconnects
• 27x PE is reasonable if growth continues — growth "digests" the valuation
• This is Chinese-language fintwit — the LITE thesis has gone international, not just US analysts
• Confirms and expands on @kawzinvests' earlier analysis — adds the InP material angle

New Data Points

• InP factory acquisition — not just capacity expansion, but vertical integration into materials
• Rubin-era GPU planning — NVDA is thinking 2-3 years ahead on interconnect bottlenecks
• OFC conference takeaways (quoted...