Source

New perspective — synthesized from Frank's four-wave framework + our 3-agent supply chain trace + @aleabitoreddit photonics scorecard

Status: ACTIVE — Wave 1 (800G) peaking, Wave 2 (LPO) ramping, Waves 3-4 on horizon

Narrative arc: Technology wave progression — bottleneck shifts across 4 overlapping phases

Type: Supply chain trace (Paradigm 1)

This is our highest-conviction technology thesis. Three independent sources converge: Frank's four-wave framework (months of manual research), our 3-agent autonomous trace (5 minutes, unanimous convergence on COHR/LITE/FN), and @aleabitoreddit's YTD photonics scorecard (SIVE +100%, AXTI +42%). NVIDIA committed $6B in non-cancelable deals across COHR, LITE, and MRVL — this isn't speculation, it's locked capex.

The Four-Wave Framework

The market isn't static. What's a bottleneck TODAY gives way to different bottlenecks TOMORROW. The key insight: you need to know which wave is PEAKING (momentum), which is RAMPING (early money), and which is NEXT (research).