Optical Supply Chain Scan
Optical Supply Chain Scan
THE BIGGEST WINNER OF THE RETROSPECTIVE. AI optical supercycle is fully in motion — LITE +165% 3M, CIEN +124%, AXTI +328%, LWLG +270%, FORM +110%, COHR +70%. The entire chain is running. Multiple names are now overbought (RSI 70+); this is a trim-and-hold setup, not a new entry. ALAB RSI 84 and FORM RSI 82 are screaming caution — parabolic moves invite violent reversals.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 Extended — thesis fully confirmed, now managing gains |
| Key insight | Structural AI demand is real and durable, but 3M returns of 100-300%+ mean all new entries need a pullback to RSI 50-55 range |
| Overbought alert | ALAB (RSI 84), FORM (RSI 82), JBL (RSI 78), SNDK (RSI 74), CLS (RSI 74), TSEM (RSI 71), LPTH (RSI 70) |
| Best positioned | AXTI, LWLG, SMTC — still in mid-run territory (RSI 58-62), not yet extended |
| Stale/no data | SIVE, MACOM, IQE — no price data available |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | vs SMA200 | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | $881.64 | -0.59% | +13.44% | +165.19% | 58.4 | +145% | 🟡 Healthy | 🔒 Hold |
| COHR | $336.09 | -2.22% | +23.54% | +69.95% | 65.3 | +94% | 🟠 Near OB | 🔒 Hold |
| CIEN | $520.80 | +3.21% | +18.99% | +124.26% | 67.9 | +130% | 🟠 Near OB | 🔒 Hold |
| ALAB | $212.84 | +24.82% | +76.88% | +30.38% | 83.6 ↑ | +33% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Trim |
| SMTC | $91.83 | +1.85% | +3.18% | +23.79% | 61.3 | +33% | 🟡 Healthy | 🔒 Hold |
| TSEM | $209.47 | +6.65% | +51.27% | +70.02% | 71.3 ↑ | +114% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Trim |
| LWLG | $12.67 | -11.84% | +47.50% | +270.47% | 61.7 | +176% | 🟡 Healthy | 🔒 Hold |
| VIAV | $41.48 | +16.15% | +31.27% | +133.03% | 66.4 | +125% | 🟠 Near OB | 🔒 Hold |
| GLW | $175.89 | +5.92% | +20.18% | +85.60% | 68.6 | +81% | 🟠 Near OB | 🔒 Hold |
| FN | $720.19 | +5.24% | +17.67% | +51.90% | 69.2 | +62% | 🟠 Near OB | 🔒 Hold |
| CLS | $410.21 | +2.95% | +35.73% | +33.08% | 73.9 ↑ | +49% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Trim |
| JBL | $341.65 | +4.49% | +20.62% | +41.34% | 78.4 ↑ | +46% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Trim |
| PLAB | $45.86 | +5.47% | +32.93% | +32.81% | 67.4 | +62% | 🟠 Near OB | 🔒 Hold |
| ONTO | $258.90 | +10.91% | +33.01% | +17.54% | 67.7 | +68% | 🟠 Near OB | 🔒 Hold |
| FORM | $155.08 | +8.87% | +43.50% | +109.57% | 82.3 ↑ | +148% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Trim |
| AXTI | $76.16 | -0.96% | +13.08% | +327.87% | 58.3 | +288% | 🟡 Healthy | 🔒 Hold |
| LPTH | $16.09 | +7.40% | +34.64% | +57.28% | 70.4 ↑ | +88% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Caution |
| SOI.PA | $63.74 | +28.33% | N/A | N/A | 68.6 | +70% | 🟠 Near OB | 🔍 Watch |
| SNDK | $952.50 | +17.78% | +35.37% | +145.61% | 74.2 ↑ | +232% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Trim |
| NGKIF | $27.80 | -2.46% | +9.79% | +17.00% | 59.4 | +41% | 🟡 Healthy | 📈 Accumulate |
| ALRIB.PA | $13.84 | -2.12% | +142.81% | +134.18% | 69.6 | +209% | 🟠 Near OB | 🔍 Watch |
| SIVE | N/A | — | — | — | — | — | — | ❌ No data |
| MACOM | N/A | — | — | — | — | — | — | ❌ No data |
| IQE | N/A | — | — | — | — | — | — | ❌ No data |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Parabolic / Overbought (Trim Zones)
ALAB ($212.84, RSI 84), FORM ($155.08, RSI 82), JBL ($341.65, RSI 78), SNDK ($952.50, RSI 74), CLS ($410.21, RSI 74), TSEM ($209.47, RSI 71), LPTH ($16.09, RSI 70)
All 7 are 40-232% above SMA200. This is not a place for new entry. Trim 25-33% of position to lock gains and reload on pullback to RSI 55-60.
Tier 2 — Extended But Not Extreme (Hold Tight)
CIEN ($520.80, RSI 68), GLW ($175.89, RSI 69), FN ($720.19, RSI 69), ONTO ($258.90, RSI 68), PLAB ($45.86, RSI 67), COHR ($336.09, RSI 65), VIAV ($41.48, RSI 66)
Solid momentum, not yet overbought. Hold positions. Watch for any RSI push above 72 as a fresh trim trigger.
Tier 3 — Mid-Run (Best Add Points If Pullback Happens)
AXTI ($76.16, RSI 58), LITE ($881.64, RSI 58), SMTC ($91.83, RSI 61), LWLG ($12.67, RSI 62), NGKIF ($27.80, RSI 59)
These pulled back from highs or digested gains. AXTI at +328% 3M but RSI only 58 = digesting. LWLG -11.84% this week = cooling. These are the add-on-dip names if the broader thesis stays intact.
Tier 4 — Watch / Speculative
SOI.PA ($63.74), ALRIB.PA ($13.84) — European plays, limited US data visibility. Both strong-up trend. Worth monitoring but position sizing should be smaller.
Entry Zones (For Adding to Existing Positions)
| Stock | Current | Entry Zone | RSI Target | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI | $76.16 | $65-70 | RSI 45-50 | Best compound optician; GaN-on-SiC substrate monopoly |
| LWLG | $12.67 | $10.50-11.50 | RSI 45-50 | LiDAR polymer waveguide; -11.84% this week already pulling back |
| SMTC | $91.83 | $82-87 | RSI 48-52 | Semtech analog + optical comms infrastructure |
| NGKIF | $27.80 | $25.50-26.50 | RSI 45-50 | NGK Insulators — ceramics for optical fab |
| COHR | $336.09 | $290-310 | RSI 50-55 | Coherent vertical integration story intact |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ TRIM 25-33% | ALAB, FORM, JBL, SNDK, CLS, TSEM | RSI 70-84; 40-232% above SMA200; lock partial gains |
| ⚠️ CAUTION | LPTH, VIAV | RSI 70+; watch for reversal |
| 🔒 HOLD | LITE, COHR, CIEN, FN, ONTO, PLAB, GLW | Mid-range RSI 58-70; thesis intact; don't sell into strength |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE ON PULLBACK | AXTI, LWLG, SMTC, NGKIF | Digesting; best reload zones; strongest thesis clarity |
| 🔍 WATCH | SOI.PA, ALRIB.PA | EU names, less data; monitor |
| ❌ NO DATA | SIVE, MACOM, IQE | Cannot evaluate |
What Changed vs 2026-04-10
| Factor | 2026-04-10 | 2026-04-26 | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thesis status | Active / building | Confirmed — retrospective winner | HIT |
| LITE | ~$332 estimated | $881.64 | +165% 3M — explosive |
| CIEN | ~$232 estimated | $520.80 | +124% 3M — monster run |
| AXTI | ~$18 estimated | $76.16 | +328% 3M — parabolic |
| LWLG | ~$3.40 estimated | $12.67 | +270% 3M — spec winner |
| FORM | ~$74 estimated | $155.08 | +110% 3M — now RSI 82 |
| Overbought names | 0-1 | 7 names RSI 70+ | Risk elevated |
| New entry risk | Moderate | High — chasing at highs | Shifted to trim mode |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Entire optical chain moved together | Confirms AI datacenter buildout is in full swing — this is infrastructure, not sentiment |
| AXTI +328% 3M with RSI only 58 | Suggests GaN-on-SiC substrate supply is genuinely constrained — market isn't done pricing it in |
| ALAB RSI 84 while still -19% from 52wk high | Death cross present — short-term parabolic on top of longer-term structural weakness; trim aggressively |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Chasing names at RSI 80+ | The best entries were RSI <40 before the move; don't buy ALAB or FORM here |
Open Questions
- Does SNDK (SanDisk — recently spun/restructured) have enough optical/photonic exposure to justify its 145% 3M run, or is it riding optical sentiment?
- When CIEN reports next quarter, does revenue actually confirm the AI datacenter orders or is this multiple expansion without earnings yet?
- MACOM still no data — worth checking directly; they make optical semiconductors for datacenters.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.