AI Infrastructure Scan
AI Infrastructure Scan
The physical AI buildout is now a confirmed multi-quarter supercycle: VRT +75.6% 3M (RSI 68), CRDO +89% 30D, ON +67.6% 30D (RSI 76), FIX +35% 30D, NOK +42% 30D (RSI 73), CLS +40.5% 30D, ANET +42.3% 30D — but speculative nuclear is in freefall (SMR -52% 3M, -83% from ATH) and FCX cracked (-13.9% 7D, RSI 39). The picks-and-shovels trade is dispersing: cooling/networking/optical bid relentlessly, while pure-play SMR and copper take a breather.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 PHYSICAL AI SUPERCYCLE EXTENDING — Power, cooling, networking, optical interconnects, data center construction all confirmed in synchronized breakout. Specific names diverging from breadth — copper (FCX) and SMR collapsing. |
| Leaders | CRDO (+89.0% 30D, RSI 59), ON (+13.2% 7D, +67.6% 30D, RSI 75.5↑), NOK (+42.0% 30D, RSI 73↑), ANET (+42.3% 30D, RSI 60), CLS (+40.5% 30D, RSI 53), FIX (+35.0% 30D, RSI 62), MOD (+17.3% 30D), SCCO (+10.4% 7D, +11.1% 30D), GLW (+19.1% 30D), EME (+23.3% 30D, RSI 66), CAT (+22.8% 30D, RSI 65), ETN (+20.2% 30D, RSI 63) |
| Laggards | SMR (-11.1% 7D, -20.0% 30D, -51.7% 3M, RSI 36↓, -83% from ATH), FCX (-13.9% 7D, RSI 39↓), AMT (-2.3% 7D, death cross), GLW (-5.5% vs SMA20 — pullback), AWK (-4.4% 30D, RSI 47), ECL (RSI 44), NBIS (-9.7% 7D) |
| Key insight | Three sub-themes are simultaneously breaking out: (1) cooling/HVAC (VRT +75.6% 3M, MOD +34.1% 3M, TT +22.9% 3M); (2) networking/connectivity (NOK +79.7% 3M, ANET +42.3% 30D, TEL +15.2% 30D); (3) electrical construction (FIX +46.8% 3M, EME +18.3% 3M, PWR +26.8% 3M, CAT +23.2% 3M). Picks-and-shovels has graduated from thesis to trade. |
Price Table
Power & Cooling Infrastructure
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | $299.96 | +13.1% | +13.3% | +75.6% | 68.2 | +12.8% | strong-up | 🟠 Vertiv: cooling — RSI 68, +310% 1Y |
| TT | $472.94 | +8.2% | +12.2% | +22.9% | 68.9 | +10.0% | strong-up | 🟠 Trane HVAC — RSI 69, near ATH (-1.3%) |
| ETN | $413.07 | -0.1% | +20.2% | +16.9% | 63.2 | +4.4% | strong-up | 🟠 Eaton electrical infra — RSI 63 |
| GNRC | $217.12 | +1.4% | +17.1% | +27.7% | 57.9 | +4.5% | strong-up | 🟡 Generac backup power — RSI 58 |
| ON | $93.30 | +13.2% | +67.6% | +50.0% | 75.5 ↑ | +20.7% | strong-up | 🔴 onsemi power chips — RSI 76, near ATH (-7%) |
| MOD | $237.06 | -3.3% | +17.3% | +34.1% | 51.9 | -0.6% | strong-up | 🟡 Modine thermal — RSI 52, +1356% 5Y |
| NEE | $96.51 | +3.0% | +4.9% | +10.2% | 63.2 | +3.7% | strong-up | 🟠 NextEra AI grid — RSI 63, near ATH (-1.2%) |
| AWK | $132.67 | -0.2% | -4.4% | +3.5% | 46.9 | -1.2% | down | 🟡 American Water — flat, not AI-levered |
Networking & Connectivity
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANET | $165.29 | -0.5% | +42.3% | +11.6% | 60.1 | +7.9% | strong-up | 🟠 Arista cloud networking — RSI 60, -8% from ATH |
| CSCO | $86.86 | -0.1% | +13.4% | +11.3% | 60.1 | +3.3% | strong-up | 🟠 Cisco AI refresh — RSI 60 |
| NOK | $11.30 | +2.0% | +42.0% | +79.7% | 73.3 ↑ | +15.1% | strong-up | 🔴 Nokia — RSI 73, at 52wk high (-0.09%), +128% 1Y |
| TEL | $234.33 | +9.7% | +15.2% | -1.0% | 67.6 | +12.0% | strong-up | 🟠 TE Connectivity — RSI 68 |
| APH | $143.72 | -4.0% | +20.6% | -3.7% | 52.1 | +1.3% | strong-up | 🟡 Amphenol connectors — RSI 52 |
Optical Interconnects (Hottest Subsector)
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRDO | $165.92 | +0.8% | +89.0% | +28.2% | 58.9 | +14.6% | up | 🟠 Credo coherent optics — RSI 59, +244% 1Y, death cross still in |
| LITE | $791.37 | -1.2% | +20.9% | +107.5% | 48.4 | -6.3% | strong-up | 🟢 Lumentum — RSI 48 healthy after +107% 3M run, -17.6% from ATH |
| CLS | $361.54 | +5.6% | +40.5% | +20.5% | 52.6 | +1.0% | strong-up | 🟠 Celestica AI server mfg — RSI 53, +284% 1Y |
| GLW | $153.05 | +0.7% | +19.1% | +48.9% | 47.1 | -5.5% | strong-up | 🟢 Corning fiber — RSI 47, healthy entry, +240% 1Y |
| NBIS | $135.51 | -9.7% | +46.9% | +42.8% | 49.2 | -3.7% | strong-up | 🟡 Nebius AI cloud — RSI 49, -19.7% from ATH |
Data Center REITs
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQIX | $1,076.40 | -0.4% | +11.7% | +31.0% | 62.0 | +2.0% | strong-up | 🟠 Equinix — RSI 62, -4.6% from ATH |
| DLR | $194.58 | -3.2% | +11.1% | +17.0% | 57.9 | +1.0% | strong-up | 🟠 Digital Realty — RSI 58, healthy after run |
| AMT | $178.40 | -2.3% | +5.8% | -0.6% | 52.0 | +1.2% | strong-down | 🟡 American Tower — death cross, not AI-levered |
Electrical Construction & EPC
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIX | $1,719.21 | +5.6% | +35.0% | +46.8% | 61.8 | +7.3% | strong-up | 🟠 Comfort Systems MEP — RSI 62, +299% 1Y |
| EME | $863.78 | +6.0% | +23.3% | +18.3% | 65.7 | +6.6% | strong-up | 🟠 EMCOR electrical construction — RSI 66 |
| PWR | $591.82 | +3.7% | +3.1% | +26.8% | 62.0 | +4.2% | strong-up | 🟠 Quanta power grid — RSI 62 |
| CAT | $817.87 | +1.6% | +22.8% | +23.2% | 65.1 | +5.0% | strong-up | 🟠 Caterpillar — RSI 65, data center site prep |
| VMC | $297.15 | +5.8% | +11.7% | -0.3% | 64.7 | +8.7% | strong-up | 🟡 Vulcan Materials — RSI 65 |
| MLM | $614.04 | -2.7% | +7.1% | -5.9% | 50.6 | 0.0% | strong-down | 🟡 Martin Marietta — death cross, neutral |
Energy for AI (Nuclear & Solar)
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | $305.71 | +11.7% | +2.4% | +6.5% | 55.3 | +5.6% | weak-up | 🟡 Constellation nuclear — RSI 55, -25.9% from ATH, death cross |
| VST | $158.20 | +2.2% | -2.2% | -6.3% | 51.7 | +2.0% | strong-down | 🟡 Vistra — RSI 52, -28% from ATH, death cross |
| TLN | $326.08 | -0.7% | +2.7% | -13.0% | 48.6 | +1.0% | strong-down | 🟡 Talen Energy — RSI 49, -27.7% from ATH, death cross |
| OKLO | $69.09 | +12.1% | +51.6% | -19.7% | 56.3 | +15.9% | weak-up | 🟡 Oklo +51.6% 30D bounce — but -64.4% from ATH, death cross |
| SMR | $9.58 | -11.1% | -20.0% | -51.7% | 36.5 ↓ | -10.8% | strong-down | 🔴 NuScale -83.3% from ATH. SMR thesis collapsing. |
| FSLR | $195.86 | +2.3% | +6.0% | -12.6% | 49.9 | +0.2% | strong-down | 🟡 First Solar — RSI 50, -31.5% from ATH, IRA tariff risk |
| WOLF | $24.15 | +25.3% | +31.7% | +23.9% | 67.3 | +32.4% | neutral | 🟡 Wolfspeed SiC — speculative bounce, no SMA200 yet |
Commodities / Mining for AI
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX | $58.21 | -13.9% | +6.8% | -10.4% | 39.1 ↓ | -10.0% | weak-down | 🟡 Freeport copper — RSI 39, -14% 7D, tariff risk |
| SCCO | $196.38 | +10.4% | +11.1% | +10.3% | 62.0 | +14.1% | strong-up | 🟠 Southern Copper — RSI 62, +142% 1Y |
| XYL | $128.85 | +6.0% | +6.4% | -7.7% | 60.7 | +5.4% | weak-up | 🟡 Xylem water tech — RSI 61 |
| ECL | $266.96 | -2.5% | +1.7% | -5.4% | 44.2 | -1.2% | down | 🟡 Ecolab data center water — RSI 44, neutral |
AI-Levered Software (in this scan context)
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSS | $9.27 | -4.1% | +28.6% | -12.7% | 50.2 | +4.3% | strong-up | 🟡 One Stop Systems AI edge — RSI 50 |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation / Extreme Oversold (RSI < 40)
- SMR (RSI 36.5, -83.3% from ATH, -51.7% 3M) — NuScale freefall continues. SMR commercialization timeline is years from any commercial cashflow. Avoid.
- FCX (RSI 39.1, -13.9% 7D, -10.4% 3M) — Freeport copper pulling back hard on tariff fears. Copper is essential for AI buildout — power wiring, cooling, packaging.
Oversold — Approaching Entry (RSI 40-55)
- ECL (RSI 44.2) — data center water treatment, neutral.
- AWK (RSI 46.9) — rate-regulated, not AI-levered.
- GLW (RSI 47.1, +48.9% 3M) — Corning healthy pullback after run.
- LITE (RSI 48.4, +107.5% 3M) — Lumentum digesting massive run, healthy RSI.
- TLN (RSI 48.6) — Talen, death cross.
- NBIS (RSI 49.2) — Nebius pullback after +47% 30D.
- FSLR (RSI 49.9) — First Solar facing policy risk.
- MLM (RSI 50.6) — Martin Marietta neutral, death cross.
- OSS (RSI 50.2) — speculative AI edge.
- VST (RSI 51.7) — Vistra death cross.
- AMT (RSI 52.0) — American Tower death cross.
- APH (RSI 52.1) — Amphenol healthy.
- MOD (RSI 51.9) — Modine thermal management, +1356% 5Y, healthy.
- CLS (RSI 52.6) — Celestica, +284% 1Y.
Healthy / Confirmed Uptrend (RSI 55-65)
Extended / Approaching Overbought (RSI 65-75)
Extreme / Overbought (RSI > 75)
Entry Zones
| Stock | Current | Entry Zone | RSI | 30D% | Action | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | $791.37 | $750-800 | 48.4 | +20.9% | ✅ Strong Buy | RSI 48 healthy after +107% 3M run. Optical interconnects essential for AI bandwidth. Best risk/reward in the scan. |
| GLW | $153.05 | $145-160 | 47.1 | +19.1% | ✅ Strong Buy | RSI 47, +48.9% 3M but pulled back. Corning fiber + glass — broad AI exposure |
| FCX | $58.21 | $54-60 | 39.1 ↓ | +6.8% | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 39 oversold, -13.9% 7D. Copper unavoidable in AI buildout. |
| NEE | $96.51 | $92-97 | 63.2 | +4.9% | 📈 Accumulate | AI grid utility, golden cross, near ATH. Steady RSI 63. |
| GNRC | $217.12 | $205-218 | 57.9 | +17.1% | 📈 Accumulate | Backup power for data centers. Golden cross, RSI 58. |
| MOD | $237.06 | $220-240 | 51.9 | +17.3% | 📈 Accumulate | Thermal management, RSI 52, golden cross, +1356% 5Y. |
| ETN | $413.07 | $390-415 | 63.2 | +20.2% | 📈 Accumulate | Eaton electrical infra — RSI 63 healthy. |
| VST | $158.20 | $145-160 | 51.7 | -2.2% | 🔍 Watch | Vistra -28% from ATH. Death cross — wait for SMA200 reclaim. |
| CEG | $305.71 | $285-310 | 55.3 | +2.4% | 🔍 Watch | Nuclear AI power thesis real — but death cross intact. |
| OKLO | $69.09 | — | 56.3 | +51.6% | ⏳ Waiting | +51.6% 30D bounce, but -64% from ATH and death cross. Wait for trend reclaim. |
| CRDO | $165.92 | Wait for $130-150 | 58.9 | +89.0% | ⏳ Waiting | +89% 30D — phenomenal thesis, terrible entry. Wait. |
| NOK | $11.30 | Wait for $9.50-10 | 73.3 ↑ | +42.0% | ⏳ Waiting | RSI 73 at 52wk high. Wait for pullback to SMA50 ($8.70). |
| ON | $93.30 | Wait for $77-85 | 75.5 ↑ | +67.6% | ⏳ Waiting | RSI 76 most extreme — wait for SMA50 ($69) bounce. |
| SMR | $9.58 | — | 36.5 ↓ | -20.0% | ❌ Don't Buy | -83% from ATH. Strong-down. SMR commercialization broken. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ON | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | RSI 76, +67.6% 30D — most overbought in scan |
| NOK | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | RSI 73 at 52wk high, +42% 30D — wait for pullback |
| CRDO | 🟠 | ⚠️ Avoid | +89% 30D parabolic optical play — great thesis, wrong entry |
| EQIX | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 62, +31% 3M — data center REIT, hold winners |
| ANET | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 60, +42.3% 30D — cloud networking monopoly |
| VRT | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 68 — cooling picks-and-shovels king |
| ETN | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 63 — electrical infrastructure |
| FIX | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 62, +35% 30D, +47% 3M — MEP construction monster |
| EME | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 66, +23.3% 30D — electrical construction |
| CAT | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 65, +22.8% 30D — data center site prep |
| LITE | 🟢 | ✅ Strong Buy | RSI 48 after +107% 3M — best risk/reward |
| GLW | 🟢 | ✅ Strong Buy | RSI 47 healthy — fiber + glass broad AI exposure |
| FCX | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 39 oversold — AI buildout = copper demand |
| NEE | 🟠 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 63 — AI grid utility, golden cross |
| MOD | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 52, thermal management, +1356% 5Y |
| GNRC | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 58 — backup power for data centers |
| SMR | 🔴 | ❌ Don't Buy | -83% from ATH, strong-down, RSI 37 |
| FSLR | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | RSI 50, -31.5% from ATH — solar policy risk |
| CEG | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | RSI 55, death cross — nuclear thesis right but technicals mixed |
| OKLO | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | +51.6% 30D bounce but -64% from ATH, death cross |
| WOLF | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | SiC bounce — speculative, no SMA200 yet |
Cross-Theme Analysis
Three sub-themes are simultaneously breaking out on 2026-04-28:
1. Cooling/HVAC Supercycle
- VRT +75.6% 3M (RSI 68, +310% 1Y) — Vertiv is the picks-and-shovels king. Liquid cooling for AI racks.
- MOD +34.1% 3M (RSI 52, +1356% 5Y) — Modine thermal management. Underbid but quietly delivering.
- TT +22.9% 3M (RSI 69) — Trane HVAC. Near ATH.
- AI rack power densities are climbing past 100kW; air cooling is breaking. Liquid + immersion cooling has 3-5 years of capacity-constrained runway.
2. Networking/Connectivity Bid
- NOK +79.7% 3M (RSI 73, at 52wk high) — Nokia telecom infra surge.
- ANET +42.3% 30D (RSI 60) — Arista cloud networking.
- TEL +15.2% 30D (RSI 68) — TE Connectivity connectors.
- CSCO +13.4% 30D (RSI 60) — Cisco AI refresh cycle.
- CRDO +89% 30D — Credo coherent optics (parabolic, don't chase).
- The bandwidth between GPUs is the constraint nobody talked about a year ago. Now it's the trade.
3. Electrical Construction & Site Prep
- FIX +46.8% 3M (RSI 62, +299% 1Y) — Comfort Systems MEP construction.
- EME +18.3% 3M (RSI 66) — EMCOR electrical contractor.
- PWR +26.8% 3M (RSI 62) — Quanta power grid construction.
- CAT +23.2% 3M (RSI 65) — Caterpillar earthmoving for data center sites.
- These are 2-4 year backlog businesses now. Once contracted, the revenue is locked.
Counter-trend: The Specifics Diverging from Breadth
- SMR -51.7% 3M, -83% from ATH — Pure-play SMR thesis broken on commercialization timeline.
- FCX -13.9% 7D, RSI 39 — Copper miners pulling back on tariff fears, even though copper is unavoidable for AI buildout. Asymmetric setup.
- AMT -3.3% vs SMA200, death cross — Cell tower REITs not sharing the data center REIT bid.
What's NOT Working Yet
What Changed vs 2026-04-26
Two days later, the picture mostly extended in the same direction with two notable rotations:
- CRDO cooled from RSI 78 → 59 while still up +89% 30D (was +87.7%). The 30D return barely moved but the daily extreme rolled off. This is the right shape for sustained leadership.
- ON broke out further — from RSI 70 to 75.5, +67.6% 30D (was +21.0% 30D 2 days ago in some readings — the move accelerated on the new latest data). onsemi is now the most overbought reading in the scan.
- NOK extended to RSI 73 with +42% 30D (was +24% 30D).
- CAT moved up — RSI 65, +22.8% 30D (was +15.8% 30D).
- CRDO at RSI 59 (was 78) and LITE at RSI 48 (was 58) — the optical pair is digesting the parabolic 3M moves at healthy levels. LITE remains the best risk/reward in the scan.
- FCX rolled over — RSI 39 (was 44.1), -13.9% 7D (was -13.8%). The copper miner pullback is deepening rather than recovering.
- SMR extended its breakdown — -11.1% 7D, -20% 30D, RSI 36 (was 36.5). The SMR thesis continues to deteriorate.
- CLS moved to RSI 53 from 74 with +40.5% 30D — the digestion is setting up a re-entry.
- VRT, TT, ANET, ETN, FIX, EME, MOD, EQIX, DLR all sustained — the breadth is real and durable.
Net read: the AI infrastructure trade is rotating internally rather than topping. Names that were RSI 75-80 cooled to 50-65 while newer names (ON, NOK) entered the overbought list. The dispersion within the theme is healthy, suggesting the trade has 1-2 more quarters of runway before mean reversion. The setup of the day is GLW + LITE + FCX + MOD — high-quality AI infrastructure exposure at non-extreme RSIs, with the rest of the basket extended.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| LITE at RSI 48 with +107.5% 3M | The cleanest entry into AI optical interconnects — uncommon to see RSI healthy after a doubling |
| ON +67.6% 30D, RSI 75.5 | Power semis is the new chase — wait for pullback, don't initiate here |
| NOK at 52wk high (-0.09%) with RSI 73 | Telecom infra rerating — Nokia +128% 1Y on AI backbone thesis |
| FCX RSI 39 vs SCCO RSI 62 | Copper miners diverging — Freeport pulling back, Southern Copper still extending |
| CRDO digestion (RSI 78 → 59 in 2 days) | Healthy pullback in parabolic optical play — entry zone setting up at $130-150 |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Chasing CRDO at RSI 78 | Parabolic optical names need pullback to ~SMA50 before entry |
| Buying SMR on the dip | SMR commercialization is a 5-10 year story — not a tradable bottom |
| Treating CEG/VST/TLN as the same thesis as NEE | Existing nuclear capacity (NEE, CEG) ≠ pure-play power utilities mid-rerate |
Open Questions
- Will FCX and SCCO converge — does FCX catch up, or does SCCO roll over to FCX level?
- Is LITE truly the best risk/reward, or has the optical theme already played out for 2026?
- Will WOLF (SiC, no SMA200 yet) see a bear-trap rip or fail again?
- When do CEG / VST / TLN reclaim SMA200 and get back in trend?
- Is ON's +67.6% 30D the late-cycle blowoff or the start of a power-semi supercycle?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.