• Type: refresh (subtype: eow-narrative-refresh)
• event_id: 2026-06-26-memory-supercycle-eow-vwap-froth-narrative-refresh
• Source: 2026-06-26-ai-scan (froth table: MU +151.9%, WDC +138.1%, STX +128.5% vs VWAP); 2026-06-26-optical-supply-chain (SNDK +216.4% vs VWAP); prior log entries (06-25 MU FQ3 print, 06-25 Asia-correction watch)
• Tape: WDC −11.0% 7D / STX −7.9% 7D — both pulled back to or below their SMA20 lines for the first time since the parabolic run; MU +1.9% 7D (held above SMA20). RSI cooled to mid-upper-40s on WDC/STX, upper-50s on MU. Golden crosses intact across all names. No deceleration signal, no tier bifurcation, no hyperscaler capex cut appeared in the flow.
• Framing shift — VWAP froth as the entry gate: RSI 48–59 reads "digesting not overbought" but the 06-26 froth scan places the cohort 120–152% above its lifetime volume-weighted average buyer. This is the operative caution for new money: VWAP froth maps where the average participant in this cycle bought — well below current prices — meaning any reversal finds no natural volume support for a very deep stretch below. The RSI entry-gate (below 60) is not sufficient at these VWAP gaps; a VWAP compression event is the correct trigger for new long exposure.
• Dispersion gate (NVIDIA halve-a-mid-tier): NOT triggered. Commodity DRAM and HBM still running together per cohort reads.
• Asia-correction entry-flag (ARMED per 06-25 log): UNFIRED at EOW. Asia tape settled flat at week close; the claimed −8% Kospi did not materialize in settled data. Watch carries into next session.
• Effect on thesis: HOLD / do-not-chase; VWAP froth explicitly added to Watch for as the new operative entry-sizing metric. No posture change. No key_ticker change.
• Next gates: SK Hynix Nasdaq ADR debut (~2026-07-10); TrendForce mid-July contract-price print; AMD/Intel Q2 prints (late July).

2026-06-25 (eve) — Asia-correction front-run watch ARMED (unverified live session)

• Type: watch (subtype: monitor — no thesis shift)
• event_id: 2026-06-25-asia-led-global-correction-memory-front-run-watch
• Source: @aleabitoreddit tweet 2026-06-26 00:44Z (2026-06-25-asia-led-global-correction-memory-front-run-watch); verification fetch of 005930.KS/000660.KS/TSM/^KS11/^N225/^TWII/EWY/EWJ/EWT (2026-06-25 PT, intraday).
• Claim: social report of a violent Asia-tech sell-off — Kospi −8.18% (Samsung/SK Hynix), Nikkei −4.8%, TWSE −3.82%; SOI/RKLB −30-40%. Heuristic offered: high-beta gets hit harder, front-runs index drops, recovers earlier.
• Verification: NOT confirmed. Freshest settled bars are 06-24 and show Asia flat-to-up (Samsung +0.90%, SK Hynix +2.25%, Kospi +1.08%). The −8% Kospi is the live 06-26 KST session (~45 min after open), unsettled in yfinance. Indices are −7-8% off 52wk highs (pullback real), but −8%-in-a-day is not in settled data.
• Effect on thesis: NONE — posture unchanged (HOLD/do-not-chase). This arms a conditional entry-flag watch: IF settled Asia closes confirm a sharp memory-cohort drawdown, the high-beta front-run would mark the first clean MU/SNDK flag-back-to-SMA20 as the long-awaited entry (not the knife). Re-check Samsung/SK Hynix/Kospi settled closes next session before treating as live.
• Per-ticker: MU / SNDK — no change; armed watch for an entry-flag setup pending verified Asia drawdown. TSM — same beta-proxy watch.