Etf Universe

Scan

Etf Universe

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 62 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-07-etf-universe.md

2026-07-11 ETF Universe Scan — Overbought Sleeve Cools On Time Not Price, SOXL Trend-Flips Weak-Down

Broad-market ETFs are still healthy and unremarkable — QQQM/QQQ/VOO/VTI all RSI 53-60, comfortably golden-crossed, nothing extended. The real story is the overbought sleeve from the prior scan resolving the way the desk wants: XBI, LABU, and JETS all cooled 12-16 RSI points while barely giving back price, the same "resting via time, not a price break" pattern already validated in the healthcare-scan cut of this corpus. The one structural flag: SOXL trend-flipped to weak-down while still sitting +111.6% above its 200-day — extension without momentum, the same distribution signature the monster scan has been flagging on NVDA/AVGO. Gold continues to bleed (GLD/GDX both weaker), and 13 new too-young tickers joined the universe this cycle with no baseline yet.

Data as-of 2026-07-10 close (QTUM's feed is stale at 2026-07-09 — noted where relevant). Source: summaries/etf-ideas.json, read directly — no computed math. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-etf-universe (2026-07-06 close).


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Broad market steady; the prior scan's overbought trio (XBI/LABU/JETS) cooled cleanly; SOXL trend-flipped weak-down while still deeply extended
Leaders IWM (RSI 54.2, +13.4% vs SMA200, small-cap uptrend intact); QTUM (RSI 48.9, +26.9% vs SMA200, not extended — data 07-09)
Cooling from overbought XBI (RSI 77.0→65.5), LABU (RSI 77.7→63.7, downgraded parabolic→uptrend), JETS (RSI 74.4→58.1) — all gave back little price
Structural flag SOXL trend-flipped `weak-down` while +111.6% vs SMA200 — momentum broke, extension didn't unwind
Laggards GDX (RSI 42.4, collapse, -13.6% vs SMA200); GLD (RSI 42.9, pullback, deathCross); TAN (RSI 38.3, weak-down, vs SMA200 shrinking to +1.1%)
Key insight The prior scan's biotech/airline breakout names are digesting through time, not price — bullish continuation pattern, not a top

What's Going On

Broad-market ETFs haven't moved much: QQQM ($298.72, RSI 53.2), QQQ ($725.51, RSI 53.1), VOO ($693.86, RSI 60), and VTI ($372.69, RSI 59.7) are all golden-crossed, 9-14% above their 200-day, and unremarkable — the same "healthy, not extended" read as the prior scan. IWM is the standout in the broad group, holding its small-cap leadership at RSI 54.2 and +13.4% vs SMA200, though its 30D pace slowed from +5.5% to +2.16% since the last scan.

The more interesting move is underneath: the three names the prior scan flagged as overbought or breakout — XBI, LABU, JETS — all cooled 12-16 RSI points (77.0→65.5, 77.7→63.7, 74.4→58.1 respectively) while barely giving back price (XBI actually round-tripped flat, LABU gave back about 4%, JETS gave back about 4%). LABU's regime downgraded from parabolic to plain uptrend. This is the same digestion-via-time pattern already validated elsewhere in this corpus (healthcare-scan's UNH/CVS/JNJ cooldown 07-07) — RSI compression without a real breakdown reads as continuation, not a top.

SOXL is the scan's real tell. The 3x leveraged semis ETF sits at +192.26, RSI 47.1, but its trend field has flipped to weak-down while it's still +111.6% above its 200-day and 3M is still +138.65%. That combination — deep extension with broken short-term momentum — is the same distribution signature the 2026-07-07 monster scan flagged on NVDA and AVGO. Gold continues to weaken: GLD (RSI 42.9, deathCross, -8.2% vs SMA200) and GDX (RSI 42.4, collapse regime, -13.6% vs SMA200) both deepened. TAN's golden cross is nominally intact but its cushion above SMA200 shrank from +6.3% to +1.1% — close to losing that support entirely. Thirteen new tickers (RAM, SPCH, SSPC, SPCQ, MRVU, MVLL, CDNG, FOMG, ENTL, CQTM, WQTM, DISK, LAZR) joined the universe this cycle; all but MVLL are tagged too-young with no trend classification yet.


What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-07 → 2026-07-11)

Change Read
XBI/LABU/JETS all cooled 12-16 RSI points Confirms the "resting via time, not price" digestion pattern already seen sector-wide; not a breakdown
SOXL trend-flipped to `weak-down` while +111.6% vs SMA200 (was "pullback" regime, no trend-flip noted last scan) Extension without momentum — treat as a heat signal, not a buyable dip, echoes the NVDA/AVGO flip in the monster scan
KWEB/FXI both improved (RSI 48.5→55.3 and 38.8→50.5) China-linked ETFs showing the first real bounce in this corpus in weeks — still `collapse`/`downtrend` regime, not confirmed
TAN's cushion above SMA200 shrank from +6.3% to +1.1% Golden cross nominally intact but close to failing; watch for a flip
GDX deepened further into `collapse` (-9.9%→-13.6% vs SMA200) Gold-miner weakness continuing, no stabilization signal yet
13 new too-young tickers added to the universe No baseline; grade on the next scan or two

How To Read The Board

Regime labels (uptrend/pullback/collapse/breakout/too-young) describe each fund's structural state, not a trade recommendation. A cooling RSI inside an intact golden cross reads as digestion; a cooling RSI alongside a trend-flip to weak-down (SOXL) reads as distribution — the difference matters more than the RSI number itself. Leveraged funds (SOXL, LABU, TQQQ, SQQQ, TZA, etc.) carry structural decay on top of whatever direction they're trending; treat any leveraged name's extension as a heat gauge, never an entry signal.


Price Table

Broad Market

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D 3M vsSMA200 Regime Note
IWM $295.99 54.2 -1.03% +2.16% +11.93% +13.4% uptrend Small-cap leadership, cooled from +5.5% 30D
VOO $693.86 60.0 +0.65% +2.60% +10.33% +9.3% uptrend Healthy, not extended
VTI $372.69 59.7 +0.40% +2.60% +10.36% +9.5% uptrend Tracks VOO closely
QQQM $298.72 53.2 +0.18% +1.37% +17.66% +14.0% uptrend Flat, resting
QQQ $725.51 53.1 +0.20% +1.28% +17.64% +14.0% uptrend Tracks QQQM
SMH $611.03 51.1 -0.60% +0.26% +37.82% +41.1% uptrend Semis ETF, flat 30D
VGT $118.08 54.0 +0.60% +1.85% +24.73% +19.2% uptrend Mega-cap tech basing
XLK / FTEC $185.78 / $282.07 52.9 / 53.9 +0.26% / +0.66% +1.52% / +1.85% +27.74% / +24.82% +21.9% / +19.3% uptrend Track VGT closely

Leveraged / Inverse (decay risk — heat gauge only)

Ticker Price RSI 30D 3M vsSMA200 Trend Regime Note
SOXL $192.26 47.1 -14.17% +138.65% +111.6% weak-down pullback Trend-flipped; extended but momentum broke
TQQQ $77.03 51.5 +1.57% +52.41% +33.0% strong-up pullback 3x QQQ, healthy
LABU $293.84 63.7 +68.4% +60.83% +76.5% strong-up uptrend Cooled from parabolic, still decay risk
TECL $211.70 50.9 +0.82% +88.06% +53.3% strong-up pullback Resting after a big 3M run
TNA $71.51 52.6 +5.30% +33.64% +33.1% strong-up uptrend Small-cap 3x, tracks IWM strength
QLD / SSO / SPXL / UPRO $93.70 / $68.72 / $279.18 / $146.16 52.1-58.8 +1.7 to +6.7% +19.6 to +34.7% +15.7 to +24.3% strong-up uptrend 2x/3x broad-market bulls, all healthy, track VOO/QQQ
FNGU $28.64 55.4 +6.31% +41.01% +12.8% strong-up pullback 3x FANG, healthy
NUGT $116.56 40.9 -7.84% -46.29% -36.2% strong-down collapse 2x gold miners bull — mirrors GDX weakness
DUST $62.70 55.0 +1.64% +44.84% -6.6% weak-up downtrend 2x gold miners bear — up on GDX weakness
SQQQ / SOXS / TZA / FNGD / TECS 40-45 -6 to -17% -29 to -82% -34 to -90% strong-down collapse Inverse funds pinned near 5yr lows — mirror confirms uptrend intact

Sector / Thematic

Ticker Price RSI 30D vsSMA200 Regime Note
XBI $159.03 65.5 +19.92% +27.2% breakout Cooled from RSI 77.0, price roughly flat
JETS $32.09 58.1 +10.77% +18.1% uptrend Cooled from RSI 74.4/breakout
QTUM $155.57 48.9 +3.20% +26.9% uptrend Not extended; data 07-09
WCLD $33.86 62.1 +10.40% +7.4% uptrend Still deathCross despite the bounce
CLOU / SKYY $23.75 / $139.77 59.0 / 59.0 +4.40% / +4.48% +8.9% / +10.5% uptrend Cloud/SaaS steady
IGV $92.41 51.8 +1.66% -4.2% downtrend Deathcross, lagging peers
GLD $377.01 42.9 -2.41% -8.2% pullback DeathCross, still cooling
GDX $75.53 42.4 -2.82% -13.6% collapse Continued weakness, no basing signal
TAN $54.96 38.3 -11.78% +1.1% pullback GoldenCross cushion down to +1.1%, near failing
ICLN $19.25 40.4 -6.91% +4.7% pullback Solar-adjacent, similar weakness to TAN
URA $42.97 40.7 -4.15% -12.8% collapse Uranium miners still weak
KWEB $26.38 55.3 -0.72% -18.4% collapse RSI improved sharply (48.5→55.3), still deathCrossed
FXI $33.48 50.5 -3.38% -10.3% downtrend RSI improved (38.8→50.5), regime unchanged
DRAM $63.04 48.2 -3.19% n/a too-young Memory-thesis proxy, +87.9% 3M, small pullback
EWZ / INDA $35.93 / $49.30 59.7 / 52.8 +4.21% / +3.16% +4.5% / -3.9% pullback / basing Broad EM, unremarkable

Income / Bonds

Ticker Price RSI 30D vsSMA200 Regime
JEPQ, JEPI, SCHD, VYM, QYLD, XYLD, DOGG $18-61 53-70 0 to +4% +3-11% uptrend/basing/breakout — low-drama, all basing or grinding up
HYG $79.71 55.7 +0.18% +1.6% basing | Credit steady
LQD $107.46 37.9 -1.14% -0.6% basing | Rate-sensitive, oversold-ish but flat

(New/too-young this cycle: RAM, SPCH, SSPC, SPCQ, MRVU, CDNG, FOMG, ENTL, CQTM, WQTM, DISK, LAZR — no trend classification yet; MVLL has data: $34.55, RSI 43.2, weak-down, +110.9% vs SMA200, still digesting a sharp -36.3% 30D drawdown from a much higher base.)


Tier Analysis

Healthy uptrend, not extendedQQQM, QQQ, VOO, VTI, IWM, SMH, VGT, XLK/FTEC, CLOU, SKYY, EWZ. RSI 51-60 across the board, nothing to chase or fade.

Cooling from overbought (digestion, not breakdown)XBI, LABU, JETS all dropped 12-16 RSI points while price held. Same pattern as the healthcare-scan cooldown elsewhere in this corpus; treat as continuation, wait for the next RSI print before re-rating.

Distribution flagSOXL: trend-flipped weak-down while still +111.6% vs SMA200 and +138.65% 3M. This is the leveraged-ETF mirror of the NVDA/AVGO structural break already flagged in the 2026-07-07 monster scan.

Weakening / no stabilizationGLD, GDX, TAN, ICLN, URA all deepened or held near multi-week lows. GDX and URA remain in outright collapse.

Early stabilization, unconfirmedKWEB and FXI both posted meaningful RSI recoveries (48.5→55.3, 38.8→50.5) while regime tags (collapse/downtrend) haven't flipped yet. Watch for a golden cross before treating as a real turn.

Too-young / no baseline — 13 new tickers, mostly ungraded; QTUM's feed is two sessions stale (07-09).


Entry Zones

Ticker Price Zone RSI vsSMA200 Setup
QTUM $155.57 Watch for feed refresh 48.9 +26.9% Cleanest uptrend in the thematic sleeve, not extended — confirm fresher data before acting
KWEB / FXI $26.38 / $33.48 Watch for golden-cross flip 55.3 / 50.5 -18.4% / -10.3% Sharpest RSI recoveries this cycle; still death-crossed, don't chase the bounce alone
XBI / JETS $159.03 / $32.09 Wait for a pullback entry 65.5 / 58.1 +27.2% / +18.1% Cooled cleanly from overbought; a further RSI dip toward 50-55 would be the next entry, not current levels
TAN $54.96 Watch SMA200 hold 38.3 +1.1% Golden cross cushion nearly gone; a close below SMA200 would flip the trend

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD QQQM, QQQ, VOO, VTI, IWM, SMH, VGT, XLK, FTEC, CLOU, SKYY Healthy uptrends, not extended, no action needed
🔍 WATCH XBI, JETS, LABU, KWEB, FXI, TAN, QTUM Cooling from overbought or early-stage stabilization — confirm before entry
⚠️ CAUTION SOXL Trend-flipped weak-down while still massively extended — decay risk compounding on a broken short-term trend
❌ AVOID GDX, URA, GLD Continued collapse/pullback, no stabilization signal
🔍 NO BASELINE RAM, SPCH, SSPC, SPCQ, MRVU, CDNG, FOMG, ENTL, CQTM, WQTM, DISK, LAZR, MVLL Too-young or freshly volatile; needs at least one more scan cycle

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
SOXL trend If the weak-down flip deepens rather than resolves, it's a leading tell for the whole semis complex — cross-reference against the monster scan's NVDA/AVGO break
TAN's SMA200 hold Cushion is down to +1.1%; a close below SMA200 would be the first real trend-down confirmation in the solar sleeve
KWEB/FXI golden-cross status Both posted the sharpest RSI recoveries in the universe this cycle; a golden-cross flip would upgrade these from "bounce" to "trend change"
QTUM feed freshness Two sessions stale (07-09) — confirm the latest print before treating the +26.9% vs SMA200 read as current
New too-young cohort 13 fresh tickers need a scan or two of history before any tier assignment is meaningful
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.