Etf Universe
Etf Universe
2026-07-11 ETF Universe Scan — Overbought Sleeve Cools On Time Not Price, SOXL Trend-Flips Weak-Down
Broad-market ETFs are still healthy and unremarkable — QQQM/QQQ/VOO/VTI all RSI 53-60, comfortably golden-crossed, nothing extended. The real story is the overbought sleeve from the prior scan resolving the way the desk wants: XBI, LABU, and JETS all cooled 12-16 RSI points while barely giving back price, the same "resting via time, not a price break" pattern already validated in the healthcare-scan cut of this corpus. The one structural flag: SOXL trend-flipped to weak-down while still sitting +111.6% above its 200-day — extension without momentum, the same distribution signature the monster scan has been flagging on NVDA/AVGO. Gold continues to bleed (GLD/GDX both weaker), and 13 new too-young tickers joined the universe this cycle with no baseline yet.
Data as-of 2026-07-10 close (QTUM's feed is stale at 2026-07-09 — noted where relevant). Source: summaries/etf-ideas.json, read directly — no computed math. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-etf-universe (2026-07-06 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broad market steady; the prior scan's overbought trio (XBI/LABU/JETS) cooled cleanly; SOXL trend-flipped weak-down while still deeply extended |
| Leaders | IWM (RSI 54.2, +13.4% vs SMA200, small-cap uptrend intact); QTUM (RSI 48.9, +26.9% vs SMA200, not extended — data 07-09) |
| Cooling from overbought | XBI (RSI 77.0→65.5), LABU (RSI 77.7→63.7, downgraded parabolic→uptrend), JETS (RSI 74.4→58.1) — all gave back little price |
| Structural flag | SOXL trend-flipped `weak-down` while +111.6% vs SMA200 — momentum broke, extension didn't unwind |
| Laggards | GDX (RSI 42.4, collapse, -13.6% vs SMA200); GLD (RSI 42.9, pullback, deathCross); TAN (RSI 38.3, weak-down, vs SMA200 shrinking to +1.1%) |
| Key insight | The prior scan's biotech/airline breakout names are digesting through time, not price — bullish continuation pattern, not a top |
What's Going On
Broad-market ETFs haven't moved much: QQQM ($298.72, RSI 53.2), QQQ ($725.51, RSI 53.1), VOO ($693.86, RSI 60), and VTI ($372.69, RSI 59.7) are all golden-crossed, 9-14% above their 200-day, and unremarkable — the same "healthy, not extended" read as the prior scan. IWM is the standout in the broad group, holding its small-cap leadership at RSI 54.2 and +13.4% vs SMA200, though its 30D pace slowed from +5.5% to +2.16% since the last scan.
The more interesting move is underneath: the three names the prior scan flagged as overbought or breakout — XBI, LABU, JETS — all cooled 12-16 RSI points (77.0→65.5, 77.7→63.7, 74.4→58.1 respectively) while barely giving back price (XBI actually round-tripped flat, LABU gave back about 4%, JETS gave back about 4%). LABU's regime downgraded from parabolic to plain uptrend. This is the same digestion-via-time pattern already validated elsewhere in this corpus (healthcare-scan's UNH/CVS/JNJ cooldown 07-07) — RSI compression without a real breakdown reads as continuation, not a top.
SOXL is the scan's real tell. The 3x leveraged semis ETF sits at +192.26, RSI 47.1, but its trend field has flipped to weak-down while it's still +111.6% above its 200-day and 3M is still +138.65%. That combination — deep extension with broken short-term momentum — is the same distribution signature the 2026-07-07 monster scan flagged on NVDA and AVGO. Gold continues to weaken: GLD (RSI 42.9, deathCross, -8.2% vs SMA200) and GDX (RSI 42.4, collapse regime, -13.6% vs SMA200) both deepened. TAN's golden cross is nominally intact but its cushion above SMA200 shrank from +6.3% to +1.1% — close to losing that support entirely. Thirteen new tickers (RAM, SPCH, SSPC, SPCQ, MRVU, MVLL, CDNG, FOMG, ENTL, CQTM, WQTM, DISK, LAZR) joined the universe this cycle; all but MVLL are tagged too-young with no trend classification yet.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-07 → 2026-07-11)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| XBI/LABU/JETS all cooled 12-16 RSI points | Confirms the "resting via time, not price" digestion pattern already seen sector-wide; not a breakdown |
| SOXL trend-flipped to `weak-down` while +111.6% vs SMA200 (was "pullback" regime, no trend-flip noted last scan) | Extension without momentum — treat as a heat signal, not a buyable dip, echoes the NVDA/AVGO flip in the monster scan |
| KWEB/FXI both improved (RSI 48.5→55.3 and 38.8→50.5) | China-linked ETFs showing the first real bounce in this corpus in weeks — still `collapse`/`downtrend` regime, not confirmed |
| TAN's cushion above SMA200 shrank from +6.3% to +1.1% | Golden cross nominally intact but close to failing; watch for a flip |
| GDX deepened further into `collapse` (-9.9%→-13.6% vs SMA200) | Gold-miner weakness continuing, no stabilization signal yet |
| 13 new too-young tickers added to the universe | No baseline; grade on the next scan or two |
How To Read The Board
Regime labels (uptrend/pullback/collapse/breakout/too-young) describe each fund's structural state, not a trade recommendation. A cooling RSI inside an intact golden cross reads as digestion; a cooling RSI alongside a trend-flip to weak-down (SOXL) reads as distribution — the difference matters more than the RSI number itself. Leveraged funds (SOXL, LABU, TQQQ, SQQQ, TZA, etc.) carry structural decay on top of whatever direction they're trending; treat any leveraged name's extension as a heat gauge, never an entry signal.
Price Table
Broad Market
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | 3M | vsSMA200 | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | $295.99 | 54.2 | -1.03% | +2.16% | +11.93% | +13.4% | uptrend | Small-cap leadership, cooled from +5.5% 30D |
| VOO | $693.86 | 60.0 | +0.65% | +2.60% | +10.33% | +9.3% | uptrend | Healthy, not extended |
| VTI | $372.69 | 59.7 | +0.40% | +2.60% | +10.36% | +9.5% | uptrend | Tracks VOO closely |
| QQQM | $298.72 | 53.2 | +0.18% | +1.37% | +17.66% | +14.0% | uptrend | Flat, resting |
| QQQ | $725.51 | 53.1 | +0.20% | +1.28% | +17.64% | +14.0% | uptrend | Tracks QQQM |
| SMH | $611.03 | 51.1 | -0.60% | +0.26% | +37.82% | +41.1% | uptrend | Semis ETF, flat 30D |
| VGT | $118.08 | 54.0 | +0.60% | +1.85% | +24.73% | +19.2% | uptrend | Mega-cap tech basing |
| XLK / FTEC | $185.78 / $282.07 | 52.9 / 53.9 | +0.26% / +0.66% | +1.52% / +1.85% | +27.74% / +24.82% | +21.9% / +19.3% | uptrend | Track VGT closely |
Leveraged / Inverse (decay risk — heat gauge only)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 30D | 3M | vsSMA200 | Trend | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXL | $192.26 | 47.1 | -14.17% | +138.65% | +111.6% | weak-down | pullback | Trend-flipped; extended but momentum broke |
| TQQQ | $77.03 | 51.5 | +1.57% | +52.41% | +33.0% | strong-up | pullback | 3x QQQ, healthy |
| LABU | $293.84 | 63.7 | +68.4% | +60.83% | +76.5% | strong-up | uptrend | Cooled from parabolic, still decay risk |
| TECL | $211.70 | 50.9 | +0.82% | +88.06% | +53.3% | strong-up | pullback | Resting after a big 3M run |
| TNA | $71.51 | 52.6 | +5.30% | +33.64% | +33.1% | strong-up | uptrend | Small-cap 3x, tracks IWM strength |
| QLD / SSO / SPXL / UPRO | $93.70 / $68.72 / $279.18 / $146.16 | 52.1-58.8 | +1.7 to +6.7% | +19.6 to +34.7% | +15.7 to +24.3% | strong-up | uptrend | 2x/3x broad-market bulls, all healthy, track VOO/QQQ |
| FNGU | $28.64 | 55.4 | +6.31% | +41.01% | +12.8% | strong-up | pullback | 3x FANG, healthy |
| NUGT | $116.56 | 40.9 | -7.84% | -46.29% | -36.2% | strong-down | collapse | 2x gold miners bull — mirrors GDX weakness |
| DUST | $62.70 | 55.0 | +1.64% | +44.84% | -6.6% | weak-up | downtrend | 2x gold miners bear — up on GDX weakness |
| SQQQ / SOXS / TZA / FNGD / TECS | — | 40-45 | -6 to -17% | -29 to -82% | -34 to -90% | strong-down | collapse | Inverse funds pinned near 5yr lows — mirror confirms uptrend intact |
Sector / Thematic
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 30D | vsSMA200 | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XBI | $159.03 | 65.5 | +19.92% | +27.2% | breakout | Cooled from RSI 77.0, price roughly flat |
| JETS | $32.09 | 58.1 | +10.77% | +18.1% | uptrend | Cooled from RSI 74.4/breakout |
| QTUM | $155.57 | 48.9 | +3.20% | +26.9% | uptrend | Not extended; data 07-09 |
| WCLD | $33.86 | 62.1 | +10.40% | +7.4% | uptrend | Still deathCross despite the bounce |
| CLOU / SKYY | $23.75 / $139.77 | 59.0 / 59.0 | +4.40% / +4.48% | +8.9% / +10.5% | uptrend | Cloud/SaaS steady |
| IGV | $92.41 | 51.8 | +1.66% | -4.2% | downtrend | Deathcross, lagging peers |
| GLD | $377.01 | 42.9 | -2.41% | -8.2% | pullback | DeathCross, still cooling |
| GDX | $75.53 | 42.4 | -2.82% | -13.6% | collapse | Continued weakness, no basing signal |
| TAN | $54.96 | 38.3 | -11.78% | +1.1% | pullback | GoldenCross cushion down to +1.1%, near failing |
| ICLN | $19.25 | 40.4 | -6.91% | +4.7% | pullback | Solar-adjacent, similar weakness to TAN |
| URA | $42.97 | 40.7 | -4.15% | -12.8% | collapse | Uranium miners still weak |
| KWEB | $26.38 | 55.3 | -0.72% | -18.4% | collapse | RSI improved sharply (48.5→55.3), still deathCrossed |
| FXI | $33.48 | 50.5 | -3.38% | -10.3% | downtrend | RSI improved (38.8→50.5), regime unchanged |
| DRAM | $63.04 | 48.2 | -3.19% | n/a | too-young | Memory-thesis proxy, +87.9% 3M, small pullback |
| EWZ / INDA | $35.93 / $49.30 | 59.7 / 52.8 | +4.21% / +3.16% | +4.5% / -3.9% | pullback / basing | Broad EM, unremarkable |
Income / Bonds
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 30D | vsSMA200 | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEPQ, JEPI, SCHD, VYM, QYLD, XYLD, DOGG | $18-61 | 53-70 | 0 to +4% | +3-11% | uptrend/basing/breakout — low-drama, all basing or grinding up |
| HYG | $79.71 | 55.7 | +0.18% | +1.6% | basing | Credit steady |
| LQD | $107.46 | 37.9 | -1.14% | -0.6% | basing | Rate-sensitive, oversold-ish but flat |
(New/too-young this cycle: RAM, SPCH, SSPC, SPCQ, MRVU, CDNG, FOMG, ENTL, CQTM, WQTM, DISK, LAZR — no trend classification yet; MVLL has data: $34.55, RSI 43.2, weak-down, +110.9% vs SMA200, still digesting a sharp -36.3% 30D drawdown from a much higher base.)
Tier Analysis
Healthy uptrend, not extended — QQQM, QQQ, VOO, VTI, IWM, SMH, VGT, XLK/FTEC, CLOU, SKYY, EWZ. RSI 51-60 across the board, nothing to chase or fade.
Cooling from overbought (digestion, not breakdown) — XBI, LABU, JETS all dropped 12-16 RSI points while price held. Same pattern as the healthcare-scan cooldown elsewhere in this corpus; treat as continuation, wait for the next RSI print before re-rating.
Distribution flag — SOXL: trend-flipped weak-down while still +111.6% vs SMA200 and +138.65% 3M. This is the leveraged-ETF mirror of the NVDA/AVGO structural break already flagged in the 2026-07-07 monster scan.
Weakening / no stabilization — GLD, GDX, TAN, ICLN, URA all deepened or held near multi-week lows. GDX and URA remain in outright collapse.
Early stabilization, unconfirmed — KWEB and FXI both posted meaningful RSI recoveries (48.5→55.3, 38.8→50.5) while regime tags (collapse/downtrend) haven't flipped yet. Watch for a golden cross before treating as a real turn.
Too-young / no baseline — 13 new tickers, mostly ungraded; QTUM's feed is two sessions stale (07-09).
Entry Zones
| Ticker | Price | Zone | RSI | vsSMA200 | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTUM | $155.57 | Watch for feed refresh | 48.9 | +26.9% | Cleanest uptrend in the thematic sleeve, not extended — confirm fresher data before acting |
| KWEB / FXI | $26.38 / $33.48 | Watch for golden-cross flip | 55.3 / 50.5 | -18.4% / -10.3% | Sharpest RSI recoveries this cycle; still death-crossed, don't chase the bounce alone |
| XBI / JETS | $159.03 / $32.09 | Wait for a pullback entry | 65.5 / 58.1 | +27.2% / +18.1% | Cooled cleanly from overbought; a further RSI dip toward 50-55 would be the next entry, not current levels |
| TAN | $54.96 | Watch SMA200 hold | 38.3 | +1.1% | Golden cross cushion nearly gone; a close below SMA200 would flip the trend |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | QQQM, QQQ, VOO, VTI, IWM, SMH, VGT, XLK, FTEC, CLOU, SKYY | Healthy uptrends, not extended, no action needed |
| 🔍 WATCH | XBI, JETS, LABU, KWEB, FXI, TAN, QTUM | Cooling from overbought or early-stage stabilization — confirm before entry |
| ⚠️ CAUTION | SOXL | Trend-flipped weak-down while still massively extended — decay risk compounding on a broken short-term trend |
| ❌ AVOID | GDX, URA, GLD | Continued collapse/pullback, no stabilization signal |
| 🔍 NO BASELINE | RAM, SPCH, SSPC, SPCQ, MRVU, CDNG, FOMG, ENTL, CQTM, WQTM, DISK, LAZR, MVLL | Too-young or freshly volatile; needs at least one more scan cycle |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| SOXL trend | If the weak-down flip deepens rather than resolves, it's a leading tell for the whole semis complex — cross-reference against the monster scan's NVDA/AVGO break |
| TAN's SMA200 hold | Cushion is down to +1.1%; a close below SMA200 would be the first real trend-down confirmation in the solar sleeve |
| KWEB/FXI golden-cross status | Both posted the sharpest RSI recoveries in the universe this cycle; a golden-cross flip would upgrade these from "bounce" to "trend change" |
| QTUM feed freshness | Two sessions stale (07-09) — confirm the latest print before treating the +26.9% vs SMA200 read as current |
| New too-young cohort | 13 fresh tickers need a scan or two of history before any tier assignment is meaningful |
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.